Wednesday - Wage growth benefits outweighing costs. The boost to consumer demand from rare 6% US wage growth offsetting any hit to company profit margins, even amongst the seemingly most exposed, and also driving investment in productivity, AI, automation.

Tuesday - The US inflation two-step. Core inflation is stubborn but easing behind scenes. Lower prices will return consumer purchasing power and be a relief to corporate profit margins. A long-duration and tech focused stock market will also reward this.

Monday – How Europe is different. It’s the macro and market surprise of 2023. With lower inflation, stronger earnings growth, and 30% lower valuations than US. But also riskier, more cyclical, more global. Key if technical recession turns to hard landing.

Friday - Dollar stability may be enough relief. A petering out of the recent US dollar rally would be a relief to hard-pressed currencies, from ZAR to NOK, and to commodities and emerging markets stocks, two of worst performing assets this year. @eToro

Thursday - Shipping markets underline growth concerns. Container and Dry Bulk shippers move 90% global trade and plunged freight rates a real-time barometer of growth pressure, and relief on inflation. MAERSK to ZIM seeing lower prices and weak volumes.

Our take on why the biggest risk is not being in the market, the catalyst for the next bull market, tech exceptionalism, and case for healthcare. Starts at '5:25. Thanks to @tomkeene @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 Bloomberg Surveillance Simulcast' (06/07/23)

Our take on markets, the coming economic slowdown, and why not to worry too much about it. Thanks to @juleshyman @thebradsmith @YahooFinance @7sReport

Monday - US debt deal winners & losers. Gives markets one less worry. But with some costs: $100bn/yr. budget cuts, $1trn bond issuance, potential rating cut. Consumer pressure from welfare cuts and student loan re-start. But Defence, health, energy relief.

3) This payroll report is an investor reality check 🥺after debt deal optimism; that more progress needs to be seen on inflation. This will keep another ’final’ Fed interest rate hike on the cards for the looming June 14thmeeting and support the recent rebound of the US dollar.

2) There was better underlying news 😀 for inflation worries as unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, a 7-mth high, and average earnings eased to 4.3%. But jobs strength is key inflation concern, with all else, from supply chains to goods, housing, and commodities already slowing.

US jobs market shock. 😬 1) US economy created huge 339,000 jobs in May, surging from prior 253,000, and shocking consensus looking for a fall. Further delays the coming economic slowdown but only stokes inflation worries and chances Fed needs to raise interest rates more.

Friday - Apple’s ‘new era’. It may soon launch its long-awaited AR/VR headset, in first new product since 2016. Firming its growth prospects and support recent big rally, reignite enthusiasm for out-of-favour metaverse, and further boost Semis chips need.

Thursday - Kicking off the summer. We see harder won but still positive returns as enter peak summer that typically see’s lower market returns and volumes. Markets are supported by well-founded tech optimism, an upturn in earnings, and poor sentiment.

Wednesday - AI moves from hope to reality. NVIDIA led move to AI revenue reality, and also remade case for thematic investing. Retail investors were early into AI boom. Whilst the underperformance of AI-driven ETF is a reminder that it's not infallible.

Tuesday - Best of both bond worlds. Bond funds seen $80bn inflows this year, whilst equity funds lost $90bn, as investors sought security and income. Target Maturity funds a growing niche offering single bond experience but ETF cost and diversification.

Monday - A rare foreign stocks outperformance. 30% cheaper valuations and resilient economies see Europe hit new all-time-highs w/out tech’s help, and Japan sights on 1989 record. Overseas only led US twice past 35 yrs. More gains need soft macro landing.

Friday - UK is down but not out. The economy is struggling and stocks running behind US juggernaut. But FTSE 100 near all-time-highs and Sterling best major FX this year. UK markets punch above weight and their tech stocks have higher valuations than US.

Thursday - The four debt ceiling costs. Markets complacent to this showdown. It undermines the bedrock bond market and may cut consumer spending. Longer term spending cuts will drag GDP, whilst $1 trillion catch-up bond issuance drains market liquidity.

Wednesday - The double credit whammy. Bank lending standards and Fed interest rates now uniquely tightening together and will slow resilient US economy. Will drive volatility up but ultimately speed rate cuts and boost a long-duration heavy stock market.

Tuesday - Weak trading volumes don’t mean much. Weak May equity volumes are a anomaly after a strong start to year. History shows low volume does not equal higher volatility or bad performance. Whilst summer trading doldrums are usually less than feared.

Monday - Stock market leads economy. Investors been turning less defensive with US rate cuts on far horizon. These typically start next bull market. But each cycle different, and interest rate sensitives real estate and banks skipped in favour of tech.

Friday - Help from the bond market. Lower long term US bond yields been a key ingredient to the valuation-led stocks rally this year. Our copper/gold ratio proxy, and view of a hastening growth and inflation slowdown, sees this support continuing.

Thursday - Room in the wallet. US consumers have $500bn pandemic savings left, enough to end of year and key buffer to the slowing economy. But Q1 results show are now spending differently, on staples and personal care, not big ticket or discretionary.

Wednesday - An obesity epidemic solution. Half world is overweight at cost to global economy seen rising to $4 trillion/yr. NVO and LLY leading big pharma' launch of increasing effective weight loss drugs and shining light on healthcare's growth pick up.

Tuesday - El Niño upside to commodities. This global weather phenomena could bring record temperatures and supply/demand disruption across ag and energy markets. Is an upside risk from natgas to wheat and sugar, and downside from soybeans to heating oil.