What companies didn’t realize they had sustainable pricing power until inflation set in? $CLH and $WMS come to mind. What else?

Just remember, if you’re upside down on your longs and shorts it’s not your fault. It’s the algos and/or a pod blew up somewhere.

I get a kick out of looking at ten year old corporate slides and seeing what ultimately transpired (not withstanding the flawed logic even back then) $SBGI

If private credit bear case is largely credit risk related, why is $ORCC outperforming $OWL (and the market) so much this year? The former is a proxy for private credit risk whereas the latter is much more exposed to LT AUM growth.

I appreciate the $SCHW bear case on cash sorting but money market flows have come to a virtual halt the past three days. It's only three days but the best three days for MM flows (or lack thereof) in a while ex-tax season.

$IEP underlying holdings getting puked

It's not AI-related so probably irrelevant, but $CACI quietly solidified over $8B in contract awards (ceiling value) over the past several weeks.

@1MainCapital a bunch of the names in 'least at risk' group seem....at risk to me

What is going on at $CTLT?

“average retail transaction prices for new vehicles in March of 2023 were below MSRP for the first time in nearly two years.”

@PandaValue There’s $17B of LTSAs so pretty good visibility. I’m a believer in the LT opportunities in auto and industrial recognizing near term can be choppy given macro. Consensus sets a low bar over the medium term IMO.

$ON guiding to 10%-12% sales CAGR thru 2027. I don’t think consensus has one year of DD growth.

$FLEX trading for ~7x ex-$NXT stake on trough margins while biz positively mix shifts, capacity to buyback 10%+ shares

2H FX tailwind

Looking at cable line extension capex this qtr

$META Q2 rev guide makes the $GOOG consensus estimate look too low looking at relative two year CAGRs, relative sequential growth, etc. I’m probably using false precision here so please ignore.

@1MainCapital Undoubtedly the ones we own in common

If you find yourself getting overconfident or arrogant, just remember that at least a third of your longs will prove to be solid shorts over the next 6 months.

When your teenager daughter experiments with ChatGPT use cases…

This is gonna be one helluva story that I can’t wait to watch. I’ve been good friends with Keith since the 7th grade and despite our friendship there was much that went unsaid. It’s being said now.

@heartof_thesea Will also depend on steepness of yield curve. I believe duration was high 2s in 2018 when they did high teens ROE. Factor in quite a bit of TD cost savings to come and I think they can still generate attractive returns with a 2-handle on duration.

4) Media rights: together as one package should lead to some creative deal making and more interested parties. Also perhaps more PPVs for WWE to extract some extra dollars. Proforma for media rights renewals, cost synergies, etc this may be trading at 12x EBITDA…

2) Site fees: UFC has done a better job of getting site fees for their events. Expect this to come to WWE to greater extent. 3) Cross-promotional opportunities: lots of crossover successes in the past like Lesnar, Batista and Rousey. Expect more of this.

Updated thoughts on $WWE - The UFC deal is a great outcome. Beyond the low balled cost synergies, some great revenue synergy opportunities: 1) Sponsorships: UFC does 2x in sales from sponsorships with 20% the number of events vs WWE. In-ring sponsorships low hanging fruit

@heartof_thesea Ironically, because of PFOF, derivative mix and higher trading volumes/acct, trading as a % of total SCHW revenues is the same now as it was 15 years ago.