Noteworthy UK Carnage

S4 Capital: When Knights Cry

The Osisko Buy-Out: A Bittersweet Bird in the Hand

H1 2024 Portfolio Review: Full portfolio breakdown and discussion of each position

Hysan Development: Maximum pessimism: Earlier this week I presented Mandarin Oriental as a low risk, special situation way to buy Hong Kong real estate. In contrast, today I will summarise my view of Hysan Development, a HK-listed developer with no special situation element at all. Despite a high-quality portfolio centred around one of the city’s best retail districts (Causeway Bay), Hysan is simply table-pounding cheap. In my view, it has been caught out as a relative small cap in a sector wher

Mandarin Oriental: Don't Lose Money: I wanted to compile my notes and seek feedback on Mandarin Oriental; a company I own indirectly through Jardine Matheson and an interesting prospect on its own. While I don’t yet own the stock, my thesis boils down to two key points: Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer of $3.8b for the site in 2017. For those unfamiliar, this site is being massively

2023 Portfolio Review: For calendar year 2023, the Superfluous Value portfolio gained 24.9%, modestly outperforming the MSCI ACWI IMI which rose 20.8% (both in AUD). The Aussie Dollar was flat for the year implying a near identical return in constant currency (USD). Since I began formally tracking my portfolio in Aug 2018, I have gained a cumulative 54%, underperforming the index which has returned 55.4% (both in AUD) by .2% per year.

Petrobras: They're Panicking Again: I just wanted to share a quick note regarding last week’s sell-off in Petrobras, as my thoughts have deepened over the weekend. My initial reaction was mild frustration or indifference, as the shares have faced regular shake-outs like this over my three year holding period- no big deal.

H1 2023 Portfolio Review: For the first half of 2023, the Superfluous Value portfolio gained 10% in AUD, underperforming the MSCI ACWI IMI, which climbed 15.3% (also AUD). The weaker Australian Dollar added a slight tailwind, as I was only up 7.9% in USD. Since I began formally tracking my portfolio in Aug 2018, I have gained a cumulative 30%, underperforming the MSCI which has returned 41.6% (both in AUD) by 1.8% pa.

Superfluous Value on Tour: Ashmore Plc: Hi all, I guest wrote an article for my friend Olivier while he is enjoying a sunny August in Barcelona. I dig into UK fund manager Ashmore Plc, who specialise in EM debt and have seen their share price crater in recent years. Despite this, the company maintains excellent cash generation, a pristine balance sheet and an 8.5% dividend. I believe it can see huge upside this decade as its style comes back into favour.

Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade: Value investing is often described as running towards the fire or seeking out disaster. Often, outstanding returns can be had as the market reverts from total capitulation, to merely bad. In the case of Brazil today, an investor is paying capitulation pricing for prospects that are already better than merely bad.

CBD: When the Catalyst Is Slapping You in the Face: I recently made my first purchase for the year, buying a core position in Brazilian holdco Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (CBD:NYSE). I believe it has merely been caught up in the general market/SIVB sell-off and the price being offered is too good to pass up.

2022 Portfolio Review: For calendar year 2022, the Superfluous Value portfolio fell 12.4%, essentially steady against the MSCI ACWI IMI which lost 12.5% (both in AUD). The declining Aussie Dollar, once again, proved a tailwind, as I was down 16.3% when measured in constant currency (USD).

The Bubble Isn't Where You Think It Is: Just a short pre-Christmas note today. A number of market pundits have been giving the all clear to jump back in the pool now that crypto has been nuked and Peleton et al are down 80%+. Yes, those were bubbles of the more ridiculous variety, but the S&P 500 is still dangerously expensive and growth stocks are not the sole reason.

Petrobras: Pricing Amargeddon, With a Muddle Through Likely: I had to write a brief note about the panic whipped up by UBS’ downgrade of Petrobras, cutting its price target from R$47 to R$22 on fears of a policy shift under the incoming Lula administration. This combined with quarterly ex-dividend day, to send the shares sharply lower and extend their slide since the election.

Let's talk about LILAK: “Overall, we believe that through our operational and inorganic progress, we are set to deliver meaningful adjusted free cash flow growth in the coming years, particularly as synergies are achieved. And it is hard to contemplate any M&A with better risk-adjusted returns than the current opportunity to repurchase our own securities

The Micro Focus Buy-Out: Vindication?: After banging the drum on Micro Focus for several years, a suitor has arrived, with Canadian software firm OpenText offering to acquire the company for an Enterprise Value of $6b or $6.30 (532p)/share. I have mixed emotions here and will try to sum up my thinking since the deal was announced (

H1 2022 Portfolio Review: For the first half of 2022, the Superfluous Value portfolio fell 14.7% in AUD, modestly outperforming the MSCI ACWI IMI, which fell 16.5%. The weaker Australian Dollar cushioned the decline, as I was down 18.3% in constant currency (USD). More importantly, since I began formally tracking my portfolio in Aug 2018, I have gained a cumulative 20%, narrowly underperforming the MSCI which has returned 22.7% (both in AUD).

Millicom: Special Sit Dynamics Throwing Up A Bargain: I try to follow the Buffett, punch-card approach to portfolio management and, accordingly, have barely transacted in the last year. But a set-up is emerging that may be one of the most attractive I have seen in several years. Millicom’s (NYSE:TIGO) share price has been under severe pressure since late last year, in part due to the strengthening USD and weakness in the telco sector, but laregely due to uncertainty around a now-announced Rights

Teekay Corp: A near net-net, special situation: I am quite wary of the shipping industry, due to an almost flawless tendency towards value destruction, but have been following Teekay Corp (NYSE:TK) for several months after the recent sale of its LNG division has left it with enough net cash to cover its market cap.

Portfolio Update: Russia: I have been horrified watching the evil and unprovoked war unfolding in Ukraine over the last month. It is a brutal reminder for many of us how lucky we are to live where we take the safety of our family for granted. My heart goes out to the Ukrainians affected and I hope for sustainable peace as soon as possible.

Mid-debacle thoughts: Saipem: Everyone ends up bagholding a steaming pile of turd in the markets sometimes and for me that time is apparently now (the most recent example, anyway). The company is Saipem (SPM.IT), the Italian energy services company I have owned for nearly a year and written about a couple of times (

2021 Portfolio Review: For calendar year 2021, the Superfluous Value portfolio gained 29.7% in AUD, comparing favourably to the MSCI ACWI IMI which gained 23.5%. The declining Aussie Dollar proved a tailwind for the year, as I was up 23% when measured in constant currency (USD).

On Questioning The Greats: I am a well-documented fan of GMO (legendary investment firm Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co) and devour every public contribution from its key figures; particularly Jeremy Grantham, Ben Inker and especially James Montier, who is the author of one of my

Micro Focus: Hanging in There: I have been fairly open about Micro Focus being one of my larger positions and I know I have introduced the idea to a few people, so I wanted to share my thoughts following the company’s strategy update last week. The market has been extremely underwhelmed by the company following their earnings release mid-year, with the shares down over 40% since June.