Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down

DOGE recession?

Inflation. How worried should we be?

The Fed gets to be boring for now

The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections isn't living up to its promises

Why is growth so good and how do we keep it going?

The reckoning with inflation

Who's afraid of a negative payroll print?

Ones to watch

It's harder to find work and that's unacceptable

Fifty: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce its policy rate on Wednesday.

Labor market conditions. : Tomorrow is the jobs report for August 2024.

Looking back to look forward: Jackson Hole preview : Fed Chair Jay Powell will deliver his annual remarks this Friday at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With the Fed poised to start its rate-cutting cycle next month, any hints on the size and speed of the adjustments will be highly sought. His earlier speeches there, which tell us a considerable amount of how he thinks at a high level about monetary policy, are a good preview.

Cut: It's time.

Sahm-thing more on the Sahm rule: The rise in the unemployment rate has raised concerns about the possibility of a recession, but the story is not as simple as the usual rules of thumb.

Getting back to normal : Fed Chair Jay Powell is on the Hill this week with the latest employment numbers fresh in everyone's minds.

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation: Last week, we learned more about inflation. It was good news, but not good enough for the Fed and certainly not for the American people.

Anger about the economy is everywhere: Inflation is out of control, the US is in a recession, and unemployment is high--at least that's what "the survey says." Or is it?

Confidence is the name of the Fed game: Wednesday we get the CPI for April. The stakes are high after the three tough months. It feels like every basis point counts, but that's not true.

It's the pandemic, stupid: Fed week. Everyone will be listening for clues on how the Fed might react to three months of disappointing inflation. It's what we won't hear that matters.

All good things in moderation: Fed communication needs a reboot: Communication policy is a powerful tool for the Fed, but it's become overpowering. Hearing from the Fed is a good thing, but too much of a good thing is not good.

Sticky is not stuck: inflation : Inflation. Inflation. Inflation. It's been a rough start to the year on inflation, but it's not all bad news. Most importantly, it shows a path forward if we choose to follow it.

The Labor Market Is Strong: In March 2023, the U.S. labor market continued its rock solid push forward, with 303,000 more jobs and the unemployment rate back down to 3.8%. Are there cracks below the surface? Not really.

No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools! - Revised: I am sending a more ‘just the facts’ version of Friday’s post on the Sahm rule. It’s updated on the website, too. Apologies for ‘the me’ in the original post. That’s gone. It’s odd to have a rule named after me, and it's not always pleasant. Even so, I’m happy it’s helpful,

No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools!: The Sahm rule has gotten more attention recently and predictably that has come with questions about who created it. I did. Now is a good opportunity to talk about on macro tools in general.