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The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down: That is not a problem, but it has implications for inflation and interest rates. Plus: inside the September 2024 NIPA revisions.
U.S. Inflation Is Still Hotter than Pre-Pandemic. And that's Okay.: Underlying measures of prices are still rising about one percentage point or so faster than they were in 2017-2019. But there is nothing wrong with this new normal, even if may not be fully priced in.
The Case for Huge Fed Rate Cuts Up Front (And Maybe Some Hikes Later): The goal should be getting to "neutral" as quickly as possible. Since no one knows where that is, optimal policy should consist of moving down quickly while preserving the option to correct later.
Chinese Weakness is the Real "China Shock": It has been over a year-and-half since the end of "Covid Zero" restrictions, but domestic demand is still so weak that production is only holding up thanks to exports (dumping?)
The Case for Cutting Rates (or Not) is the Same As It Was Last Year: The most recent data are likely overstating the extent of disinflation, especially given what seems to be happening with goods supply and demand.