Anyone have a current production estimate for Westbrick? Just curious to see if they are still growing aggressively or have pared back given the weakness in natural gas. TIA.

Been away for a few weeks and looks like all I missed was approximately 10,000 shitposts by @WTIBull. Few.

@ValueNotDeadYet @NormanLevine100 @trend_bullish @NonObviously Bearish. Talking to parents the other day and they were floored by how much it cost to take the grandkids to The Super Mario Bros movie. They said they are going to start sneaking in their own snacks. Real on the ground research right there.

@WilliamLaceyYYC @WTIBull I'm still struggling with the $KEL story and don't see someone paying $1.7B for Wembley. I'm sure they'll do something at some point but the stock is lower than it's IPO price from 10 years ago....how long do you wait? Good assets + good mgmt but not sure what happens next. 🤷‍♂️

@Rory_Johnston Statistically what measures have proven to be the most accurate forecasters?

@cckanaan If memory serves me correctly $CVE also has a large legacy land position and large underutilized gas plant at Elmworth. Don't think they have a lot of Montney rights however.

$NPI down nearly 15% today but I haven't followed the name that closely for a few years. Too much? Too little? Thoughts?

@cckanaan @RyanRMooney PE will generally be looking for a minimum IRR of 20% on their initial investment so you could reverse engineer an equity price that returns something in that range. I haven't followed the name that closely from inception but I'm sure you can dig up the details.

@Josh_Young_1 What do you think needs to happen to close this valuation gap?

@djlowe You a buyer of $PD or $ESI here?

@cckanaan I personally think they just want a liquidity event to get out like so many other PE firms have done. They've been in these names for so long and rode it out through 2020 so why not get out if there's a window? Doing a mashco with $PIPE just seems like it'd extend things forever.

@djlowe I guess in theory they could complete a secondary at a premium to the current trading price and rerate all shares but I'm not sure how realistic that scenario is. They are trying to take out the warrants at least. 🤷‍♂️

My continued thoughts on $HHRS are summarized below. I still don't get the name; same story for $KEC.

Vern Yu is a solid pick for $ALA. Still prefer $KEY or $GEI but $ALA is slowly regaining it's footing.

@ValueNotDeadYet @BubleQe @jim_duffus @Michael71718318 @AdamWoodward11 @HBK_Oil I think 8x is where it has typically bounced around and is fair for the name. Should trade at a 2-3 turn discount to $KEY $GEI $PPL but a premium to $PKI given their refining exposure. Not much "organic" growth if any and I don't bake in any future value for acquisitions.

@ValueNotDeadYet @BubleQe @jim_duffus @Michael71718318 @AdamWoodward11 @HBK_Oil They don’t have a lot of peers so what’s your definition of “not cheap”? They’re quasi-midstream with huge barriers to entry but comes with seasonality and is partially dependent on the economy. I just buy it for the $0.72/sh dividend which I expect to be maintained.

Am I the only one who is absolutely devastated by the trend of high-yield companies paying out dividends quarterly instead of monthly? That monthly just hits differently.

$SPB is a lot more interesting to me here at ~$10/sh. Large holder sold 13MM shares at $9.79. Company will be issuing 48.8MM shares at $10.25 for the Certarus transaction. It's a super boring stock that I buy and hold for yield with no expectation of capital appreciation.

@djlowe Haven't really seen that in my broader neighborhood and I watch fairly religiously. Not a lot of inventory and a mix of new infills, older infills, renovated bungalows and teardowns. Sellers market for sure but not crazy by any means. Guess I'm in trashville? 🤷‍♂️