Where are we now? VP's 2025 Top 10 Surprises

Tariffs will continue until morale improves

Updated LEIs still point to upside inflation surprises, mixed growth

Where we are tracking: soft vs hard landing (Jan 2025)

Variant Perception is hiring a Full-Stack Engineer!

US inflation: not fully out of the woods yet

Variant Perception is hiring a Client Development Associate!

China Leading Indicator Watch

Making CapEx Great Again

US Election Cycles

Big Government, Big Business, Big Labor

Opening the Box on Schrodinger's Recession

The How, What, and Why of VP's Asset Allocation Engine: Asset allocation using leading indicators, capital cycle & crowding

Eurozone Leading Indicator Watch: This post is an excerpt from the Eurozone section of our September 6, 2024 G3 Leading Indicator Watch report to VP clients.

China - Tradeable bazooka, not yet a real bazooka: This post was originally shared this past Tuesday morning, September 24 with VP clients.

US Leading Indicator Watch: Leading indicators for US growth, consumer, labor, manufacturing, housing, and inflation.

China LEI making new lows, US and EZ LEIs still holding up: This post is an excerpt from our September 6, 2024 G3 Leading Indicator Watch report to VP clients.

3 Key Frameworks - VP August 2024 Asset Allocation Call: Asset allocation using leading indicators, capital cycle & crowding

Understanding VP Central Bank Regime Models: Our central bank policy regime models use a combination of economic and market inputs to classify if a particular central bank is in an “easing” or “hiking” regime.

Stylized Post-Crash Patterns After Initial Low: This post was originally shared with VP clients on August 6, 2024.

Occam’s Razor to FX: The Cyclical / Structural Framework: Beyond Carry and REER

G3 divergence: EZ best, China worst, US outlook suits steepeners - VP July G3 Leading Indicator Watch: This post is an excerpt from the Global & China sections in our July 9, 2024 G3 Leading Indicator Watch report to VP clients.

Which Rate Cuts Will Stick? - VP June EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch: This post is an excerpt from our June 20, 2024 Leading Indicator Watch report to VP clients. The full length, original report can be viewed here. Full report summary New Ideas: Long Mexico bonds (yields lower) Update: SNB cuts=> long EURCHF, Canada credit stress =>long AUDCAD, more dovish BoE => SONIA vs SOFR convergence (SFRZ4Z5 vs SFIZ4Z5)

Understanding The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Decomposition: The Kalecki-Levy profit decomposition is a first principles way to understand the drivers of corporate profit margins using top-down economic flow data

US labor market: what's different this time?: This post is an excerpt from our June 19, 2024 Portfolio Watch report to VP clients. The full length, original report can be viewed here. Full report summary: The dog that didn't bark: US jobless claims vs fiscal deficits Handicapping the risks between moderate labor deterioration and the benefits of a profit recovery