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Thanks @Citrini7 for the heads up on this little gem!

Operating income could have and they would still be at 3x long term debt. They've diversified through acquisitions but not sure how much this has decreased cyclicality. No share repurchases as cash lags Net Income. Majority of operations in China. No moat. But niche markets.

$belfb They've gone parabolic. Even in Log. But we're looking at a PE of 10 once you remove their restructuring costs and annualize Q1 results. History of cyclicality. But big back-log and definitely a potential data center beneficiary. Top Ticking it. Long.

CPI numbers seem conducive to stretching equity valuations a little further, imo. MoM Core inflation is still too high but *stable*. Fed will likely pause. A hike = tighter lending. A cut = YC Steepening. Both might hurt stonks. Stability + Pause = predictability.

Note: he landed on a nearby roof and only suffered some fractured ribs.

So I read about this. The dude with the Diamond Hands was the restaurant owner. You know he put his life and soul into this business. He's not going to let a mere Act of God get in his way. You can at least read a 10k before becoming an owner.

@Mayhem4Markets I'm in the Upper Valley of New Hampshire. It's f*cking booming here. No slow down at all. Not even close.

@lhamtil Im guilty of getting into this trend. Regretfully, my Achilles wasn't .

And 2 long term ones. $orbia +1% $afya +19% Debt levels in the environment scares me. Will offset gains by selling $anx -42%. Limit order in.

Closed out some shorter term plays this morning. $kre +18% $iat +5% $pags +26%

Sorry but Chat GPT is useless.

I'm not sure how I feel about $tsla sharing their charging network. Tesla' charging network constitutes a durable competitive advantage; perhaps the only moat in an otherwise cutthroat competitive industry. Even if they receive royalties. They're giving it up. 🤔

Net Income after Impairment Charges for all of my investments in 2023. 🤦‍♂️ #goodwillhunting

If the world diversifies supply chains away from China yet never severs ties with China, Then say goodbye to Goods Inflation forever.

@Mayhem4Markets It's been fun

I generally agree and am invested accordingly. I might also take it a step further. Unprofitable growth shitcos have run out of financing. These companies have had extremely bloated SG&A that is about to get destroyed. See $twtr. Margin expansion is a tailwind for growth cos.

Current market cap is $7,800. Divided by my Tintin adjusted FCF of $268, I have them trading at 29x TTM 2022 FCF. Or about a 5% FCF Margin. FY 2023 Sales Guidance is about $6,500. My 5% FCF margin = $325 So $vrt is now trading at 24x 2023 FCF. 3/

Conclusion: Not cheap. But not wildly expensive either. An AI Megatrend might be needed to justify at today's valuation. At ~$15 per share you have it trading at 18x forward FCF. $13-$14 per share would be pretty comfortable. But you might miss the bubble! End/

They are active acquirers so they have a lot of Amortization. They are pretty Capex light (~1.5% of Rev, from what I can tell). They have some debt and interest expense is meaningful. I think (EBITDA - Int expense - capex) is a good proxy for FCF for $vrt. I get ~$268. 2/

Spending a few minutes on Vertiv $vrt this morning. Looks like a very competitive company with a 'picks and shovel' approach to a potential AI Megatrend. (Thanks Citrini) But they are bit pricey. Some *very* quick thoughts: 1/

Thank you @cardinalcap12 for pointing this out!

Regarding $atmu. Taking quick look. The debt plays a role. I didn't see it on the balance sheet. However the Pro forma P&L does include like ~$30mm for interest expense. So current price is more like 14x 2022 Net Income and 11x 2022 FCF. Not bad. Not amazing.

Nailed it. 🤦‍♂️