The Manley Macro Memo

The Manley Macro Memo: Goldilocks or Stagflation?

The Manley Macro Memo: Are six interest rate cuts and 13% earnngs growth realistic?

The Manley Macro Memo: We are in a high risk period and stocks offer a poor risk-reward -- especially relative to a 5.5% risk-free rate.

The Manley Macro Memo: Investors are ebullient that the Fed has orchestrated a soft landing, yet corporate profits have declined for three consecutive quarters, and the leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate.

The Manley Macro Memo: Should Investors Sell in May and Go Away? We believe the economy is on the verge of recession, and the next leg of the Bear Market is imminent.

The Manley Macro Memo: Stocks have a poor risk-reward and offer a historically low equity risk premium. A 4.9% risk-free rate is great.

The Manley Macro Memo: Wall Street believes the Fed will engineer a "soft landing." Is it probable?

The Manley Macro Memo : The S&P 500 rallied 17% higher over the past 8-weeks due to favorable seasonality and positive fund flows. We expect the bear market to resume when the year-end rally ends in January.

The Manley Macro Memo: The Fed's mistakes created the worst year for balanced investors since the Great Depression. Is the worst over?

The Manley Macro Memo: Don't Fight the FED!

The Manley Macro Memo: The Bear Market Rally is Over. Stocks are Poised for the Next Leg of the Bear Market

The Manley Macro Memo: Is the Summer Rally Ending?

The Manley Macro Memo: The First Leg of the Bear Market is Over. What Happens Next?

The Manley Macro Memo : Is the Financial Bear Market in Stocks and Bonds Almost Over?

The Manley Macro Memo : Stocks are overvalued and vulnerable to significant decline as monetary conditions tighten and the bear market accelerates.

The Manley Macro Memo: Stocks fell to a nine-month low as Russia invaded Ukraine, and inflation surged to the highest level since January 1982. Stocks are in a bear market and Recession risks are elevated

The Manley Macro Memo: We believe that the risk of a significant market decline is high because of the Fed's monetary mistake, market structure issues, a potential energy crisis due to underinvestment and Russian aggression

The Manley Macro Memo: Currently, the market is in a sharp correction because investors are fearful the Fed is behind the curve and will move aggressively to fight inflation.

The Manley Macro Memo: Executive Summary · Uncertainty about the Omicron variant and the Fed’s hawkish pivot led to a sharp market decline that began in late November. The correction subsided in mid-December because the Omicron variant appeared to be less virulent than the Delta variant. Also, the FDA approved two at-home anti-viral drugs that can greatly reduce the risk of hospitalization.

The Manley Macro Memo: In the current inflationary environment, we expect interest rates will rise, and we see a significant opportunity to invest in the value sectors of the market while avoiding the mega-cap tech stocks.

The Manley Macro Memo: Despite a surge in new Covid cases, inflation concerns, supply chain constraints, and labor shortages, the S&P 500 has advanced higher for seven consecutive months, which is its longest winning streak

The Manley Macro Memo: Inflation is Surging, yet Interest Rates are Falling. What is More Important the Fundamentals, or the Liquidity Flows?

The Fed Admitted That Inflation May Not Be Transitory, but Actions Speak Louder Than Words: Although the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, the major indexes were mixed in May because inflationary concerns tempered investor’s optimism over the economic reopening.

Is the Fed Making a Monetary Mistake?: The S&P 500 reached a record high in April due to strong economic data and the Fed's commitment to not remove any of their emergency monetary measures for the foreseeable future.