Is @theTIKR down or is it just me?

$ILPT @thepupil11 Any actual news out there? NAREIT presentation sounded like a non-event...

Closing the loop on $PKST - again. Probably index inclusion a driver but price has risen significantly and sold my remaining position (~3%) as now ~10% above my NAV estimate. Management should get that secondary offering lines up stat!

@AdamB1438 @alluvialcapital $PKST should issue equity stat if they can - excellent opportunity to deleverage - ND/EBITDA in 5x-6x range would be positive for REIT investors - and significantly derisk their capital recycling / portfolio transformation plan, which will require a lot of CAPEX...

Interesting nugget buried in $PKST June pres. Sold 2 assets in Q2 - Houston office leased to Wood Group for 10 yrs and vacant Denver office. The Good: ~$60m of proceeds from office assets with negative cash NOI today. The Bad: stab. cap rate for Houston probably 9% - 10% range

Houston Cash NOI is negative b/c rent free post Q4 renewal. Houston a tough market but asset quality prob > ave for PKST. End result mixed - accretive capital recycling out of office good, pricing not great - implies a high $20/share NAV (todays SP) @AdamB1438 @alluvialcapital

US industrial REITs down a decent chunk while sector pretty flat - any new coming out of REITWeek? @Mr_Neutral_Man @HedgeyeREITs

This might actually be... good news for apartment REITs? Current supply pipeline is historically high - that will be a near-term headwind without a doubt - but could drop off steeply after that, even in the supply-friendly sunbelt.

$AVB out with an operating update leading up to REITWeek - rental growth outperforming expectations, New England and Metro NY / NJ leading the way with Q2 tracking ahead of Q1. Charlotte notably weak, like-term effective rent growth negative thus far in Q2.

One thing is clear, office REIT implied cap rates are high and office real estate is much cheaper in the public market than the private market. Big question mark is what happens next for office NOI.

Another small shopping center sold in Newport News 30 miles outside of Norfolk. Food Lion anchored, 95% occupied, $6.7m / $105 PSF. Another comp for decent quality secondary market centers - albeit much of $MDRR is tertiary and not grocery anchored so should probe trade cheaper.

Portfolio of shopping centers acquired by HIG in suburban Richmond for $110m / $190 PSF. 3/4 assets sold in 2019 for ~$175 PSF. Better quality than $MDRR Hanover Square in Mechanicsville, which I value at 8.5% cap / $155 PSF but is a comp.

Pretty decent looking non-core sales from $HIW at first glance - small at ~$40m across two assets but at a ~6.5% cap rate. Digging deeper I think Riverbirch is a MOB so probably doing most of the work from a cap rate perspective?

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Not all new data but NYC office motivated/forced sellers coming to market at major value declines. For leveraged buyers in ~60% LTV range, equity looks like a zero on this type of product. I definitely underestimated downside to office values post-COVID.

The biggest risk is that a recession severely impacts retailers and retail fundamentals and we see another wave of retail bankruptcies. Historically retail RE did OK in tech bubble and GFC but got clobbered in '17 due to e-commerce and during COVID-19. Do your own DD! 9/9

I believe $IVT is well-positioned to grow NOI and FFO (2023 growth target of 3.5%-5% and 1%-4% respectively) due to high occupancy and growing rents. They could also be an attractive acquisition target due to low leverage and sunbelt / grocery exposure 8/

I estimate recent acquisitions have been at a ~6% cap rate. This included acquiring the remainder of the PGIM JV Houston assets in Q1 2023 for a ~7% cap rate / ~$200 PSF. I'd argue these assets are lower quality than the portfolio overall and a necessary evil to recap out PGIM 7/

$IVT trades at $21 per share, an ~8% implied cap rate and ~$210 PSF. Approximately 13x 2023e FFO and ~18x my estimate of normalized AFFO. I believe this represents a 20% discount to NAV of ~$26.70 per share at a 6.5% cap rate / $255 PSF. 5/

I estimate recent dispositions have been at a ~7% cap rate but skewed to lower-valued power centers. They sold their 3 assets in Denver in 2022 for a ~6.3% cap rate and ~$240 PSF, which included a power center w/o a grocery anchor (~50% of value) 6/

The $IVT portfolio is the right product in the right locations. Sunbelt markets continue to experience attractive population, employment, and as a result, rental growth. Portfolio 86% grocery anchored, ~55% of rent from essential / QSR, and just 1.1% of rent from BBBY 3/

Balance sheet is in good shape at 5.5x net debt / ebitda, 4.4x fixed charge coverage, w.a. interest rate of 4% / maturity of 4.6 years. In April they swapped the last $100m of floating rate debt so effectively 100% fixed. $86m of cash vs. $110m of mortgages maturing in '23/'24 4/