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Equity REIT Investor

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Website Twitter
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Picture of Equity REIT Investor

The quarter-over-quarter numbers are not bad either. Same-store revenue growth up 1.8%, and same-store NOI up 4.3%. Sure, multifamily is not as hot, but that far from screams decline

Equity REIT Investor
I have come across several different takes that the Phoenix market is *currently* in decline and is more boom/bust oriented. How does that square with Camden $CPT reporting same-property Q4 revenues up 11.3% and same-property NOI up 13.4%?
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Feb. 5, 2023, 12:46 a.m.

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Also, the California performance was really underperforming. Houston and DC are typical markets with below average performance

Feb. 4, 2023, 10:54 p.m.

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I have come across several different takes that the Phoenix market is *currently* in decline and is more boom/bust oriented. How does that square with Camden $CPT reporting same-property Q4 revenues up 11.3% and same-property NOI up 13.4%?

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Feb. 4, 2023, 10:43 p.m.

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Solid earnings for both $MAA and $CPT. Now, 2023 is comparing against the double-digit growth rates of 2022, so it is understandable the level of growth is normalizing. But mid-to-high single digit same-store NOI growth is still encouraging. Valuation is not bad.

Private Eye Capital
$MAA - strong earn-in + decent renewals expected to drive same-store NOI growth of 5.3-7.3% in 2023. $CPT expects something similar (+5%) at the midpoint. Much has been made of supply coming to the sunbelt this year but Class B is priced ~20% lower and should do just fine.
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Feb. 4, 2023, 5:07 p.m.

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However, higher interest expense is taking a nearly 3% hit to their growth. Also, 2023 same-store NOI midpoint projection is only 5% growth, signaling a return to much more normalized levels.

Feb. 4, 2023, 5:01 p.m.

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Even for some growth REITs, higher interest expense is really taking a big bite out of projected 2023 FFO per share levels. I was going through Camden's Q4 report and was surprised that 2023 projected FFO per share was only up 4% at the midpoint compared to 2022 levels.

Feb. 4, 2023, 5:01 p.m.

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Higher interest rates are really starting to impact highly leveraged REITs. Brandywine Realty Trust $BDN produced FFO per share of $1.38 in 2022. For 2023, their midpoint guidance is $1.16. ~16% in FFO per share year-over-year decline if the company generates 2023 estimates.

Feb. 4, 2023, 3:42 a.m.

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Anecdotes like this should reaffirm investor confidence in the strength of the office market. Truly critical to bringing about employee collaboration and positive culture, which I can tell our favorite MHP investor is focused on.

I ❤️ Jamba Juice
My new office!
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Feb. 1, 2023, 3:49 a.m.

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Suburban occupancy holding up better than CBD occupancy rates relative to last year.

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Feb. 1, 2023, 3:44 a.m.

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Boston Properties $BXP year-over-year same-property occupancy rate down 100 basis points from 89.6% to 88.6%. The declining occupancy is not great, but it pushes back against the overly pessimistic office takes out there.

Feb. 1, 2023, 3:44 a.m.

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Solid outlook provided by Equity Lifestyle $ELS. Their consistently strong organic growth performance continues. Normalized FFO per share growth rate based on the midpoint is a little underwhelming. Manufactured housing = stability + growth

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Feb. 1, 2023, 3:11 a.m.

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Last week's REIT Rundown, covering publicly-traded real estate news on recent acquisitions, dividend changes, and operational updates. Tickers covered include $UMH $PEB $GMRE $GOOD $VNO $GNL $IIPR $VRE

Jan. 31, 2023, 3:14 p.m.

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Based on their midpoint FFO per share guidance, the stock trades at ~17.5x FFO. Quite attractive, considering their growth story remains active. There was prior speculation that life science would experience a slowdown, hurting ARE. Does not appear to be occurring.

Jan. 31, 2023, 1:57 a.m.

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Great quarter for Alexandria Real Estate Equities $ARE: - Cash same-store NOI growth of 10.9% - 2023 guidance of 5% midpoint same-store cash NOI growth - Q4 FFO per share up 8.6% year-over-year - 2023 FFO per share estimate midpoint of $8.96

Jan. 31, 2023, 1:57 a.m.

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Going through SL Green Realty $SLG Q4 earnings report. Does anyone know the economics behind the solid same-store NOI growth, while rental rate on replacement leases is negative? I would have thought those two would be very positively correlated.

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Jan. 29, 2023, 7:56 p.m.

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Since, then prices have crashed. Cannabis REITs now have: - Single digit earnings multiples - High cost of capital - Double-digit dividend yields - IIPR - Lower rent collection due to tenant issues

Jan. 29, 2023, 7:33 p.m.

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They are now income/value investments. Given higher interest rates and substantially lower equity prices, accretive growth has become much more difficult. For this reason, earnings growth could decline much quicker. It is hard to imagine multiples returning to late 2021 levels.

Jan. 29, 2023, 7:33 p.m.

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Just one year ago, cannabis REITs $IIPR $NLCP $PW were the ultimate growth REITs: - New, emerging tenant base - Highly accretive acquisitions due to low cost of capital - High earnings growth projections - Low dividend yields

Jan. 29, 2023, 7:33 p.m.

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Some of these transactions are a bit dated given that they were since July. However, still very attractive relative to implied cap rate that they trade at. My estimates have them at a 6.35% cap rate based on Q3 results.

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Jan. 27, 2023, 3:06 p.m.

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Healthcare Real Estate (Primarily Medical Office) Transaction Update: A few weeks ago, Healthcare Realty $HR announced that it completed $1.14 Billion in asset sales since July. The cap rate on these sales was 4.86%.

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Jan. 27, 2023, 3:06 p.m.

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Pebblebrook Hotels and Resorts $PEB floating rate debt carrying a 6.3% interest rate per their latest operational update.

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Jan. 26, 2023, 6:10 a.m.

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Very modest cap rate expansion relative to the recent rise in interest rates

Jan. 21, 2023, 7:34 p.m.

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Acquisition Statistics: Agree Realty $ADC 2021 weighted average cap rate: 6.2% ADC 2022 weighted average cap rate: 6.2% Alpine Income Property Trust $PINE 2021 weighted average cap rate: 6.8% PINE 2022 weighted average cap rate: 7.1%

Jan. 21, 2023, 7:34 p.m.

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Solid performance in year end update from shopping center REIT Urban Edge $UE - The same-property lease rate was up 110 basis points year-over-year to 95.4% - Record leasing activity with over 1 million square feet for new leases -12% rental rate cash spread

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Jan. 20, 2023, 3:53 p.m.

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My guess is that more investors hold Gladstone for its high income, while this has not traditionally been a reason to hold office REITs, like Voronado. Consequently, investors were let down more with Gladstone's dividend cut.

Jan. 20, 2023, 3:22 p.m.

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