Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics

The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle

Inside the BTFP Subsidy

The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)

The U.S. Chooses Stagflation

The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now

Time Is Only on the Russians' Side If We Give It to Them

U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.

Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies

Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon

Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position

China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook

Conflicting Signals in the Strong Jobs Data

There Is No "Reverse Conundrum" Driving Up Bond Yields

Fed Officials Really Don't Want a Downturn

Inflation and the Job Market are Sending Conflicting Signals

The Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee on Inflation, the Stance of Monetary Policy, the "Field Guide to R-Star", Managing Supply Shocks, and More

Will Trump's Win (Eventually) Lead to *Lower* Long-Term Interest Rates?

Christopher Waller on Wages, Productivity, and Inflation

The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down: That is not a problem, but it has implications for inflation and interest rates. Plus: inside the September 2024 NIPA revisions.

U.S. Inflation Is Still Hotter than Pre-Pandemic. And that's Okay.: Underlying measures of prices are still rising about one percentage point or so faster than they were in 2017-2019. But there is nothing wrong with this new normal, even if may not be fully priced in.

The Case for Huge Fed Rate Cuts Up Front (And Maybe Some Hikes Later): The goal should be getting to "neutral" as quickly as possible. Since no one knows where that is, optimal policy should consist of moving down quickly while preserving the option to correct later.

Deeper Inside the Chinese Consumer Spending Data: The shortfall in household spending since 2019 is massive no matter how you count it.

Chinese Weakness is the Real "China Shock": It has been over a year-and-half since the end of "Covid Zero" restrictions, but domestic demand is still so weak that production is only holding up thanks to exports (dumping?)

The Case for Cutting Rates (or Not) is the Same As It Was Last Year: The most recent data are likely overstating the extent of disinflation, especially given what seems to be happening with goods supply and demand.