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Draws & Deals — Week №31 Review: Welcome to the weekly, a regular update on inventories, themes, and factors we are watching, in the physical, paper, and equity markets — and what a fun little week it was in Calgary — we got a big asset transaction, a new public player, a huge crude draw — and the weather was nice the entire time.

Back From Break: Both the blog, and crude oil

Win, Lose, or Draw?: Our second half inventory math

2H23: Not Out of the Woods: 16 things I'm thinking about

"Comp"rehensive Analysis: When FCF yield isn't enough

Tenaz Energy: Out of Control: Tenaz has gotten themselves into an interesting situation, I believe — the factors that would see the business increasing in value, at this point, are entirely out of management’s control. While shareholders may believe they are investing in an experienced leadership team with the mandate of creating value (and that is not refutable, their CEO has almost 2 decades under his belt leading Canadian public E&Ps) — there are really three factors, ex-M&A, that will drive

OPEC Pre-Meeting: There is a lot of discussion about what may happen tomorrow, and what OPEC decides to do with their production quotas — cut, or maintain. Feel free to read my discussion after the previous meeting (note post-OPEC+ meeting in April) — while many of the same longer-term themes still remain — continued downwards pressure on oil prices have been a consistent theme since the last meeting, and the Kingdom has certainly shown disdain towards crude traders perhaps not providing a futur

The PubCo Incentive: Misaligned motivations destroy shareholder value

Rig Realism: The US doesn't matter anymore

Ju-n-ior Own Out Here: Now isn't the time to hang out down market

Whitecap: It's Accrual World: Quick take on their May 23rd CRA notice

The Path Higher, or Lower?: How different really is it this time

Surge Energy: Old Dogs, New Tricks?: A history of overpromising, and underdelivering

Dividend Sustainability vs. Scalability: Yes, there's a difference. Yes, you need to know it.

Oriental Oil Pt. 1 — Iraq: How Baghdad impacts 'Berta.

The Chinese Diesel Red Herring: Are things really getting bad in the east?

Frontera — Let's Be Realistic: Even building in a generous value for Guyana prospects, compared to peers, Frontera equity feels very fairly valued.

The Cadence of E&P Multiples: How valuations have, and may evolve

Window Dressing, or Good Business?: ExxonMobil and Pioneer would make sense, from Exxon's perspective.

Revisiting the Energy Capital Cycle: What trends have we incorrectly been transposing to the bullish thesis, and what does a healthy bull market look like going forward?

OPEC+? More like OPEC Minus: OPEC+ really is a group of rascals — way to ruin a perfectly good Sunday with some nuclear news for the energy guys. A voluntary production cut of this size, certainly shifts the oil market’s paradigm back into the cartel’s favour. There has been a lot of discussion about this decision — rightfully so — the bears have touted this as a reflexive move in response to prevailing demand weakness, and perhaps an underperforming China (surely OPEC would know things that we

Russia Production Possibilities: Some themes people have missed

The Best Way to Play Gas Isn't in BC : It’s no secret that natural gas in North America is in for a rough year, the Henry Hub cash contract is down 40% since the start of the year, and over 70% from the highs of 2022, and AECO is in a similar boat. While the natural gas weighted equities have shown some resiliency thanks to the back end of the futures strip holding up (you do have to have some semblance of a long term view when buying gas here). Volatility in near-term pricing should lead to gre

Tourmaline's California Opportunity: “Canadian oil and gas”, and "California” are two words you typically wouldn’t hear in the same sentence — after-all, most proponents of fossil fuels skew critical of California and their liberal energy policies, but for Tourmaline, California is quite literally