How Credible Is the 2025Q1 GDP Decline?

This is What Normalization Looks Like (Mostly)

Exorbitant Privileges, Burdens, etc. and the Implications for Fiscal Policy

China's Edge in the "Trade Struggle" is More Theoretical than Real

Thoughts from the Past Two Weeks

How to Think About the Tariffs

Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics

The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle

Inside the BTFP Subsidy

The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)

The U.S. Chooses Stagflation

The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now

Time Is Only on the Russians' Side If We Give It to Them

U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.

Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies

Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon

Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position

China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook

Conflicting Signals in the Strong Jobs Data

There Is No "Reverse Conundrum" Driving Up Bond Yields

Fed Officials Really Don't Want a Downturn

Inflation and the Job Market are Sending Conflicting Signals

The Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee on Inflation, the Stance of Monetary Policy, the "Field Guide to R-Star", Managing Supply Shocks, and More

Will Trump's Win (Eventually) Lead to *Lower* Long-Term Interest Rates?

Christopher Waller on Wages, Productivity, and Inflation