OMI update: The short idea has worked with the stock down about 64% over the last 8 months. To be clear, I did not expect the stock to decline this much, although the market environment has changed a lot over the last 8 months for highly levered companies like OMI.
Oct. 12, 2022, 6:56 p.m.
[Special situation] Gores Holdings V warrants: Typically, I invest in businesses with a 5 years horizon, but sometimes I’d like to allocate a small part of my portfolio for what I call “special situations”. These are ideas that I think have potential for high returns short- term. To be very frank, this is a way to simply scratch my itch by researching something completely new to expand my circle of competence, and at the same time have the potential to be rewarded quickly, yet keeping the rest o
July 14, 2021, 1:48 p.m.
Olo part 2 - Value proposition: *This post was done in collaboration with Ryan from Investing City (https://www.investingcity.org/). I highly recommend his service and is really something that can help investors quickly get to speed on new companies and industries! Thank you again Ryan!
June 2, 2021, 2:01 p.m.
[Special situation] Global Blue warrants - Asymmetric risk/reward: The subject of this post is something that falls out of what I believe is my circle of competence (food delivery, food tech, related industries). However, this idea looks really interesting and I would like feedback from the investment community. Am I missing something?
May 10, 2021, 2:50 p.m.
Deliveroo part 9 - 1Q21 update: $ROO reported its 1Q21 results. There were a couple of interesting data points but it was within my expectations Misconception on 1Q21 orders growth The one thing that I knew people will get “excited” about was the order growth rate of the UK business. Order growth in 1Q looked high at 121% and uninformed investors got excited. It looked like an acceleration.
April 27, 2021, 4:33 p.m.
Olo part 1 - History of food delivery: It’s April and it’s time for a new series. This series covers Olo and why we believe it’s a valuable business that is worth keeping an eye on. We would also like to get feedback from fellow investors on our thought process so here goes. *This post was done in collaboration with Ryan from Investing City (https://www.investingcity.org/). I highly recommend his service and is really something that can help investors quickly get to speed on new companies and in
April 9, 2021, 12:56 p.m.
Deliveroo part 8 - The aftermath: “I wish good luck (not really, you brought this on yourself) to any investor that decides to participate in DROO’s IPO” - Newmooncap Looks like the market has some sense after all. This post is meant to close off the Deliveroo series. I’ll still touch base every quarter, covering key data points and changes in the business that might influence its long term future. However, there probably isn’t enough new information coming out of the company outside of the quar
April 5, 2021, 12:46 p.m.
Deliveroo part 7 - Valuation: I am writing a long post because I don’t have time to write a short post.* *Wrote this before the valuation range came out. I mean, £8bn at the mid-point… that’s pretty high. That prices the company on a much higher valuation than $DASH on a comparable accounting perspective. Also, existing investors which include Will Shu will be selling OVER £600mn shares...interesting
March 22, 2021, 9:57 a.m.
Deliveroo part 6 - White label killed the delivery star: Judging from the twitter DMs, several of my points from my previous post have gone over the head of some investors, particularly the one around Signature (white label delivery). Thinking of Nando’s before going to Deliveroo Deliveroo is at risk of getting disrupted because a large proportion of its orders/sales are from a small selection of chain restaurants — 10 chains represent 35% of ALL UK orders. Some of such chains include Nando’s, W
March 13, 2021, 3:07 p.m.
Deliveroo part 5 - Top 10 red flags: Comment from Jitse ($TKWY CEO) “I do know 2021 is going to look an awful lot different from 2020 in the UK.” 1. Casually firing 75% of its S&M employees Yes...the sign of a healthy business that deserves to trade at over 20x LTM gross profit, firing 75% of your S&M staff in a single year.
March 10, 2021, 5:08 p.m.
Deliveroo part 4 - Hell is coming. Gross profit might decline by more than 50%: “If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.” - Warren Buffett Growth could be a disaster for Deliveroo as the business struggles with multiple headwinds in 2H21 and 2022. Gross profit could easily decline by more than
March 1, 2021, 4:31 p.m.
Deliveroo part 3 - How did Deliveroo managed growth in the past: The past week has been a crazy one – within a single week, 3 rulings were passed which will have a major impact on the way food delivery platforms operate in the future. Before we go further into the post. Let me reiterate some obvious points regarding food delivery. Food delivery is a network effect business. The player with the stronger and larger network will dominate the industry. There are basically 3 key elements in this netw
Feb. 22, 2021, 2:47 p.m.
Uber Eats UK part 2 - Market share and future strategy: Before we delve further, let’s have a look at the current UK food delivery share. In contrast to popular narrative, $UBER and Deliveroo have not gained share from $TKWY. This is despite being in the best position to take advantage of market environment (COVID). $UBER share of orders has been flat once we remove discounted orders.
Feb. 16, 2021, 5:09 p.m.
Uber Eats UK part 1 - Not all share is created equal: We believe we’re winning in places like the U.K and Japan...and we are continuing to improve the economics Dara’s latest comment has caused a stir (bullish sentiments) within the investment community (RE:Fintwit). I’ve received messages asking why haven’t I talked about Uber Eats in the UK, and mainly focus on Deliveroo? Well, that is because I truly believe that $UBER is in a much weaker position than Deliveroo, despite having more market sh
Feb. 16, 2021, 4:03 p.m.
