In total, 47m options trades across all exchanges today, with calls outpacing puts by 1.5x (2nd highest since April ‘22). 👇 $SPX $QQQ $TSLA $AAPL $NVDA

$IWM Call Volume has skyrocketed to new record highs.

The Global AI Market is projected to reach $900B by 2026, representing a 19% CAGR over the next 3.5 years. $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AAPL

Shorts are capitulating, according to GS Prime. This week saw active fund managers cover shorts at the fastest weekly pace in 7+ months $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Goldman’s US Equity Sentiment Indicator has risen to its highest level since September 2021 This is the indicator’s 1st positive reading in 21 months. $SPX $QQQ $AAPL $NVDA $TSLA

Hedge Funds have been chasing the recent Tech rally at a breakneck pace According to GS Prime, the recent streak of net buying in Tech stocks is the largest over any 4-week period since Feb ‘21 and ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past 10 years. $QQQ $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA

Small caps have lagged behind YTD, but we saw some money rotate there on Friday. Friday was the largest 1 day outperformance of $IWM vs $QQQ in over 2 years.

Tech stocks just saw their biggest weekly inflows on record. $QQQ $SPY $AAPL $NVDA $MSFT

ChatGPT reached 100m monthly active users in just 2 months (in Jan) after launching in Nov, making it the fastest growing consumer app in history It took TikTok 9 months after launch to reach 100m users and Instagram 2.5 years. $MSFT $NVDA $META

Historically, anything more than a -1% YoY decline in the US Conference Board’s LEI has led to a recession within a year. We are at -6% YoY now. $SPY $QQQ

Consumers are negative on the US housing market for 2 big reasons: 1.) High Prices 2.) High Interest Rates A double whammy for Home Buyers.

$NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AAPL $META $AMZN $TSLA

2023 has been a tale of two markets for the $SPX. AI related stocks… and the other 493.

Bond market volatility has diverged from equity market volatility and is nearing 12 year highs. This is the largest divergence between the two dating back to 2011. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TLT

The most hated rally… Put option open interest across major equity ETFs stands at 41mm contracts, the highest reading since August 2011 (debt limit version 1.0). $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Howard Marks describes the stock market as a pendulum, constantly swinging from 1 extreme to the other, but spending very little time at the midpoint.

Outside of the 2 largest asset bubbles in the past 50 years, the $SPX PE Ratio has never been higher. $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA

Equities are currently very expensive relative to real rates. The 426 BP real yield gap ranks in the 80th percentile since 1976 and is the lowest since late 2007. $SPY $QQQ

Historically, the Fed has never hiked this much without a recession occurring. In last week’s meeting, Fed Chair Powell said he believes this time really could be different. So far, the market believes him.

Meanwhile, the fixed income market is pricing in rate cuts starting as soon as September (and possibly starting in July). It is pretty rare for the Fed to cut rates with inflation so high and unemployment so low. The current FOMC is not projecting any rate cuts this year.

Consensus is projecting a -4% peak to trough EPS decline for this cycle. Such a shallow EPS drop would not be consistent with any recession that has occurred in the modern era. Recessions since 1970 have averaged a -24% EPS decline, with none shallower than -15%.

What’s being priced in by the market? The perfect landing. 👇👇👇

Institutional investors have rarely been this bearish. According to Barron’s, only 8% more money managers consider themselves more bullish than bearish. This is the 2nd lowest reading in the history of the 25-year survey (behind only Fall 2019). $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $MSFT

2023 has been the best “Buy the Dip” year in history. So far this year, $SPX up sessions after a down day have been the largest ever.