I've spoken/written about it before but the last one (moving from 1-2% annual declines to stabilizing production) is the type of thing that sounds marginal at first glance but actually matters a great deal to the S/D in the medium-term given the size of the global production base
June 14, 2023, 1:53 p.m.
Long thread for a couple of months back on the fuzzy but critical topic of the "base decline".
June 14, 2023, 1:53 p.m.
The "peak" is catchier but the deceleration in demand growth in 2026-2028 that they flag (& I agree with) is a bigger deal (imo). Demand growth going from 2+ mb/d to 1 mb/d to 0.5 mb/d p.a. will be a bigger test for the market than going from +0.1 to -0.1 at the "peak".
June 14, 2023, 1:23 p.m.
That's the strategy. OSP hike allows them to meet their customer "demand" (nominations) in full despite cuts and force Asian buyers to pull on the Atlantic Basin into seasonal tightness - restoring backwardation in the process. As long as China plays along, it should work.
June 12, 2023, 4:27 p.m.
The reaction matters as much as the news itself. Setting aside the credibility of Iran reports - the violence of the price reaction on the downside to a whiff of upward supply risk tells you all you need to know about the underlying market bias. That's what OPEC is up against.
June 8, 2023, 5:08 p.m.
