“Tender Reject” index from ⁦@FreightWaves⁩ index shows # of loads truckers choose not to accept (selectivity in good times, “take what they can get” in bad times); low # means spot market truckers are more desperate for loads ⁦@FreightAlley⁩ ⁦@JohnFMauldin⁩

On month/month basis, May PPI #inflation -0.3% vs. -0.1% est. & +0.2% prior … core +0.2% vs. +0.2% est. & +0.2% prior … core has not yet gone negative

May PPI #inflation +1.1% vs. +1.5% est. & +2.3% prior; core PPI +2.8% vs. +2.9% est. & +3.2% prior

In complete reversal from 2022, Tech breadth much stronger than Energy breadth … 88% of S&P 500 Tech members are trading above their 200-day moving average (blue) vs. just 26% for S&P 500 Energy (orange)

Index returns table and “super 7” returns chart updated thru yesterday’s close

MA breadth charts updated thru yesterday’s close

In year/year terms, energy’s contribution (or lack thereof) to headline CPI in May was most negative since May 2020 ⁦@Bloomberg⁩ ⁦@BLS_gov⁩

Slight uptick in % of small businesses raising compensation (blue) and planning to do so (orange) in May, but not enough yet to reverse recent downtrends

Growth rate in CPI food component continued to ease in May, falling to +6.7% year/year … still fast relative to history, but rolling over from peak

Credit conditions component within ⁦@NFIB⁩ small business survey continued to deteriorate in May, falling to worst level since December 2012

Directionally, relationship between CPI used cars (blue) and ⁦@Manheim_US⁩ used vehicle prices (orange) has broken down for now … on m/m basis, series moved in same direction in 2022; yet thus far in 2023, there hasn’t yet been one month they’ve moved in same direction

Sharp increase in small businesses’ capex plans in May per ⁦@NFIB⁩ … index (blue) bounced back to highest since August 2022; monthly change (orange) was among strongest going back a couple decades

3-month annualized change in core CPI clocked in at 5% as of May ... off peak but still quite high relative to history

Misery rate (which combines CPI y/y and unemployment rate) fell to 7.7% in May, lowest since beginning of 2021

Thru May, % of small businesses with higher selling prices (blue) fell to 32% (lowest since March 2021) but share planning to raise prices (orange) ticked higher, back to where it was in January

Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings growth now in positive year/year territory for first time since March 2021

Materials out in front today and now creeping up to second place MTD (but still a lot to make up YTD); Industrials also doing well MTD … small caps moved higher and outpaced larger peers, keeping MTD gains intact (similar dynamic YTD, though, with relative gains still weaker)

Every year, @BCG releases their Most Innovative Companies ranking; based on survey of > 1,000 innovation executives polled in Dec 2022 and Jan 2023, BCG assessed companies’ performance on four dimensions: •Global mindshare: number of votes received from all global innovation…

Carbonara pasta dish prices set to come down? Eggs component in CPI plunged by -13.8% m/m in May, which was worst drop since January 1951

CPI core goods (blue) saw year/year rate tick up to +2% year/year in May … conversely, core services (orange) saw year/year rate move lower to +6.6% (but taking longer to come down)

Now that CPI has been digested, probability for pause (skip?) getting close to 100% ⁦@CMEGroup⁩

CPI core services ex-housing fell to +4.6% year/year, slowest since February 2022

Used car & truck component of CPI still negative year/year in May, but slight move higher in trend to -4.2% … on month/month basis, component was up +4.4%

New 52-week high for S&P 500 (blue) … percentage of members at a new 52-week high: 5% (orange)