the full piece is worth reading:

really enjoyed this piece from 2010 arguing while recessions are never going away, just don't expect to be able to forecast it. (loved the Buffett quote even though the spelling is wrong) h/t 🔒

Not quite "samesies" in stock price performance though.

Samesies.

Writing is a cathartic experience in the present and revealing in the future as it helps you connect to your thoughts/ideas in the past. This is also why you want to be authentic in your writing because otherwise you impede the conversation with yourself.

“Well, I think I wanted the friendship more than he did.” Warren paused, and when he spoke again, his voice cracked. “Ben was my hero and my friend.” His light blue eyes widened and his face took on a youthful, eager, and fierce expression. “It helps to have heroes who are better…

@MarceloPLima sure, it may be. Nobody quite expects Meta to dominate the metaverse profit pool yet; if anything FRL's valuation still likely starts with a negative sign. To the extent there is any profit at all to share among companies, the stock may be fine. In the meantime, I will be…

@TheGarpInvestor Yes, there’s probably room for both but given two pretty divergent approaches, one may be proven better than the other. Too early to call out which one will have better economics.

Source:

I personally admire Apple's ability to serve their customers in an aesthetically and technically superior ways, but it is indeed often underappreciated that Meta and Google may be the only two companies in the history of capitalism to make most of their products affordable and…

First impression on Vision Pro I kinda liked Apple's Vision Pro. As a Quest 2 DAU, I can tell you I don't enjoy not knowing the physical space surrounding me. So, a mixed reality see-through display with ability to decide how much I want to immerse to a virtual world vs…

First impression on Vision Pro I kinda liked Apple's Vision Pro. As a Quest 2 DAU, I can tell you I don't enjoy not knowing the physical surrounding me. So, a mixed reality see-through display with ability to decide how much I want to immerse to a virtual world vs physical…

"the value of AI tools is likely to be less driven by the platform (e.g., OpenAI), and more defined by proprietary data and/or user network effects. ...There is a bit of an echo here to the early days of the Internet where analog dollars were turned into digital pennies, but we…

While Apple Pay is often cited as the main bear case for $PYPL, the near-term bull/bear debate for the stock is likely to be largely settled by Cross-border (XB) transaction trajectory. XB used to be 21% of PYPL’s TPV in 2017 which came down to only 13% in 2022. I sort of…

@JerryCap Good way to sell at the bottom (or not buy at the bottom) is being razor focused on consolidated numbers and deciding stocks still look expensive on consolidated numbers

If you are forced to choose, when would you choose to underperform?

I will publish my Deep Dive on $BRO this month and will cover one of the railroad companies next month. Check out all the past 35 Deep Dives here

Read the full Deep Dive here

Someone recently asked me which one is my favorite Deep Dive so far. It is Sherwin Williams. I have just taken $SHW off the paywall (originally published in December 2022)

If you enjoy my work, feel free to checkout my website; I publish one Deep Dive every month (35 so far).

I expect PYPL buyback to provide a strong downside protection here, but for the upside to materialize, button EBIT needs to grow at least MSD+ and the ex-core PYPL needs to convert GP to EBIT soon. I like the LT odds, but I'm under no delusion of a "Meta like rebound" here.

Here's my original notes on PYPL

look, when stock goes down 80%, it's generally not because investors are dumb. There are usually real blemishes that the company needs to address. If it does that successfully, lots of people will "claim" it was obvious; hat's very rarely so (almost never) in public market.

"true button" business likely generated $3.5 Bn EBIT in 2022. On one hand, core PYPL EBIT was likely down last year, but on the other hand, it's +50% from 2020. 2023-24 may be the most critical years for investors to untangle Covid overhang from normalized growth for button

lots of pushback on using 8x GP multiple for ex-core PYPL segment. I showed a bit more granular breakdown why ~8x GP is likely reasonable.