BREAKING: May PPI inflation falls to 1.1%, well below expectations of 1.5%. Core PPI fell to 2.8%, below expectations of 2.9%. This is the 11th straight month with a drop in PPI inflation. Yet another sign that the Fed may finally have inflation under control.

This market is incredible! One of our best $SPX trades of the year has just been completed. We initially went long at 4150 with a 4250 target on our subscriber feed. This target was then raised to 4325 and 4375 which will hit today. Cashed in +220 points for one of our best…

Inflation is now at 4.0% for the first time in 2 years, according to CPI data. But, basic necessities are still seeing much higher rates of inflation in the US. Shelter inflation still stands at 8.0%, Food inflation is at 6.7% and New Vehicles inflation stands at 4.7%. Rent…

Keep in mind, just 3 weeks ago futures were showing THREE rate cuts in 2023. Furthermore, no interest rate hikes were expected. A key theme in this market: Anything is possible and uncertainty is everywhere. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

Futures now show a 0% chance of an interest rate hike at tomorrow's Fed meeting. But, there's still a 65% chance of a rate hike in July. A lot is still up in the air and tomorrow's Fed meeting will be big. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

BREAKING: Fed rate futures now show a 100% chance of NO interest rate hike at tomorrow's Fed meeting. However, there is still a 65% chance of a 25 bps interest rate hike in July. Only 1 interest rate CUT is currently expected for the entire 2023. Markets were waiting for CPI.

BREAKING: May CPI shows inflation at 4.0%, below expectations of 4.1%. Core CPI comes in at 5.3%, in-line with expectations of 5.3%. CPI inflation has now declined for 12 consecutive months. The Fed may finally be winning the fight against inflation.

The stock market hit a fresh 52-week high today and $VIX closed 9% higher. Meanwhile, we have CPI and PPI inflation along with a Fed meeting all within the next 48 hours. Buckle up, this week will be a good one.

Tomorrow, we receive May CPI inflation data but also potentially revised April numbers. April CPI came in at 4.9% which is slightly below the March 5.0% reading. If April CPI is revised above 5.0%, it would mark the first RISE in CPI inflation since July 2022. Continue to…

Median asking rent in the US hasn’t fallen since last year. It’s down from the peak of $2,053 but still up huge from pre-pandemic levels of $1600. Even renting a house has become unaffordable for many Americans. Follow @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

BREAKING: Median asking rent for a US home rises 1.4% in May to $1,995/month. Meanwhile, the average new car payment is now $800/month. On top of this, the average American is paying $430/month in credit card debt. This means the average person is now paying $3,225/month for…

Heading into the Fed meeting on Wednesday, we have some of the most split rate probabilities we have seen. There's now a 24% chance that the Fed raises rates this week and a 71% chance of at least one rate hike by July. Only ONE 25 bps rate cut is now expected in 2023. This…

We have 2 huge inflation reports this week, CPI and PPI. On top of this, the Fed will be making their first rate decision without a clear market consensus. The fight against inflation is now less clear. More uncertainty means more volatility. It’s a great time to be a trader.

The Kobeissi Letter for the week of June 12th has been published and may be viewed through the link below: The Chart of the Week for the week of June 12th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:

Almost all economic data releases and Fed meetings have been great trading opportunity this year. Volatility is a gift to traders. We’re publishing our trade setups for the week shortly. In 2022 our calls made 86%. Subscribe to gain access:

Key Events This Week: 1. May CPI Inflation data - Tuesday 2. May PPI Inflation data - Wednesday 3. June Fed meeting - Wednesday 4. Retail Sales data - Thursday 5. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday 6. 2 Fed speakers Friday, blackout period ends Volatility returns this week.

Nearly 1 out of every 5 offices in the United States are vacant right now. In San Fransisco, this just hit a record 31% and vacancies are rising. Office spaces are empty and retail stores are disappearing due to theft. Meanwhile, over $1.5 trillion in commercial debt will…

The bull trade has been a wild ride! We scalped $SPX longs on our private feed for subscribers at 4150. Got to our 4250 target then raised our target to 4325z Now up over +150 points! Position updates into the weekend coming for subscribers. Join us:

BREAKING: S&P 500 trades above 4300 for the first time since August 2022. The index is now up 23% from its October 2022 low. We are now 12% away from a new all time high close. This is the most resilient stock market in history.

We have had nearly 2 years of inflation at 5%+. Average new car payment is now $800/month. Gas prices are up 80% over the last 3 years. 30-year mortgage interest rates are at 7%+. Credit card debt is at a record $1 trillion. Have people accepted inflation as the new normal?

There is now a 26% chance that the Fed raises interest rates next week. This is the first Fed meeting since they started raising rates where there is not a clear consensus. Base case still shows a 64% chance of at least one rate hike by July. Next week’s Fed meeting is huge.

Increased volatility and market moving events are gifts for traders. We guide our subscribers through volatility every week. In 2022, our trade setups made 86% and 2023 has been great so far. Subscribe to access our analysis and private Twitter feed:

As expected, this week has been purely technical consolidation and choppy price action. We have seen this in every week leading up to a Fed meeting this year. Next week, we have PPI and CPI inflation data in addition to the Fed meeting. Feels like the calm before the storm.

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