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Maxx Chatsko

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Sector Biotech
Content Type Commentary
Website Twitter
Paywall No

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Average Rating 8.0
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Ranking 707

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Xcel Energy $XEL is lighting up on this metric once again, but it doesn't show up on stock screens. And the ex-dividend date just so happens to be tomorrow.

Maxx Chatsko
This one weird trick can make you money. Kidding aside, one of the easiest "go / no-go" decisions in my portfolio each month revolves around one of my anchor positions, Xcel Energy $XEL. There's a fairly consistent metric to use for determining if shares are fairly valued.

June 13, 2023, 11:11 a.m.

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Apples-to-apples performance of the last 10 picks I made at a stock recommendation service, Sept '21 to May '22: ➡️ Ol' Maxxie +26.9% vs. S&P 500 thru June 9 ➡️ Peer 1 -12.8% ➡️ Peer 2 -16.3% ➡️ Peer 3 -23.4% ➡️ Simon -26.5% ➡️ Peer 5 -37.6% ➡️ Peer 6 -49.2% 💪🧬

June 10, 2023, 11:11 a.m.

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Investing research is how @Solt_DB generates revenue, but that's just to keep the core platform free and independent. No ads. No email sign ups. No corporate influence. The core platform is why I started Solt DB. Can't wait to launch our Global Biotech Company DB this summer!

Solt DB
In May 2022, we launched the MVP of our investment research to validate and refine it. But Solt DB isn't focused on investing. Our core platform has databases, visualizations, and articles to convey nerdy concepts in the global bioeconomy. Launching this summer -- & it's free!
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June 9, 2023, 12:29 p.m.

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My crystal ball says AVITA Medical $RCEL is likely to issue a ~$50m stock offering soon. 🔮 It remains my 2nd largest position, but shares are a little expensive based on expected 2023 performance. I'd wait to add or build a position until after the expected offering.

June 8, 2023, 6:30 p.m.

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Pricing: ➡️ Now: $10/m | $80/y ➡️ Summer: $25/m | $200/y ➡️ Future: >$50/m | >$450/y If you keep an active subscription, then your price will never increase. The MVP pricing closes for good next month. Please don't sign up until pricing increases:

June 8, 2023, 12:44 p.m.

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Sometimes good businesses are expensive -- and it's okay to admit that. Investment research from @Solt_DB reduces uncertainty with actionable information. Static PDF reports can't do that. Pricing more than doubles this summer unless you lock in MVP pricing for life.

Solt DB
Solt DB Invest is 👉NOT👈 a stock recommendation service. We model the fair valuation of biotech stocks, then provide real-time signals if a stock is likely overvalued or undervalued. The Margin of Safety dashboard moves to the web this summer at
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June 8, 2023, 12:44 p.m.

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Amyris $AMRS is restructuring. It should start with management & the board (it won't). One interesting covenant of the most recent loan: Amyris must adhere to **three-week** cashflow requirements. Ooph. My last-ever article at TMF explored restructuring:

June 5, 2023, 3:11 p.m.

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Every dog is a therapy dog. Some are just in the placebo group.

June 5, 2023, 11:11 a.m.

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Humira / adalimumab volumes are insane: 11 million units per year. $CHRS wants to grab 10% market share, which would represent >$500 million in annual revenue at the launch list price. That's a significant amount of revenue for a small drug developer.

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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Also keep in mind: ➡️ Humira was priced at $13k/yr. It was still profitable. ➡️ ~$13K/yr is still a relatively expensive drug ➡️ Yusimry = minimal advertising & marketing spend So, in simple terms, $CHRS chose one strategy that fits its product & commercial infrastructure.

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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Amgen is trying the same dual-strategy (initially) for its Humira biosim. Interchangeable Humira biosimilars are more likely to try to build a rebate wall (prediction). Yusimry isn't interchangeable. But... everyone will be playing the volume game eventually. $CHRS $ABBV

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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We've already seen this for the insulin product Lantus. Two biosims from Viatris took different approaches: ➡️ Semglee strategy = build rebate wall ➡️ Unbranded product = 65% discount Both have succeeded. Semglee has higher revenue, unbranded has 2x unit volumes. $CHRS $ABBV

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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There are two ways to compete with a rebate wall: ➡️ Build your own (high list prices + high rebates) ➡️ Forget about rebates (low list prices + low/no rebates) Both can succeed, but each targets different sources of prescriptions within the market. $CHRS $ABBV

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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However, not all market players collect / prioritize rebates. Regional health plans often pass the savings onto patients, while government payers (VA, Medicare) just want the lowest cost. These sources would prefer lower list prices. $CHRS $ABBV

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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Yusimry's *list price* is 85% lower than Humira's, but that doesn't reflect margin potential. Why not? No one pays the list price for Humira. In fact, AbbVie pays out >50% of the list price in rebates. That's key to the strategy -- but not the only strategy. $CHRS $ABBV

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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AbbVie $ABBV has built what's known as a "rebate wall" around Humira. Meaning, it set an insanely high list price, but that gives it lots of room to offer high rebates. Rebates are often collected by the middlemen. Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), employer health plans, etc.

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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This question -- "if biosimilar prices are set so low, then where's the profit potential?" -- is coming up a lot. We can thank the unnecessarily complex U.S. healthcare system. It's pretty opaque. Let's dig into the nuances a bit to understand it better. $CHRS $ABBV

SHM
@MaxxChatsko I don't know how $CHRS humira biosimilar cost of manufacturing compares to the brand name but whatI am trying to understand is, how a significantly cheaper drug means significant upside for them. You charge 85% less... What net income do you expect?

June 4, 2023, 1 p.m.

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Retweeted post by @Solt DB
Solt DB
Coherus BioSciences Teases Toripalimab Success, Mark Cuban Partnership $CHRS The FDA has finally completed inspection of the manufacturing site for Tori. Meanwhile, Yusimry will be the 1st biologic drug available at @costplusdrugs (+ set at 2003 prices).

June 2, 2023, 1:25 p.m.

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Humira, the world's bestselling drug of recent years, currently has a list price of $89,986 per year. That's after a recent price cut. Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company has made a Humira biosimilar its first biologic drug. It will have a list price of just $14,801 per year.

June 2, 2023, 11:11 a.m.

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You rarely have an opportunity to buy a business trading below +12 month revenue, that'll be profitable & cash flow positive to boot. If Coherus BioSciences' $CHRS strategy is 75% successful, then it'll set new all-time highs by the end of 2026. That's a ~$4b market cap.

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June 1, 2023, 11:11 a.m.

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Apple $AAPL began April with $55.8 billion in cash. The U.S. Treasury, which manages the day-to-day financial operations of the United States of America, began Thursday with $49.5 billion in cash.

May 26, 2023, 11:11 a.m.

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The dose escalation data released today are encouraging. ➡️ FGFR2 fusion, FGFR resistant CCA had an ORR of 21% ➡️ FGFR2 mutations, CCA had an ORR of 29% (including doses below final dose) Data from other tumor types will be available in 2H 2023. $RLAY

May 25, 2023, 11:31 p.m.

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Efficacy in FGFR2 amplifications (breast) and mutations (endo) will be important for expanding the patient populations served. A good initial showing will also increase combination potential, such as with its SHP2 inhibitor (any tumor) or PI3K-alpha franchise (breast). $RLAY

May 25, 2023, 11:31 p.m.

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Phase 1 data suggest RLY-4008 will have an objective response rate (ORR) -- tumor reductions of >30% -- of >70% in this group. The best-performing approved treatment is 42%, so that's a layup for $RLAY But this is only ~500 to 1,000 patients per year.

May 25, 2023, 11:31 p.m.

No Paywall
Picture of Maxx Chatsko

Relay Therapeutics $RLAY is also exploring different patient populations. FGFR2 fusion, FGFRi resistant CCA for example. And different FGFR2 alterations. And different tumor types. These are wide open -- there are no approved treatments.

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May 25, 2023, 11:31 p.m.

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