Tesla's Won't Fix Its Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

Tesla Q1 Deliveries: Look Out Below: Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y

Tesla Q1 Trends: Rockslide: You know it's bad when delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates—no thanks to the hapless CyberTruck which continues to shoot Tesla in the foot.

Elon Musk Can't Be Trusted. He Also Can't Be Stopped, Apparently.: Tesla Q1 must be worse than I expected based on the uptick in Elon Musk's unhinged lies, hate speech, interference in US national security, wacko conspiracies—plus his self-flattering fake alter ego.

Doh! Here's My Tesla Model, As Promised: I referred a lot in last night's report to my latest Tesla model, updated with its disappointing fourth-quarter results. Too bad I forgot to attach it!

Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't: As I warned, troubled Q4 results tracked my ests but were worse than even plunging market ests following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat". My 2024 model flags more trouble ahead.

Elon Musk's "Global Sewer" May Derail Bankers' Trying To Finally Dump Toxic Twitter LBO Debt: Elon Musk totally screwed his bankers who foolishly funded his Twitter LBO. Big mistake. I show how Banks can take over control from Elon, Twitter goes into recovery, & banks begin to recoup losses.

What Really Happened to Tesla's latest Ex-CFO?: Tesla's Q3 10-Q reveals CFO Zach Kirkhorn was fired. It also made Kirkhorn reveal any whistleblower efforts, threatened him if he talks—then declare Tesla broke no laws. Is Tesla setting up ex-CFO?

Tesla's Problem is Fading Demand, Not Disruptive Factory "Updates" : Factory shutdowns for "updates" don't explain Tesla's huge Q3 miss on deliveries because bloated excess inventory was enough to cover the 20k "miss" some 3-5x. Accelerating demand erosion does.

Tesla Q3 Deliveries Are Looking Ugly: Market consensus estimates for Tesla's Q3 deliveries have been falling so hard and fast they now approach my formerly well below market estimate. Cue the spin.

Elon Musk's Latest X-ceptionally Bad Idea: Musk has killed Twitter's last and greatest value—its strong, globally recognized brand worth as much as $20 billion—by renaming it X. As in, fill in whatever the heck it is now.

Tesla Q2: Solid Beat, At Any Cost: Q2 deliveries solidly higher vs expectations, thanks to 11th hour fire sales on top of fire sales to move sluggish inventory. Margins & profits probably can't recover as more is already needed in Q3.

Tesla's Panicky Q2: Everything Must Go!: Prices have been slashed and slashed again, on top of expensive incentives like free charging, cheap leases, & juicy subsidies. But Tesla has been unable to ease elevated inventory in key markets.

Elon Musk Doesn't Want You To Get Too Attached To Twitter's New CEO: Musk proves he's not interested in anyone else actually running Twitter or making it safe for key advertisers or even breakeven so his wary bankers can offload to investors a refi of its crushing debt

Tesla's Still Bloated Inventory Signals June Sales May Disappoint, Along With Q2 Market Estimates: Tesla traditionally sells 50-60% of total quarterly sales in the last month—until now. Stubbornly high inventory levels signal that trend is at risk, along with ambitious market estimates for Q2

Elon Is Scared Poopless Of Us: Unlike every other (far larger & richer) social media site, Elon has declared war on Substack and anyone who dares post here as well as on Twitter. His bullying will continue until morale improves.

Tesla Q1 Deliveries "Beat" Rapidly Falling Market Estimates But Miss Management Guidance: Tesla managed a late hour surge needed to "beat" rapidly falling market estimates, but results still shy of management's target for more than 37% y/y growth (and abandoned goal for more than 50% y/y).

Twitter Equity Worth $20 Billion? Guess Again: Elon Musk recently told employees Twitter equity is now worth $20 billion, far less than he paid. Good luck with even that. I estimate EV at little more than $13 billion in debt. So what's he up to?

Here We Go Again: Tesla Q1 Deliveries Tracking Another Miss: Tesla is running out of time and options to help it meet still ambitious market estimates for Q1 deliveries, revenue, and profits—as I had projected.

Hello, Comeuppance: NHTSA recalls all Teslas with Auto pilot FSDBeta: NHTSA recalled all Teslas with FSDBeta, 362,000 cars. This comes before substantial upgrades to Autopilot including the return of radar. So, NO legacy Teslas really are FSD hardware ready, right Elon?

Tesla's Demand Problems Aren't Going Away: The market says Tesla's 20-30% price cuts will reverse stalling demand, even though several rounds of expensive cuts & incentives in Q4 didn't. I'm not convinced, as shown in my 2023 model & forecast.

Tesla Q4: Stalling Growth, Shrinking Margins, Weaker Guidance, Mystery "Investment": Tesla's big miss on Q4 deliveries turned into stalling revenue growth, sharply lower margins, & reduced guidance—as I expected. So what's the mysterious $4.4 billion "investment"? Asking for a bird.

Tesla Q4: Elon's Burning It All Down : I've long warned 2H this year will mark passing of Tesla's dominance—mainly cuz larger EV mkt is catching up & doing EV better. Fading China sales & Elon's Twitter mess is taking it down even faster.

Elon Sold More Falling Tesla Stock. Margin Calls? Twitter Failing? Bank Demands? Likely All Three.: Elon sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he & Twitter need serious cash NOW. His banks know why & they want Elon to buy back from them billions of Twitter's riskiest LBO debt.

Elon Is "Saving" Twitter To Death: New owner Elon Musk is blowing up Twitter in record time by driving away revenue, gutting headcount to levels unable to sustain the platform, and putting the company into accelerating legal jeopardy.