Winds of Change

The Software Slog: As a newly minted high school grad I had a brief stint as a wildland firefighter. Part of training for the job was a timed 10-mile walk with a 60-pound pack. It was on a high school track in early June in Montana. And it was a slog. Running 10 miles is painful, but it goes by relatively quickly and there is a rush of accomplishment at the end. Hiking 10 miles can be tiring, but there are views and trees and stuff. But this was boring, exhausting, and progress inched by. At the

Don't be foie gras: If 2016-2020 was the golden unicorn age of SaaS, 2021 nearly hurtled us into the foie gras* era. I say “nearly” because the current market correction may head off the trend of overstuffing private software companies with capital in the hope they grow faster.

Vertical Aggregation: I’ve written in the past that I think returns for SaaS won’t be as attractive over the next decade. This view is focused on enterprise software. I am more bullish on SMB SaaS, primarily on vertical-specific players which I will discuss below. Vertical Aggregation

Category velocity: People make decisions, not businesses. And, the same people who stand in-line for limited edition sneakers, use GoodRX coupons for their prescriptions, buy travel protection on their United flight, and Prime a couple hundred different items in preparation for having a baby also are making decisions about what software their company should use.

The Wrong Bet: The next decade in SaaS won't look like the last

23 things you should know : 1: Management’s true confidence is reflected in how fast they are hiring 2: Sales heads added this year are next years incremental revenue 3: Product-led growth SaaS companies should be analyzed similar to internet - downloads, intensity of usage, viral coefficient

Model transitions: A framework for value creation: And a quick and dirty look at SPLK, NTNX, and GWRE

Thinking incrementally about SaaS: An overview of the key output of the growth software machine

Crypto and Chasing the Dragon: Marc and Ben’s midlife crisis and the Crypto Crusades

Explaining the growth software sell-off: The terminal value double whammy of rising interest rates

Thoughts on SaaS and other things: Welcome to Buck on Software! I’ll post ~weekly commentary and the occasional deep dive on a company I am interested in. Bio: Longtime software industry analyst Sign up now so you don’t miss the first issue. In the meantime, tell your friends!