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Gavin Baker

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Sector Generalists
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Life comes at you fast, part 2.0 Thoughtful commentary from Ford’s CEO and some of his peers. I’ll never forget Nokia’s CFO laughing at the “engineering” of the iPhone after it came out. Competitors here largely didn’t make similar mistakes even if other observers did.

Forward Cap
1/ Ford CEO Jim Farley explains Tesla's many competitive advantages against legacy automakers A timeline:

June 5, 2023, 5:04 p.m.

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TFW when you accidentally post the same tweet twice due to technical difficulties (airplane wifi) but then don’t feel right taking one down because there are lots of replies to each one.

June 4, 2023, 10:45 p.m.

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Life comes at you fast.

Gavin Baker
Interesting that datacenter semis, which are super leveraged to this given high compute intensity, are trading at their biggest discount to industrial semis in the last 5 years with more derisked estimates. Positioning in semis also at 5 yr lows per GS.

June 4, 2023, 9:17 p.m.

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Life comes at you fast.

Gavin Baker
Interesting that datacenter semis, which are super leveraged to this given high compute intensity, are trading at their biggest discount to industrial semis in the last 5 years with more derisked estimates. Positioning in semis also at 5 yr lows per GS.

June 4, 2023, 9:17 p.m.

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2) Nathan Fillion is so good. Still sad that Firefly was cancelled after just one season.

June 4, 2023, 6:48 p.m.

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1) Way behind on Destiny 2 so just learned that Cayde-6 is coming back. Best news of 2023. Also finally got a Hung Jury SR4 with Box Breathing which has been super fun in Iron Banner. Tougher in 3s. Sometimes makes me lonely that none of my IRL friends understand any of this.

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June 4, 2023, 6:48 p.m.

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2) But the accounting complexity of software plus need to accurately measure and then optimize to the right metrics mean that CFOs matter so much for actual value creation in software. Let alone being able to communicate with investors and appropriately manage the sell side.

June 2, 2023, 4:59 p.m.

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1) Interesting that CFOs are so important in software. Generally think of them as mattering most in lower margin businesses where expenses, working capital mgmt and capital discipline are critical.

June 2, 2023, 4:59 p.m.

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Comparable quarters: Google's first quarter post IPO, which was ahead of consensus for every single quarterly estimate in BBG going out several years. The Tesla and Facebook quarters in 2013. But I've never seen such a large beat at this scale.

May 24, 2023, 9:21 p.m.

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The fact that Russian rebels - assisted by Ukraine - have taken control of two towns in Russia near the border and are 4 km away from a Russian military base where tactical nuclear weapons are stored seems important.

May 22, 2023, 8:39 p.m.

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Also interesting to note that China/US tensions are starting to fade with the recent highly positive meeting in Vienna and Biden's comments about a thaw.

May 22, 2023, 8:39 p.m.

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My uninformed read of various expert opinions was that the endgame in Ukraine was rapidly approaching with the Ukrainian counter-offensive likely to succeed and force Russia to negotiate. Russia losing territory near a military base that stores nuclear weapons seems high beta.

May 22, 2023, 8:39 p.m.

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Replying to @Jon Cukierwar

@JonCukierwar Wow.

Jon Cukierwar
@GavinSBaker 100+ pages

May 22, 2023, 3:09 p.m.

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What is the longest HF letter anyone has read? Asking for a friend.

May 22, 2023, 3:06 p.m.

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Nothing is as embarrassing or value destructive as Kuiper, which has *zero* chance of creating value until someone other than SpaceX lands a rocket. But this comes close and is super important for the core biz. 100 deliveries vs. 600k for Zipline.

May 18, 2023, 8:08 p.m.

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Replying to @Dylan Patel

@dylan522p Great stuff. I think Bergamo is going benchmark much better than Siryn. We shall see soon.

Dylan Patel
Sound The Siryn: AmpereOne 192-Core CPU Chiplets, Advanced Packaging, and Disingenuous Performance Claims We dive into the CPU architecture, the performance, and the system architecture/packaging. $AMD $NVDA $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $GOOL $ARM $INTC $AVGO $MRVL

May 18, 2023, 5:23 p.m.

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SPD from MS needed some SPF today. Also happy birthday. Big 37.

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May 18, 2023, 4:16 a.m.

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Replying to @Tren Griffin

@trengriffin Wow that takes me back many years! Great paper that I had not thought about since first reading it a few years after came out when I was Telco analyst. Almost as good as the Paris Metro paper re Net Neutrality.

Tren Griffin
@GavinSBaker Read Jim Gray's famous paper on distributed computing economics.

May 17, 2023, 4:11 p.m.

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“The edge will eat the cloud.” Reading Fortinet’s last analyst day transcript/presentation and I liked this formulation. Might take a while though! Also they are the Apple of security. Integrated HW/SW, preference for internal dev, consistently shorted, stock only goes up ✔️

May 17, 2023, 3:59 p.m.

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Important to watch - might actually work. All the equipment manufacturers doing everything they can to help TSM competitors and Moore’s law slowing down makes it easier to catch up. Only possible to catch TSM in Japan, America, South Korea, Israel IMO.

May 10, 2023, 1:54 p.m.

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This platform is increasingly a resume for knowledge workers akin to Github for software engineers. There are accounts I would hire based on their feed after checking personality fit. trying to enable this as as way for creators to monetize audience.

T(w)itter Daily News 
NEWS: Twitter may create a dating app. A LinkedIn competitor too 👀
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May 10, 2023, 12:18 p.m.

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Replying to @Bear Force 1

@BearForce_Won ✔️ I like it that you know your stuff across sectors and appreciate your contributions here.

Bear Force 1
@GavinSBaker *UCIe

May 10, 2023, 12:12 p.m.

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Replying to @Bear Force 1

@BearForce_Won There are many flavors of DPUs and open protocols have historically won but we shall see. Pensando super awesome just not as relevant right now for GPUs and AI workloads. But it is by far the best DPU for CPU storage/networking offload ex Annapurna.

Bear Force 1
@GavinSBaker NVDA seems several steps ahead always. Mellanox and NVLink foundations set years ago. Versus Pensando and PCIe seemingly being thrown together at the 11th hour.

May 10, 2023, 12:11 p.m.

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Really good. Memory bandwidth and capacity will be increasingly important for datacenter GPUs. Axis of competition in compute is moving from cores and software tool chains/ISAs to fabrics/interconnect. Sidenote but Mellanox was such a good acquisition.

May 10, 2023, 11:52 a.m.

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Highly recommend “Blindsight” by Peter Watts for those interested in distinctions between intelligence and consciousness. Super thought provoking.

May 9, 2023, 4:53 p.m.

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