The Devil owns $BAKKA - Salmon at all time highs.

Salmon prices ramping in to the off-season, up 18% this week and 36% this month. $BAKKA up 60% from October lows 😉

Elders $ELD $ELD.AX down big with an ASX speeding ticket along the way. "Nothing to see here, but oops, we did tell our institutional investors things are turning south"👀

Novo Nordisk is by far the most expensive stock in my portfolio. Every quarter I look at it's performance and think "time to trim" or "need to rebalance it", but just leave it as a dividend grower. 😬 h/t @European_DGI

CSL's PE has come down slightly over the past few years, but still remains high at 43x. Same on EV/EBIT. Maybe there's some uplift coming down the pipeline. Meanwhile, Novo has grown to PE=38.6 on today's figures. Outlook with obesity drugs looking very good.

However, over the last three years, Novo (+131%) has massively outperformed CSL (-4%) and the market.

I think $CSL and $NVO are the highest quality health stocks I know of, and compared them in the CSL deep dive. Both have wide moats, high ROIC, and long investment pathways.

Over a long enough time period, you probably can't go wrong. North of 20% CAGR for 15+ years would have given you a 30x return for both CSL and Novo Nordisk.

Novo Nordisk 🇩🇰 $NVO with another great year. 💉+26% Revenue 💉+28% operating profit 💉+18% EPS 💉+13-19% FY23 outlook Danish quality shining through, along with portfolio partner $BAKKA 💪 I've said $NVO would outperform $CSL based on valuations as 🇦🇺 pay too much for growth👇

All I want when I read a Genex $GNX $GNX.AX 4C is no surprises - so today is a win!😬 Down 40% over past six months due to failed takeover, at least operationally things are OK. Solar doing well; Bauldercombe on track; K3-Wind looking good; and no new skeletons for K2-Hydro. 😓

Select Harvest $SHV $SHV.AX is up 5% on "record low almond prices", "lower grade almonds", "15% of crop being revalued or written off" and "$26m impairment on goodwill". Now trading at book value imho with no real earning potential in the short (or medium) term. Patience...⌚️

Norwegian resource rent still looking likely, but impact on $BAKKA is probably positive as it's crushing Norwegian investment in salmon productivity improvements. $BAKKA + 38% since this post:

h/t @paretosec who also reckon spot prices are set to remain high.

Salmon spot prices make the strongest start to the year since .. well, forever. Futures holding up, with +95NOK in 1H23 and +75NOK in 2H23. Salmon super cycle well under way 🎣 $BAKKA $BAKKA.OL

The ASX isn't the only thing roundtripping. It takes a lot of effort and probably some outlandish concentrated bets for your portfolio to deviate from the mean.

A dark chapter of Midway $MWY $MWY.AX closes with a slap on the wrist. To be fair, Midway have substantially improved their transparency and communications since then.

Here's one from the archive when Elders $ELD $ELD.AX was $14.30 vs today's $10.28. Today's result had strong topline growth. But negative operating cash flows, horrible outlook on commodity prices, and inventory +51% to $485m.😬 Need a good CEO👀 https://t.co/eAKikH6n8q

Here's one from the archive on Elders $ELD $ELD.AX when it was trading at $14.30 vs today's $10.28. Strong topline result. But operating cash flows are negative, horrible outlook for commodity prices, and inventory +51% to $485m 😬 https://t.co/eAKikH6n8q

18. The driver of future profit is likely to be more dependent on Faroe Island's technical and cost advantage: bigger hatcheries, bigger smolt, less time in the ocean, and less risk. https://t.co/tTiEFI4fRO

17. It's difficult to know the tax impact for Bakka, but it's important to distinguish b/w Norway and Faroe Island's approach. Norway's tax will push the cost curve out for salmon and benefit Bakka and others, perhaps more than the net increase in taxes.🤷 https://t.co/kzT8qTcjwg

10. The Faroe Islands fishing sector contributes around 15% of jobs, 20% of gross value of production and 90% of exports. Acquaculture/salmon is around 20% of tonnage compared with wild harvests, but 50% of the value. So it's material. https://t.co/OUm4gYkkwX

8. And not to be out done, here is a 177page masters thesis by Farzan Saeed Khan from the Norweigen Schol of Economics in 2021. FWIW, both authors argue $BAKKA is undervalued on DCF and CAPM, but not based on multiple comparison at the time. https://t.co/HMlfjlHbXX