Iranian barrels are already on the market. Timing of the big decrease in floating storage started in Q3 last year. The lack of sanctions been the case for almost a year now.

Oil is not selling off because Goldman downgraded some price target. No. It’s selling off because physical market remains weak. Brent backwardation is almost gone. Need inventories to draw, when it does, prices will rebound.

You wouldn't know by watching oil prices, but Nasdaq is down vs S&P energy this week... 🤔

Crude imports remain elevated, crude exports remain depressed. We see a large crude build for next week. 3-2-1 cracks continue to outperform, and we see product storage being flat to down.

The threat of Iranian barrels returning is not what it used to be. For the physical oil market, the sudden availability of Iran's floating storage was always a big threat. That's no longer the case today following the destocking we've seen. Source: Kpler

In May, Iran exported ~1.4 million b/d of visible crude. Including shadow fleets, this figure is likely closer to ~1.8 million b/d. If a deal is done with the US, this would put them at their max of ~2.8 million b/d (crude exports).

Twitter is hilarious. Just because I’m pointing out that I’m wrong about paper balances, I am somehow now bearish. Keyboard warriors remain undefeated 😂

Saudis are not fking around.

Saudi reduced crude exports in May by 1 million b/d. Assuming this level holds for June and the additional 1 million b/d cuts occur in July. We could see Saudi crude exports dip well below ~6 million b/d.

And you wonder why Bloomberg is on the ban list 😂

Not to mention that EIA's weekly report is underestimating production by ~400k b/d. Our tracker shows production to be between 12.55 to 12.6 million b/d today.

Massive EIA adjustment came from overstated crude exports and imports. Modified adjustment shows ~+900k b/d. Last week's report was an exception as our modified adjustment plunged below zero. Weekly reports can be messy from this viewpoint.

This is where 2023 will start to separate itself from 2022. With demand where it is, if US oil demand continues to trend higher, refinery throughput will need to materially increase. If not, then you will see product storage trend lower vs 2022's increase.

US oil demand continues to trend in the right direction.

Heads up. Elevated crude imports continue, and crude exports drop materially w-o-w. Expect a large EIA crude build next week. Finalized estimates out tomorrow.

Woo… not surprised by WSJ and Bloomberg being banned. But Reuters? Wow OPEC+…

This chart explains perfectly why US natural gas prices remain depressed.

Heads up. We see a build in crude this week, mostly from SPR. API vs EIA running error blew out last week. API will be more bullish on crude than EIA this week. This is what we wrote.

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