weekly observations (07.21.25): 5y5y; stablecoin BID for bonds; "We capitulate on last month’s constructive view on UST", S&P golden cross = HIGHER 10yy (BAML); stopped OUT 5s, re buy (MS)

while WE slept: USTs bid (Wall-E) bunds underperforming; Wall-E says; BREAKS breakin'; ReSale Tales and YCC again? why not -Tchir

while WE slept: USTs are lower by a handful of ticks (TSMC); #Got30s? (rent2own?); Core PCE to firm (Barclays, BMO); eco outlook leans to downside (MS)

while WE slept: USTs aggressively UNCH; CPI recaps; #Got2s in-range (BMO) OR rates 'clean break' (CitiFX); "How markets are still underestimating inflation risk" (how or WHY? DB answers)

while WE slept: USTs bull flatten; NO cuts in 25 (BNP), "And so it begins?" (UBS on tarif’lation), #Got2s?

while WE slept: "USTs retain a modest bear-steepening bias..."; 5s vs 4.00% (aka 'non shall pass'); 60/40 'A 150-Year Markets Stress Test'

weekly observations (07.14.25): "What if?" (DB, ING); "...You will not see me getting in the lifeboat.” -JPOW

while WE slept: USTs cheaper/steeper; '“Bond fund” received more US search than “tech stock”' (DataTREK); bond vol (MOVE) 3y low! Oh Canada! Stablecoin = UST demand; XL slurpee demand (JPOW)

while WE slept: USTs 'creeping' o/n bid ran into wall; S&P upgrade w/note on STOCKS > bonds, and 5000yrs of rates (BAML); daily 'evening stars' formed (CitiFX)

while WE slept: USTs marginally bid, calm; "Do near record low US dividends matter?" (yes -DB); global fiscal follies; 'Shut up, Dan' ...

while WE slept: USTs cheaper (tariffs); 10s approx 225yr avg since (~4.50% since 1800 -DB); mkts disconnected (Apollo)

and another thing(s): 'More room to go' (BLK); Fed to remain on hold (BNP); investors buying (approaching 'the fence', ie NEUTRAL -DB); dollar down, 'flation UP

weekly observations (07.07.25): NFP recaps / victory laps; Global Wall remains bullish, Goldilocks lowers yld f'cast (marks to mkt)

while WE slept: USTs firm; NFP precaps followed by victory laps; 12m MA 2yy on NFP days:'outsized moves' on print ...

while WE slept: "fixed in the red"; 2s testing key support (CitiFX); "buyer strike on US assets continues" (DB); NAZ (not a)bubble indicator (DataTrek); USTs longs build & Hindsight Cap (BBG)

while WE slept: Rates are BID, vote-A-rama continues; Monthly, quarterly performance; NFP precap & Swiss out with updated (and lowered) 10yr rate guess

while WE slept: belly BID, light (60%) volumes into month-end; "Tariff Singularity", remain BULLISH rates and stocks (MS) and ... basking

weekly observations (06.30.25): flatteners and steepeners (BAML, BMO), DOTS identified (DB), stay long 5s, foreigners NOT 'fleeing' (MS); BIS says ...

while WE slept: USTs under modest pressure; "...spikes in geopolitical risk have had no observable effect on 6m SPX returns over the last few decades" (Barclays)

while WE slept: USTs bid (WSJ) ; #Got7s?; #SLRs a changin'; lookin' for front-end dipORtunity (JPM); #GotNYCREITs?

while WE slept: USTs flat ahead of HH2.0; brace for $1tril UST supply; "little bear market" (10s, BG); "Pricing of cuts under the next Fed chair has shifted materially" (DB); #TariffInflation ??

while WE slept: USTs bid ; who's buyin (oil and separately, USTs -DB) ... and a better measure (of GPD) = PDFP; #Got2s?

while WE slept: USTs aggressively UNCH; mkts overconfident in easing while markets/econ have been resilient (DB); geopol events short-lived, Fed's NLP more dovish and thinking 7 CUTS in '26 (MS) ...

weekly observations (06.23.25): bonds BID, Waller SAYS, and Global Wall's buyin' 5s

while WE slept: USTs incrementally firmer/flat; FOMC recaps and ... 2s 'rangy', NIRPs BACK, BRENTs +20.52% since 6/1, Fund managers: U/W USD, recession call gone, rates higher for longer ...