It's not 2021 strong but YTD cumulative Chinese LNG imports are strong and getting stronger. JKM finding a level at $14-$16 CAL 24?

Gulf butane at 20 year + lows vs crude. Propane not much better. A good time to brush up on your NGL universe (AR, RRC, TOU, ARX, NVA, POU ect)

Sneak trade on Iran should be Urals as the black market loses a major seller on this deal.

Appalachia just humming flat. No room for local growth into local demand until winter. MVP a 24 story.

Permian also looking pretty flat

The hayensville curtailment is getting really meaningful. 1.5 Bcfpd from peak. While gas in plays like appalachia have a history of curtailement this is brand new behaviour from the Hayensville folk; wiping out all of the YTD growth in 3 weeks. Perryville $1.97/mcf.

Great visual on out and under performance.

@Rory_Johnston Dignam is the cop voice inside my head.

@Rory_Johnston

It took some time. But Craig and I are now kindred spirits. Really have enjoyed seeing your process evolve Craig.

@Rory_Johnston I keep coming back to, every cut is an add down the road. It would be supportive, but unless they are willing to roll the geopolitical dice, the pressure to add back at $90/$100 is that much more. Makes it a very managed market.

Epic flag by ISI's Rich Ross. S&P 500 futures positioning at its most shorted ever.

Haynesville doing their part. Ex today's blip, 700 MMcfpd off peak; growth trend 'broken'. Perryville $1.65 today with cold June start. Max pain?

In May: Industrial natural gas demand showed the first Y/Y increase in 14 months Supply adds slowed to 4 Bcfpd YoY; 5th sequential month of lower Y/Y supply growth Gas and hydro were the only generation sources with Y/Y growth. Solar and Wind had their worst Y/Y month in over…

@rockcreekfreak Took growth co from 25% to 30% which i think is an exaggeration at 5% growth but the point still stands. low cost of capital should grow, high cost should not.

@rockcreekfreak It’s a fair point. 5% isn’t going to make a big difference but there would be some grind.

What's growth worth? Large profitable low variance business = A lot. High variance, risky business = Nearly nothing. In tech, companies try to growth themselves to from the latter to the former, and VC's historically supported the risky to safe transition (and risk!). In E&P…

Had this flagged to me, great article. Your EV is natural gas fueled!

Forward earnings yield effectively at datum vs government debt here. (E/P - Government Debt Yield = ~0%)

Forward expectations for earnings growth >10% for the S&P 500. 19x current P/E and 17x forward P/E.

Debt is the fire in the attic that equity hasn't picked up on downstairs. Given liquidation pecking order this usually is in reverse.

Dispersion at Covid and 2008 levels

Signs of an unhealthy market... Passive market cap bull hug = big business momentum factor at an all time level of violence.