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Patient Capital

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Summary

Sector Generalists
Content Type Commentary
Website Twitter
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Average Rating 9.0
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$GOOG vs. $TSLA in the Automated Driving Systems Leaderboard (per Guidehouse).

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June 8, 2023, 2:12 p.m.

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Retweeted post by @Daniel Ek
Daniel Ek
Congratulations on your first video podcast on Spotify @acquiredfm! And Thanks for making the trip to Stockholm - had a lot of fun! I loved the discussion about what it means to be a creator today… ⁠ ⁠

May 18, 2023, 1:27 p.m.

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Replying to @Clark Square Capital

@ClarkSquareCap There’s also a long, recent discussion of Grenke $GLJ from April in this letter (from a former Shareholder Value Management employee):

Clark Square Capital
Ennismore on Grenke AG

May 17, 2023, 7:21 a.m.

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Interesting thread about recent changes at small cap sandwich chain Potbelly $PBPB ($250m market cap, covered by 1 sell-side analyst).

David Polansky
Potbelly is one of the more interesting setups IMO. Been a dumpster fire since IPO and COVID nearly killed them (lots of office, catering, and airport). Entire board and mgmt. team replaced in the last two years and executing what seems to be an effective turnaround... $PBPB

May 13, 2023, 3:52 p.m.

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@1MainCapital 2/2 At first this might look bleak re stock picking. But the dispersion of ytd returns of the remaining 495 stocks in the S&P 500 is (usually) extreme. Last week: >150 stocks outperformed the S&P 500 index return (avg: +18% ytd) like $FDX $CPRT vs. ~200 constituents in the red.

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April 28, 2023, 1:47 p.m.

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Replying to @1 Main Capital

@1MainCapital 1/2 While mathematically correct, people often misread the gist of these breakdowns imo. S&P 500 YTD shows a +7.7% return. The chart says: 5.5pp or >70% of the increase were driven by ONLY 5 STOCKS. The corollary: 495 stocks created in sum, cap weighted only a +2.2% ytd return.

1 Main Capital
Incredible. h/t 🔒 account

April 28, 2023, 1:46 p.m.

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"MSFT could offer regional concessions to the CMA, such as excluding $ATVI games from the Game Pass catalog in the UK. This would enable them to gain regulatory clearance while still having the ability to add games to its subscription catalog in other regions." - Wedbush Sec.

Patient Capital
6/9 Looking at some rough numbers over the past decade, it seems the CAT sides with the CMA in ~2/3rds of all merger appeals vs. 1/3 in favor of the applicants.

April 27, 2023, 12:13 p.m.

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9/9 "I'd argue Stadia’s failure is evidence that absent a MSFT-level investment the cloud gaming market will never come into being in the first place. In other words, the UK isn’t protecting competition in cloud gaming; it’s making cloud gaming impossible to ever be competitive."

April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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7/9 After the Tribunal, the UK's next higher instance should be the "Court of Appeal" which can overrule CAT decisions.

April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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8/9 CMA's decision today to block the merger because it would "substantially weaken competition" in the (nascent) cloud gaming market, leaves many open questions imo. Closing this thread with the tweet hereafter and an older quote from the usual great Ben Thompson.

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April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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6/9 Looking at some rough numbers over the past decade, it seems the CAT sides with the CMA in ~2/3rds of all merger appeals vs. 1/3 in favor of the applicants.

April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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5/9 However, the CAT doesn't create brand new verdicts. Instead it remits its cases back to CMA for a review - usually by the same people working on it before. So: "A second investigation reached broadly the same conclusions as the first and the CMA AGAIN ordered JD to sell FA"

April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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4/9 An interesting case stems from the year 2020, when the CAT overruled a CMA verdict. The CMA previously ordered that JD Sports must divest its 2019 acquisition of Footasylum since it would harm competition in the UK sportswear market.

April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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3/9 Looking forward to see some experts coming up with an expected timeline for the completion of this appeal. Historically, the Tribunal aims to hear cases in less than nine months.

April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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2/9 The CAT (UK's Competition Appeal Tribunal) is a different judicial body than the CMA. Appeal cases are heard before 3 CAT members: the President or Chairman plus 2 ordinary members, who can be experts in law, business, accounting, economics or other related fields.

April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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1/9 $MSFT $ATVI appealing to the CAT means they will have to demonstrate how the CMA today acted irrationally, illegally or with procedural impropriety.

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April 26, 2023, 3:36 p.m.

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"Named Executive Officers are required to invest 75% of their after-tax bonus into $CSU shares and must hold them for 4 years." Mark Leonard:"I’ve traditionally travelled on economy tickets and stayed at modest hotels because I wasn’t happy freeloading on the CSU shareholders."

Sleepwell🛌
Highlights from the $CSU Compensation Program, which is rare for a public company. The objective is attracting highly skilled executives and reward and retain those who create long-term value for shareholders, but the way they do it is quite unique. 1/n
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April 26, 2023, 9:49 a.m.

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Retweeted post by @the10thman
the10thman
Breaking down $EA

April 13, 2023, 6:05 p.m.

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Replying to @Bear Force 1

@BearForce_Won Found the last one was pleasantly entertaining. So if you find the time in between meetings/presentations, please go ahead.

Bear Force 1
Thinking about doing another one of these at MS next week to pass the time

Feb. 28, 2023, 12:34 p.m.

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Replying to @Jerry Capital

@JerryCap Thanks for letting me know! Hopefully this one works as it should:

Jerry Capital
@patient_capital Having trouble with this link.

Feb. 24, 2023, 3:37 p.m.

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3) $V (while I didn't publish any recent update on VISA, my core beliefs about what could happen in the future are more or less unchanged vs. my 2021 investor letter). Thank you for your interest & kind regards!

Patient Capital
Investors are raising concerns about a growth ceiling for $V and $MA. I discuss how volumes could grow 5x over 10 years with the help of B2B in my annual letter to investors. Learn more: 👉🏼
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Feb. 24, 2023, 12:33 p.m.

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Interviews only allow for a certain amount of depth. So in case one is interested, I'll attach some recent, longer threads on all three mentioned companies below. 1) $FMX

Patient Capital
1/14 A lot to unpack regarding the result of FEMSA's strategic review. $FMX stock gained +9% (~$3 bn.) yesterday and now trades at 52W high. FMX will divest its 14.8% stake in Heineken worth ~$7.9 bn pre tax (23% of market cap) and return excess cash to shareholders over 2-3yrs.
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Feb. 24, 2023, 12:33 p.m.

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2) $GOOGL

Patient Capital
1/25 Uncommon Facts about $GOOG Common Stock Google apps with 1 bn+ users: 1 bn: Photos 1 bn: Maps 2 bn: Gmail 2 bn: YouTube 3 bn: Play 3 bn: Android 3 bn: Workspace 3 bn: Chrome 4 bn: Search I talk about Search, YouTube, Cloud and Waymo here:
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Feb. 24, 2023, 12:33 p.m.

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Sat down with "DAS INVESTMENT" to talk about how I advise the Covesto Patient Capital fund since taking over in 2020 and why I'm not trying to be original. I've invested ~100% of my liquid assets in the fund and briefly touch upon $V $FMX $GOOG (in german)

Feb. 24, 2023, 12:33 p.m.

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Retweeted post by @YHamilton
YHamilton
2nd issue of AGB in 2023 is Intuit $INTU -Leading provider financial management and tax prep software -QuickBooks platform powering future growth -Live offering should increase retention rates and ARPC Would appreciate a like/retweet. Thanks for reading!

Feb. 20, 2023, 7:18 p.m.

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