Difficult to call it the “Special Military Retreat”

Just seen the most ugly and pointless car since the Chrysler PT Cruiser (Model Y was close) Please welcome the Volkswagen T-Roc Cabrio

In Fatih Birol metaverse, peak demand means OECD demand falling faster than ROW including China, India, etc grows Norway with cheap electricity and massive oil subsidies to push EVs, has not seen demand fall. Why will OECD who do not have Norways privileged position do opposite?

I have had to listen to the nonsense that has come out the mouths of Fatih Birol, ABS, etc. 230km per day flying seems way simpler

My Wife last week decided she wanted a new car. So spent Saturday morning looking round the showrooms. She had no idea what she wanted. But without prompting every salesman told her don't bother with an EV, not worth it. Even though their availability was better and price higher

Peak oil in 2028? The walk back on this will be fun to watch.

El Niño is likely to have a significant effect on Asia and Oceania agricultural and Industrial sectors. Which should see a reduction in demand for diesel demand.

Too many Analysts are fixated that futures price equates to supply/demand fundamentals. Futures is an intra-day trading tool where volatility is key and actual direction is not important to making a profit. Watch EIA inventories. So many times lately market done opposite of data.

Traders are saying there is a lot of crude available in the market currently. Differentials falling. These are 2H cargoes for processing later in 2H. I am getting the feeling that forecasts are incorrect. That supply is underestimated and demand is overestimated.

The market is currently selling 2H crude that will be processed much later in 2H. Physical market not suggesting any severe tightness. Maybe demand is where it should be and it is the forecasting that is a bit poor. When everybody is the same maybe just the wrong assumptions used

Again, renewables are partly the fault of needing to put a coal fired power station on standby. Politics Will only blame it on gas, Ukraine waretc and demand more renewables. Vicious circle of nonsense.

Saudi crude oil allocations for July Chinese state owned companies nominations are lower. Chinese teapots nominations are higher and balances lower state owned Therefore, for a 1mbpd cut they need Europe to nominate less else they will be drawing from inventories

Only way you get a swing from sour to sweet is 1. natural gas/energy prices rocket. 2. LSFO needs to rally massively vs HSFO. 3. Petchem market has to rocket to take naphtha. The last two need the economy to be on fire. At moment the swing is from sweet to sour.

@PriapusIQ Well the Tories did leave Liz Truss in charge for a few days. Like leaving Homer Simpson in charge of a nuclear plant Just saying.

@SStapczynski I would be careful putting that in your pocket. Could cause a lot of damage. Not seen a flash drive that big since the 1990's

The physical market has not been particularly strong lately either. Differentials are not strong as he suggests. Is it more likely that a Royal Energy Minister is being told things he wants to hear rather than being told actual reality?

Is that why fossil fuel demand is still going up?

Is gloating about creating surprises not creating uncertainty? Telling traders he will keep them on their toes not creating uncertainty? Doing opposite of OPEC research not create uncertainty? Cutting production not create -ve sentiment about demand?

13. It also looks like Saudis have pushed the button too early and it had little effect. The funny thing is they coerced themselves into this cut, because they literally cannot keep their mouths closed. They continually need approval like small children.

12. 31mb draw in world where global inventories of around 10 billion barrels of products and crude are available is not going to make much difference. It really just balances the draw from the US SPR during May nd June.

11. This is likely reason there has been a weakening in differentials this week as the shortage is likely less than thought because saudis have not cut exports as much as the 1mbpd production cut. They just withdrew from their own inventories which they have all over the world

10. That means the cuts have even less effect on the market than Saudis thought because it means consuming nations need to reduce their inventories. It also means that market during July is not as tight as it could have been

9. The saudí osp increases are trying to minimize the amount of exports they make. They are trying to minimize the amount contract holders ask for in July. If levels are the same as June then Saudi will need to draw from their own inventories to cover shortage.

8. Or 2. Cut Saudi Arabian inventories by 31mb The reason it could cut Saudi inventories is if total of Saudi burn +Saudi refinery throughput+ Saudi exports are more than 9mbpd.

7. Saudis cut production by 10% from 10mbpd to 9mbpd. however they only gained 2% in price ($1.54/$75.99). That is not a particularly good return on investment and credibility. The one month cut could have two effects. 1. Cut inventories outside Saudi Arabia by 31mb