2/3. And odds of major cuts by year-end also pulled right back. My own feeling is that this adjustment has further to go.

3/3. Ironically, the speed with which Fed support arrived suggests the tightening hit to the economy from these relatively minor bank failures may not be sufficient to put inflation back in its box once and for all. So idea that Fed policy is now pointing down may be premature.

1/3. Market hike expectations adjusted a little too violently after SVB. Odds of pause on March 22 sharply down one day on.

2/2. “Where does the money go?” OK, Jim says ST treasuries yielding 4 or 5% or whatever. But if you don’t get a tsunami of new issuance, treasuries can’t absorb a tidal wave bank ran without yields collapsing. So we do have a systemic banking crisis automatic stabiliser here.

1/2. @biancoresearch has an interesting take on the US banking system liquidity; I.e., current instant access to your money via mobile banking puts bank runs into hyperdrive. It’s a good point, but you have to ask this question:

As @BobEUnlimited explains, this is a very different bank implosion as compared with the GFC. But private credit will be a complete disaster.

There is nothing like English January weather for sheer misery: dark and a damp that permeates the soul; but you’ve got to get out the house to shake off those winter blues. This is what I was up to today:

So true. This "bad is good narrative" for the Fed pivot has become totally deranged. Like praying for an end of life disease to reduce your life insurance payments.

25/25. Charities exist to promote chess, but they are limited in scope/funding. With TAM of 100 million, project needs mega ambition & proper ESG/impact investing VC. Hugely scaleable. DM me if you want to work with me to do something amazing in 23.

24/25. Two books that have affected me a lot over the years have been 1) Robert Putnam's "Bowling Alone" (which was the catalyst for the founding of and, more recently, b) Angus Deaton's "Deaths of Despair". At root, they are texts on social isolation.

22/25. Reason b): genius is matching people of similar level. Game against someone much worse, or much better, is not pleasurable for either party. Clicks-and-mortar venture of suitable size can fix that. This is really a stats/tech/scale problem.

23/25. Philosophically, we need more opportunities for physical social interaction: a world of social isolation where people sit in front of screens all days is a) an economically inefficient world and b), more importantly, an unhappy world.

21/25. Two reasons: a) the over-the-board chess establishment focuses on people who are good at chess ("hedgehogs"), or at least aspire to be part of 1%. They are not interested in 90% + who play for fun with knowledge that they will never get a 1500 rating (let alone 2000).

19/25. I came back to the game during Covid after a 30 year + hiatus. On I hover around 1200 on 10 minute rapid, which puts me around the 90% percentile. But I would never make a club or university team at that level.

20/25. And to be really good at chess, you need to be a "hedgehog": and that's not me. So why is the world not full of over-the-board chess cafes catering to average "foxes" when has 100m members? That's 1% of global population!!!

18/25. Another one: a project that I hatched during the Covid days was a social chess cafe (OTB: over the board). There is an echo of the Wall Street Occupy Movement here: "we are the 99%". Most people who play chess like me love the game, but are a bit sh*t.

17/25. So why do I want to do that? Well being a 2nd derivative "fox" I have a tonne of passions outside of finance. One of them is my love of walking historical London that you can find at my embryonic new handle @NRWLondon (a work in progress).

16/25. So I'm going to do radically less of the "up and down" going forward and concentrate this account on the longer "thought threads".

15/25. And, yes, I have my own twist on the "up and down" stuff (commentary on the Fed's latest minutes release or on non-farm payrolls and such) but it's kind of derivative. I've classed myself as "King of the Bears" but there is a lot of great bearish commentary out there.

13/25. So as regards this account, the threads that attract most attention are the long ones where I delve into a topic in depth. "Books in pubs" appears to be a perpetual favourite. So I aim to continue putting these out. I love doing them and people appear to respond to them.