Fair point but keep in mind outside of select mega caps, multiples much lower. Hitting these earnings forecasts (only possible with healthy economy) = many on low multiples will see earnings & valuation upside. Though S&P 500 in aggregate may be pressured by mega caps.

This from Depot points to solid mid-term spend on home but also why house prices aren’t crashing. Vacancy at record lows, aging stock & unlike 2008, buyers > sellers. 40% of homes mortgage free & of balance, 80% fixed below 5%. 🤷‍♂️ $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $WSM $XHB $SPY

Oft repeated but still impressive arguments from Home Depot on why DIY/DIFM has bright LT outlook. Equally valid for mid/upper end US consumers generally: Homeowners with above average income & big gains in wealth in recent years. $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF $SPY $WSM

Like Mercedes, Jaguar Land Rover also points to improved supplies of chips and parts & plans to deliver a record year. Importantly, despite improved supply, demand for new models is 'buoyant' as well heeled continue to spend. $MBGYY $RACE $BMWYY $LVMUY $CFRUY $XLY

India is important but still small for Mercedes. Improved supply of locally assembled cars = normalising conditions for auto parts. But to a point. Imported top-end model waitlists still 8 - 24 months. Demand still strong. $MBGYY $VWAGY $BMWYY $RACE $F $GM $TSLA $XLY

Very robust wage gains. Yes +7.2% is sub inflation of 10%, but still means more absolute £s of disposable income in people's pockets. Coupled with record high employment, key to why UK (sick man of Europe) consumption is confounding expectations & surprising on upside.

This piece is light on detail especially on its claim about web sales vs 2019. Directionally, UK spend shift to services no different to other countries. But in US, for example, web sales are already outpacing physical store sales significantly again. $AMZN $XRT $XLY

And this is supposed to be news to his shareholders & analysts? 🤨 $SF $XLF $JPM $MS $BAC $GS $WFC

And he thinks this is ‘news’ to his shareholders & analysts? 🤨

Still vividly remember a multiple choice question. What % of British population is Jewish? Options (and I kid you not): a. 0.3%, b. 0.4% c. 0.5% d. 0.6%. 🤯

Bit confused by all the comments about strength in gold. Prices have gone nowhere since mid 2020. And the recent rebound is only after a plunge late last year. It’s actually been a shockingly bad inflation hedge. 🤷‍♂️

You associate Murdoch's papers with sensationalism but @FT? The 'worlds largest jeweller' has a market cap below $3 billion... $SIG

Latest global pricing moves by Louis Vuitton: iconic stuff > €5000 up double digit, bags at/below €2000 flat. US flat across board, partly to cover big gap with EU. Evident within LV how much stronger top end luxury is vs entry-level stuff. $LVMUY $HESAY $CPRI $BURBY

This is a pointless piece. US has deepest/most varied capital markets in world & so perhaps valid concern about tech dominance. Europe has more unlisted businesses + quality of those listed is often not great, why strong businesses get high multiples.

Kraft Heinz on 'tough' retailer negotiations with Walmart & others on big grocery price rises being pushed through. Confirms they weren't tough at all... $WMT $KR $KHC $GIS $PG $UL $CL $PEP $XLP $XLY

Amex CEO on why he doesn't buy $JPM guide of card charge-offs being 50bp higher in 2025 vs 2019. Expects normalisation but not this year. $AXP base is much higher quality both vs 2019 & vs peers. $XLF $XLY $C $COF $XLY

Small business is more challenged at Amex on goods & services. That is still playing out. However, even here, travel & entertainment are NOT slowing down. $AXP $XLF $XLY $MAR $HLT $AAL $DAL $UAL $SPY

Amex latest to confirm travel & entertainment staying strong. Bookings = balance of year will stay strong. Goods slowed in March but have stabilised for $AXP consumer. $XLY $XLF $ABNB $MAR $AAL $HLT $DAL $UAL $BNKG $SPY

Amex CEO on why he has confidence in guide for year, and not just in his business. Unemployment is very low & jobs are relatively plentiful. Will need to rise significantly from here to hurt $AXP. $XLF $XLP $XLY $SPY

Bank of America CEO makes a point usually lost in discussion about normalising credit trends. 2019 itself was a 40-year low on charge-offs. Even if we get back to that level, implies very strong credit quality. 💪 $BAC $AXP $C $JPM $COF $XLF $XLY $XRT $SPY

$CPRI CEO pointed this out a few times on call. Yes, many luxury companies cited a slowdown in US in Q1. But virtually no one (bar Gucci, which admitted US stumble was mostly execution) saw performance degrade to this extent. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY

Nordstrom says Rack improving but gap with $TJX remains huge. Even making adjustments favorable to $JWN, Rack comp -6% vs -3% in Christmas Q. With Marshalls comping 5%, gap widened 100bp to 11%. $ROST

Nordstrom, usually poster child for inventory mismanagement, says inventory is clean but also believes most others are too. So yes, demand is softer but margin impact will be more muted. $JWN $M $KSS $XLY $XRT $SPY

Hesitate to take anything Nordstrom says at face value, but as California-heavy retailer, April being much better, with continuing improvement in May is significant in that scale of March drop was possibly one-off $JWN $XRT $XLY $XLP $SPY