Trim return of capital. Disclosure: long CIZN Modified disclosure: I’m not really long CIZN

As these regionals bring down spread revenue guidance 0-10% for 2q it seems to be about the midpoint of the industry. Several banks will grow NII nicely in 2Q. There are many many others, some highlighted in recent 5 Points, that will be hurt severely and need to…

$SOFI is up 88% in a month. Followers recall laughing at CEO Noto’s ROE math, but longs are laughing now. Is it because of student loan refi’s or higher estimates? No, the data suggest it is just a call option game

Steve Didion sighting as he casually posts the tweet of the year. I would have included Miller but every topic can’t be about CFST.

Instead of treating stakeholders like muppets. For example Sally Pope Davis at GSAM has invested with Scott Dueser at $FFIN for 19 years because of servant leadership. Rob Alexander at $FBSI, Hoppy Cole at $FBMS. So please share some CEOs who you consider…

Stand outs setting a constructive, partnership culture. To balance it out I encourage @FredEarle4 and @OurBank3 to share your talents and drag the Quagliano types buying ✈️ and 🚁 . @Catahoula_Value @thebankzhar @Aureliusltd28 @SirBaby6

In honor of @MaxfieldOnBanks while he’s with family, let’s touch on a favorite topic of his - low ego bankers. After some recent run ins with nasty levels of ego I am reminded the value of long-term partnerships with bankers who think like partners…

@Catahoula_Value Sherrod Brown and Tim Scott are both open to it so barring some technical snag it seems likely

@Catahoula_Value Sherrie Brown and Tim Scott are both open to it so barring some technical snag it seems likely

“Talk amongst yaselves” as Mike Myers used to say on SNL. “I’ll give you a topic”, Needham Bank takes over Eastern’s cannabis business. (Needham is converting).

Allocating capital today to the banks that went heavily long mortgage backed securities

@Catahoula_Value Finally they put it up on the website! Thank you Catahoula for your twitter value add

In fairness yesterday USB and CFG both said quarter was coming along inline (CFG said teens ROE on track, USB said PPNR and tax same outlook)

It would be constructive to see more fundamental foundation supporting banks today vs jerky jerk sector rotation. But it could help relax deposit concerns at a few spots.

To clarify HTM, this means the bank has $158mln of tangible common equity, and they bought about 1.6bn of bonds they intend to hold. Those are worth about $260mln less than their purchase price. So just one datapoint, and yes their deposits also have value.

Here is an interesting situation. Some of you know Republic First (FRBK), not to be confused with First Republic, since they are so different. FRBK has deferred coupons on its sub debt and has a HTM mark of 180% of tangible common equity.

Look at our sharpe ratio

CMBS office dq ripping in May but the rest of CRE is surprisingly tame (Trepp).

Somebody showed up for work at the San Francisco Fed

This account is not here to grow 100,000 followers, but to give & get constructive ideas and feedback. Investing well with banks requires gathering datapoints and details from all corners. Value nerds reading 10Qs and CRE rags are welcome here!

Lending at many banks may remain slightly positive due to increases in things like home values, and the whole process is helpful in resetting fixed rate loan prices. But overall it is disinflationary vs 2022.

This comes from listening to about 50 bankers over the last month. it is in most bank conference calls and slide decks (WFC from yesterday below). This is part of why many on this site are saying “The Fed is done”.