Tbh, the vast majority of accounting isn't subjective. However, accountants spend the majority of their time on the 5-10% of things that are subjective. Some industries more impacted than others by this. No matter the story you want to tell, everything will balance eventually

Am I the only whose pressure cooked food turns out 3x worse than slow cooking it?

👀

@cckanaan I'm not taking a strong position on rates one way or another but hard to take BoC forecasts as gospel after the whole "rates will be low for a very very long time" speech

Short

Welcome to #EFT

Can't wait to see the tax on the Apple Vision Pro. Keep the tax until VR headsets return to their normal historical pricing!

$PD.to and $pten both confirming US dayrates in low $30s. $pd.to noting that Cda was short 5 super spec rigs

I'm here for a White Lotus Succession crossover but also a Home Alone White Lotus crossover

Remember that one time the TRC tried to organize an OPEC style cut and it went horribly

Guess the op cost increase largely attributable to increase in AB power prices, but not sure on capex unless that's net of itc. My quick numbers for a price entropy needs to receive per tonne of carbon is in excess of C$100...below the final ctax in Cda but still quite high

$aav.to Entropy costs seem to have missed the mark by quite a bit, both operating and capital. On capital they had an indicative project costs at $475/tpa while ph 1b at glacier is supposed to be $856 and ph 2 at $730 Op costs of $27/t at ph 1 and $22 for ph 2 vs. $15/t initial

Context to this - 24/23 prod growth estimates for super majors are in 3% range, US/cdn seniors in 3-4% and smid/Jr marginally higher. Expecting 0% means you're either going to be disappointed or know E&Ps won't stick to it I suppose!

What does E&P capital discipline mean to you in terms of production growth?

It's 100% $nbr

Absolute thunder dome for the US rig count right now We're roughly 1 yr out from oil mooning, so wouldn't surprise me if part of this is a bunch of 1 yr contracts rolling off.

Excited to read the @WTIBull take on Argo Gold - I'm sure it'll be positive. For reference - their literal corp pres headline is "Now an Oil Producer at the Lindbergh Sparky Oil Project"

But if you think Canada is the play, probably makes sense to buy $tcw.to at the same valuation as STEP if US goes to 0

And you LNG in the offing. If US goes to 0 EBITDA again (I think it is probably closer to 10/20mm unless oil goes sub 60), Cda should be pretty resilient and hard to imagine consol ebitda drops below $100mm unless you think cos are moving spreads to Cda bc US gets so messy

$step.to interesting from a valuation standpoint... Traded at a similar EV near the end of 2019/pre COVID 20 However, in 19 outlook in Cda (2/3rds+ of EBITDA) was much bleaker due to egress issues + LNG Cda being several yrs away. Very diff today w/ no egress concernsa

@puppyeh1 Given it 14x'd from covid lows I feel like the lesson would be more so it has to be exceptionally cheap

From frac when rates mooned with everyone saying mkt was sold out (obviously not sold out today)

Really adding equipment meaning those breakevens will float higher as there's equipment and ofs cos can push pricing. Costs will slowly switch from operating econs for ofs to full cycle returns. Longer term theme, but it's been playing out in the background and got a taste

Think one thing that breakeven costs for shale underestimate is ofs availability. Historical breakevens (think 2018 thru 21) there was extreme excesses of equip available. Today, there's still excess equip available for mtce production and even for some growth but no one is