S&P 500 after the Volatility Index (VIX) closed at a 2-year low, and it's < 14. Interestingly, 11 precedents took place in 2004 and 2005 when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates, with the last instance occurring after the 9th hike.

Thanks!

The disconnect between small and large-cap indexes is one of the most significant in history. For only the 6th time in 40 years, the distance from a 2-year high spread between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 widened to 15%.

The Long-Term Trend Model, one of seven components in the Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM), reversed from bearish to bullish for the 26th time since 1932.

The avg stock in the Discretionary sector is doing much worse than the cap-weighted index would have you believe. The 3-month range rank spread between the cap and equal-weighted Discretionary indexes widened to the most significant amount in history.

The 40% club is on the cusp of breaking out to a new cycle high.

For only the 24th time since 1960, a semiconductor index surged by more than 5% and closed at a 12-month high, but not a 24-month high. After similar momentum breakouts, the index was higher a year later every time.

Talk of an AI bubble seems premature for semiconductors.

This is the second year in a row that Zack Johnson made a motivational good luck video for the team. However, this year, a few other major champions joined in. Pretty cool. Go to Lovett Athletics to watch the video.

I usually don't tweet non-market-related information, but this one was too hard to pass up. So proud of my son, bottom middle, for winning his second straight team title and contributing to a three-peat. He's a rising junior, so you never know.

The poor Nasdaq breadth charts are making the rounds again this morning. Of course, none provide any statistics. Please retweet this chart.

The percentage of sub-industry groups with a positive 1-year rolling return cycled from < 20% to > 50%. Since 1942, the S&P 500 has never shown a loss a year later after similar reversals.

While Bloomberg and other platforms maintain a breadth time series for the percentage of issues with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of > 70 or < 30, history is limited. Here's a historical perspective using sub-industry groups back to 1952.

For only the 6th time since 1959, not a single S&P 500 equal-weighted sector is showing a positive relative trend score versus the S&P 500. Similar periods with narrow market leadership have not foreshadowed a doom-and-gloom scenario for the S&P 500 over a medium-term basis.

@lisaabramowicz1 FYI

I had a blast being on the show. Thanks Anne Marie!

The equity-to-money market ratio will surge when cash on the sidelines goes all in on equities.

Over the last three months, not a single Asia-Pacific country ETF outperformed the S&P 500.

Industrial metals are reversing to long-term uptrends, which is interesting given the soft economic data.

The percentage of S&P 500 members outperforming the S&P 500 Index fell below 26% on 2023-03-23. Returns since 3/23: S&P 500 = +5.13% S&P 500 Equal-Weighted = +5.88% Exactly what history suggested. Follow the signal and ignore the noise.

Remember when banks were sleepy institutions? Not a single gap up open of >= 4.5% from 1969 to 1987, the pre-Greenspan era.

For only the 5th time since 1984, crude oil futures (CL1) cycled from a 3-month low to a 3-month high in fewer than 20 trading sessions. If history rhymes, subsequent CPI reports could be interesting.

According to Bianco Research, "eight stocks are keeping the YTD gains in the S&P 500 positive, while the other 492 stocks are collectively down on the year." Here's a chart that provides a historical perspective on the performance trends of S&P 500 stocks versus the index.

On Monday, the 1, 2, 4, and 10-month rate of change for the S&P 500 closed within a range of +1% to -1% for only the 3rd time since 1928.

The S&P 500 Technology sector has more stocks above their 200-day average than any other sector. And the spread between Tech and the S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since June 2020.