All 3 publicly-traded SF REITs just reported 7%+ rent increases for all to see. Think inflation is getting under control? Single-family rents are the largest component of CPI, which uses very old methodology with very lagging data. Source: @JBREC SF REIT Summary p.7 of 89 #jbrec

12% of our clients increased compensation 11%+ in the last year, & another 43% increased compensation 5%-10%. That is a lot of wage #inflation. 87% said they expect to increase compensation less next year. If true, that is good news for the #fed but not their employees. #jbrec

Single family rental expenses are growing faster than revenues: 6.5% vs 8.0%. 2nd time since our survey started 2 years ago. Source: Members of @NRHCouncil who own 287K rental homes. #jbrec #singlefamilyrental #buildtorent

2/ "changes in labor costs do not necessarily influence services prices. Companies can instead absorb such costs into their profit margins." The demographics are different this time, and business execs will try to pass along rising labor costs @JBREC

1/ I sure hope the #FederalReserve isn't relying on their own economists, whose models analyze history but ignore how our working age labor force growth is not even close to what it used to be. Check out the quote below in the paper they just published:

You might also call it "Forever Wage Inflation." This was so perfectly predictable that we wrote about this in our book 7 years ago. 4.2 million people will turn 20 this year and 4.2 million people will turn 65. @AkiIto7 @BusinessInsider #jbrec

The Southwest region of the country has the strongest #job growth and the biggest home price declines. This is completely the opposite of what I was taught would happen by one of my mentors in the early 1990s. I attribute it to the rise and departure of investors. #jbrec

Construction costs set to increase again. The cost of home building structures fell 8% in Q1, but appear set to increase. @JBREC surveyed 20% of the residential building structure industry who correctly forecasted the Q1 slowdown and are now forecasting a Q2 boom. #jbrec

Great thread here

The market share of first time home buyers has become skewed to the first 3 categories: 1 - Getting help from parents 2 - Working form home & relocating to a more affordable area 3 - Frustrated & renting 4 - Saving to buy #JBREC ⁦@NicoleFriedman⁩

The market share of first time home buyers has become skewed to the first 2 categories: 1 - Getting help from parents 2 - Working form home & relocating to a more affordable area 3 - Frustrated & renting 4 - Saving to buy #JBREC ⁦@NicoleFriedman⁩

Working from home, even if just 2 days/week, is already a housing affordability solution for a huge number of households. Reducing the number of commute days has made commuting far more palatable, even to renters, who can get more housing for their $$ further from work. #jbrec

Did you know that many home builder stocks are near their all-time highs? The Spring has been strong and profits have been fantastic. #jbrec

Is strong new home sales a head fake, or did we find bottom? #jbrec

Jay Powell is trying to kill construction. California passed a law that boosted Accessory Dwelling Unit construction by 10X. Florida just passed a law that will boost affordable housing construction. Read more at: #JBREC

3 takeaways from recent @NRHCouncil conference. 1 - The more affluent renters are driving rents up 2 - Bigger firms are buying 90% fewer homes right now, but plan to grow soon 3 - This year's focus is operational efficiency rather than growth #Jbrec

Are 61% of economists polled by the @WSJ wrong? The economists think a recession is imminent.

Our labor shortage will continue. The number of people turning 65 will continue growing through 2026 - a stat that is about as perfectly predictable as they come. Will AI improve productivity enough to overcome this?

Huge outmigration from the West Coast and the North to the South during the 2nd year of Covid - from July 21 to July 22. The in-migration markets had both the highest housing demand and the highest housing supply, which could not keep up with demand. #demographics #housing

It is medium size businesses who are under siege here. They need to keep more than 250k in the bank for payroll, and get poor service from the big banks, such as when Wells neglected to tell them that they were at their asset limit and could not make PPP loans a few years ago.

We identified more than 1000 #buildtorent communities and 70% of them are attached.

This is a big deal as ADUs have skyrocketed to 23k per year in California, and the trend is increasing nationwide. Huge affordability solution once they allow pro forma rents rather than historical rents to count. We just did a podcast on this.

Our Risk Indices tell a different story than our sales/pricing index (posted yesterday). 98% of the country continues to flash "high/"very high" risk due to affordability, as well as high construction volumes in the Texas markets. We will monitor job growth carefully.