“Class A space is doing well…” (Not really)

@adrivalue @PrefShares (4) Finally, as a sanity check, keep in mind that $DLR is currently burning $300M per month, or $3.6B annually after dividends. That’s over (9)% on their almost $40B of capital employed. Pretty strong evidence that they aren’t even remotely earning their cost-of-capital.

@adrivalue @PrefShares (3) So in $DLR’s case, its gross (EBITDA) returns don’t cover its pre-tax cost-of-capital. And that’s before ANY capex. It’s a terrible business that’s getting worse. And any trend to more powerful AI-driven servers/chips will only accelerate these obsolescence issues.

@adrivalue @PrefShares (2) And these “useful life” figures from DuPont Fabros are based on physical useful life. But due to rapidly changing server technology/capacity the true economic lives of equipment is more like 8-10 years. The guts of my BlackBerry(and its network) all still work, but so what?

@adrivalue @PrefShares Start here. $DLR’s gross (EBITDA) return on invested capital is 6% before maintenance capex, and has been trending down for ten years. This also means the incremental pre-tax gross ROIC (ROIIC) is well below even that figure.

It’s not a coincidence that a number of senior crypto execs were also in the online poker business.

(2) This was $CVNA 2Q guidance from one month ago. Positive “Adjusted EBITDA” and “non-GAAP GPU/unit” above $5,000. I’m guessing higher “gain-on-sale” of receivables is the source of the (slight) beat this quarter.

So $CVNA non-GAAP GPU/unit in the 2Q will be “above $6,000” vs $4,800 in the 1Q…?! Lol, ok.

Is 99% a lot…?! It seems like a lot to me. And 70% as “wash trades” DEFINITELY seems like a lot.

(3) It should be noted that as of the 1Q, $CYXT had Net Debt/EBITDA of 9.7x, a level that $DLR will hit in 2024 at its current cash burn rate.

(2) $CYXT was a major tenant of $DLR spin-off Digital Core REIT ($DCRU.SP)

Troubled data center company $CYXT files for bankruptcy

Real estate is China's economic Achilles heel | The lynchpin of the Chinese Economic Model

Lots of rumors yesterday/today that $DLR is about to announce sale of Chicago data centers at a 7 cap. Reminder that a 7 cap deal values $DLR equity at $72, and does not de-lever their balance sheet.

Imagine thinking that creditors turning down an exchange offer for a financially-troubled company (to extend near-term maturities) is…bullish. $CVNA

China Mulls New Property Support Package to Boost Economy - “There is no other playbook.” #TreadmillToHell

On of my favorite coincident economic indicators, Las Vegas Strip revenues, has decelerated sharply in March/April. Was up 20% Y/Y in Jan/Feb. Barely up in last two months.

[Narrator: $TSLA is more expensive than $NVDA on a current run rate basis]

Reminder that Grumman did this, manned, in 1969.

Silly me, I’ve always thought that change of control in a major publicly-traded company was based on voting share count, not a simple majority vote by directors.

@b_cap21 That all sounds great until you realize they have been in that same dominant position for decades, yet have negative retained earnings. At some point, actual profits would be nice. $LYV

@b_cap21 That’s pretty much their business model, as they’ve never been very profitable. NCI/minority interests are a big drag as well. Makes the EBITDA valuation misleading. $LYV

And yet dominant live concert company $LYV will earn less than $1 per share this year. If not now, when…?