The IEA is now forecasting 2H'23 draws of ~2MM Bbl/d, flat 1H'24, and then ~1.5MM Bbl/d draws in 2H'24. Collectively = 639MM Bbl draw. If even just half right, that would still take inventories to their lowest levels since at least 2007 (farthest back my data goes). Bullish?!?

Interest in mid-cap Canadian energy stocks at a new low, as measured by Bloomberg search interest according to @JeremyMcCreaCFA. Definitely matches the mood right now, and is odd considering rock solid balance sheets, high free cash flow yields, and growing buybacks and…

We remain laser focused on impending global inventory draws we forecast to begin in July, and appreciate @JonErlichman having me on @BNNBloomberg to explain our increasingly rare and out-of-consensus bullish view on oil.

Buyback update: in May, with WTI averaging ~$71.50/bbl, Canadian energy stocks according to RBC bought back over $709MM in stock, representing 27% of all share buybacks in Canada.

Correction: >200MM Bbls anticipated stock draw for July+August (3.6MM Bbl/d). Total 2H'23 draw of ~375MM Bbls.

HRH ABS: "I think the physical market is telling us something, I think the futures (paper) market is telling us something else." Also said the chasm between the 2 markets should narrow "within this month, hopefully the month after" which lines up with our projected inventory…

The discount on Canadian heavy oil (WCS) is now down to $11/bbl, the lowest in ~ a year. "We remain bullish", especially on Canadian heavy oil producers with 30+ years of reserves, rock solid balance sheets, record free cashflow, and a commitment to return 75%-100% of it back to…

Oil down $3 on a potential US/Iran deal that would allow Iran to export 1MM Bbl/d. Guess what? The oil is already flowing anyways and these are just the "official"/observable barrels! Can someone tell the algos?

Always great meeting up with Jan Stuart of Piper Sandler, an oil strategist who both informs and entertains at the same time. Meeting takeaways: demand is just fine and inventory draws this Summer “should” narrow the chasm between the paper and physical markets for oil.

This "weak demand" you talk about...is it in the room with us right now?

My feeling today when one of the best run shale companies in the US admits openly that they only have five years of core/Tier 1 inventory left (and another 5 years of Tier 2). Massive implications for US energy “independence”, the future call on OPEC, and global geopolitics.

Don’t fret over today’s muted move in price following HRH ABS’s “lollipop cut”. So long as we are directionally accurate on the magnitude of Summer inventory draws, the oil price will take care of itself. For now, the market needs to SEE it to BELIEVE it. All in time.

Prior to Saudi's new 1MM Bbl/d cut, global inventories were already set to hit a 6+ year low by year-end (even with a US/European recession). Now, Q3 stock draws alone should = ~10% of total OECD inventories. The chasm between the financial/physical markets for oil is about to…

You can't say he didn't warn them! I'll have a full run down on what today's OPEC/Saudi announcement means on @CNBCi tonight at 10:15pm ET.

Why do we see MEANINGFUL upside for energy stocks at ~CURRENT oil price, thus getting enormous free optionality to a stronger price in the months ahead? Company XYZ, a 10% weighting in the Ninepoint Energy Fund, will free cashflow 110% of their current share price over the next 5…

Every day above $70WTI is a good day.

Sentiment, as measured by net length, is as bad as it was during the COVID lows and energy investors are exhausted, all the while oil demand sets records month after month. I haven't given up on the year, find out why:

What a great day to go on @marketcall and talk about oil fundamentals. I haven’t given up on the year and neither should you. Join me at 12ET!

I cannot recall the chasm between narrative and reality ever being wider than it is today.

Why a higher oil price is not a "want" but a "need."