Key question from @IEA OMR? What led to the -2 mmbd QoQ drop in @IEA fcst demand from Q4/23 to Q3/24? Probably 2x normal pre-Covid QoQ drop. If Q1/24 is low, then it subsequent quarters likely low. Also calling peak #Oil demand in OECD. #OOTT

Bit of a surprise? North Dakota sees growing #Oil production in H2/23. See 👇SAF Group transcript. "But we ought to be able to finish the year in that 1.2 million barrel a day range with $70 to $75 oil prices“ says NDIC Director Helms. #OOTT

#EnergyTransition Habeck warning on winter 24/25 is also likely a set up for why Germany will need to keep using #Coal (See 👇Reuters 09/28/22) "temporarily" for longer or at least for winter 23/24 even if Putin does't do a #NatGas squeeze play. #OOTT

China's stalling recovery. Scheduled domestic flights -1.2% WoW to 93,328, back to mid-Apr levels. Scheduled "over" next 4-wk is increasing to 103,217 flights is -13,4% vs 119,180 flights that were scheduled on Mar 28 for Apr. Thx @BloombergNEF Claudio Lubis #OOTT

Big negative to prices in 2022/23: Biden has been able to keep Russia #Oil #PetroleumProducts supply on the market but hurt their netbacks. Thx @GMJournalist for graphing @Kpler showing RUS oil & products exports in line with pre-Invasion. #OOTT

Why wait to 24/25? Surely Putin can find a lame contract issue to stop #NatGas via UKR for winter 23/24. EU was saved 22/23 winter with 2nd warmest DJF & 10th warmest Mar on record. it was leave the windows open & not crank up the furnace. #OOTT #NatGas…

This is Iran's reminder that the deal is JCPOA & not anything else when they say "We confirm no such thing as negotiations for an interim agreement or new arrangements to replace the nuclear deal" Must figure #Biden will keep turning a blind eye to their increasing exports in…

of all the days to be stuck on an airplane. can’t imagine the excitement and tension at ⁦@RBCCanadianOpen⁩ watching ⁦@ntaylorgolf59⁩ battling on the back nine.

SAF Group June 11, 2023 Energy Tidbits memo is posted on SAF Group website. this 71-pg energy research memo expands upon & covers more items than tweeted this week. Available at news/insights section of SAF website #Oil #OOTT #LNG #NatGas #EnergyTransition

See 👇Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz to @dan_murphy "I believe that within this month, hopefully the month after. I don’t want to bet on gambling. But it is I think the physical market is telling us something. I think the futures market is telling us something else it’s a…

Will #Biden accept Iran Supreme Leader offer this morning for some sort of nuclear deal? "There is nothing wrong with a deal in this field as long as the nuclear infrastructure remains intact,” Ayatollah Khamenei said reports PressTV #OOTT

Reality Check holding back #Hydrogen at scale. Just now Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz "people talk a lot about hydrogen. But, again, i would stress where are the incentives that will make the offtaker commit to the offtake" #OOTT #EnergyTransition

Today's @NOAA 6-10 & 8-14 day temperature outlook covering June 16-24 calls for normal/below normal for NE and West US. Above normal in South. Shouldn't be a catalyst for #NatGas prices. #OOTT

great day for the rafters down the Elbow River in #Calgary. 27C. river is very low for early June. normally can’t see the rocks. only 10 days from the 10th anniversary of the great flood that flooded the houses

#Vortexa crude #Oil floating storage at June 9 est 95.14 mmb, -10.67 mmb WoW vs revised up big by +17.32 mmb June 2 of 105.81 mmb. Floating is only small fraction of onshore storage, but still want to watch to see if more upward revisions this week. Thx @Vortexa @business #OOTT

Less Russian #Oil available for export. @ja_herron reports peak of RUS refinery maintenance has passed. Refined +94,000 b/d this wk to 5.29 mmb/d. See 👇05/27 tweet: fits normal seasonal timing for increasing RUS refinery runs, which means less oil for export. #OOTT

Stalled China recovery leads to China onshore #Oil stocks at 2-yr high. @business John Liu, Sarah Chen reporting on: @Kpler data: onshore stocks 963 mmb in June, 966 mmb in May. see 👇graph. @Vortexa onshore stocks 960 mmb. #OOTT