Hi everybody. Tesla delivery estimates for Q2 2023 were as follows on June 2nd: • My estimate: 439,000 (Same as 23 May) • Analyst consensus: 447,000 (Same as 23 May) The next update on Twitter will be on 13 June.

I have checked the rules again and my explanation above is actually not correct because requirements don't distinguish between battery cells and battery modules. They all need to be manufactured or assembled in North America, even the cells.

Fremont was getting 40,000/quarter LFP packs (not cells) from Giga Shanghai. Initially, they were getting $3,750 because the 40% critical minerals requirement was met. I think now, they are getting LFP cells from China and making them into packs in the US. That's another $3,750.

It's very interesting that all Model 3 and Model Y versions now qualify for the full $7,500 federal tax credit. See Hopefully, that means Model 3 inventory in the US will soon start to drop. You can watch the inventory chart here:

Hi everybody. Tesla delivery estimates for Q2 were as follows on 23 May: • My estimate: 439K (Was 437K on 10 May) • Analyst consensus: 447K (Was 446K on 10 May) I've just posted a new update on Patreon: It'll be on Twitter in 7 days as usual. Thanks

Hi everybody. Tesla delivery estimates for Q2 were as follows on 23 May: • My estimate: 439K (Was 437K on 10 May) • Analyst consensus: 447K (Was 446K on 10 May) I've just posted a new update on Patreon: It'll be on Twitter in 7 days as usual. Thanks

Based on Tesla's inventory page here Canada is getting Model 3 Long Range AWD and Model Y Standard Range RWD from China. To see this, click on 'Details' for one of the cars, then look at the link. LRW means a Tesla China VIN. 5YJ or 7SA means Tesla USA.

If you are a Tesla fan from Kansas, we need regular drone videos for this new battery factory Panasonic and Tesla are building in Kansas. Groundworks began in Nov 2022. This is expected to be the same size as Giga Nevada.

Here is a detailed table as of May 16. It shows my calculation for the order backlog based on the wait times for new orders shown on Tesla's website multiplied by the daily production rate of each trim level. The red cells show wait times that are too short.

Hi everybody. Based on my calculation, Tesla's order backlog was 83K units on May 16, up from 68K on April 30. I've just posted a new update on Patreon: It'll be on Twitter in 2 weeks. Patreon allows me to continue spending a lot of time on this. Thanks

@MoneybaII_R Thanks

In the video description WuWa @bentv_sh is reporting that Giga Shanghai's output was low this week. This is most likely related to the production line upgrade reported here: This doesn't change my estimate. There is enough inventory

There is some discussion about FSD take rate, therefore I want to clarify some details. I'm calculating 14.3% take rate in North America in Q3 2022 and 23.7% for all time. There is a spreadsheet here in case you want to check out the details:

Ford's interest in Tesla's Supercharger Network highlights a missed opportunity. Tesla could have provided an operating system to other EVs that includes navigation, Supercharging, Autopilot, and more advanced and cool voice interaction (something that currently doesn't exist).

I wonder how Supercharger route planning is going to work for non-Tesla vehicles in the long term.

Hi everybody. Tesla delivery estimates for Q2 2023 were as follows on 10 May: • My estimate: 437K (Was 434K on 7 May) • Analyst consensus: 446K (Same as 7 May) I've just posted a new update on Patreon: It'll be on Twitter in 7 days as usual. Thanks

This is good news for Tesla. It helps with two issues at the same time: • Giga Shanghai production capacity is higher than demand. It makes use of idle capacity • Model Y demand in the US is good but Giga Texas can't ramp up production quickly because battery supply is limited

Quarterly or at least yearly numbers for the US would be great. We get nothing from Tesla.

Here are US sales numbers released by Tesla vs Ford. Ford releases these numbers every month. See: The transparency and level of detail are impressive. Tesla doesn't release monthly, quarterly or yearly numbers for the US. They only release global numbers

Can HW3 achieve driverless FSD? HW3: Tesla Autopilot hardware version 3. This is the current hardware all Teslas come with since 28 March 2019. FSD: Full Self-Driving.

In 2022, Tesla sales in Europe used to be close to zero in the first month of the quarter because there were no cars to deliver. That's not the case anymore. It's easy to beat a number close to zero by a large margin. This creates an excellent opportunity for hype.

There is again a lot of hype in Q2 like the example you see below but sales in Germany are actually weak and they have a ton of inventory, and Europe as a whole is currently trending below Q1 but let's wait for more data.

In Q1, there was a lot of hype about Tesla sales in Europe growing by 300% in this country and 600% in that country but Europe as a whole was actually down in Q1 because of Germany & UK. The same could happen in Q2. Tesla Europe Sales: • 94,819 in Q4 2022 • 93,784 in Q1 2023

When do you think Tesla might achieve driverless-FSD (Full Self-Driving)?