Looking to 2025

The rise and rise of public debt

Shifting macro risks

No summer calm...: The (northern) summer has been dominated by political and economic turbulence; expect more to come

Political regime change: Beyond the busy election calendar, structural changes in politics and policy are underway across advanced economies – with material economic consequences

Financing the capex boom: The ability to finance the great reindustrialisation will be a key driver of national economic performance: only some economies are positioned to benefit

Election risk ahead: Recent market volatility after elections illustrates the economic importance of political institutions; with implications for the US Presidential election

Trade as geopolitics: Trade flows capture changes in the geopolitical context: global economic fragmentation continues to sharpen, driven by geopolitical rivalry

The great reindustrialisation: Investment is strengthening across advanced economies for economic & geopolitical reasons, with effects from commodity prices to macro policy & productivity growth

Currency wars?: The strong USD is generating economic pressures around the world, with the potential for disruptive responses – reinforced by geopolitical rivalry

Global briefing: World trade/ Middle East/ Blinken in China/ Higher for longer/ Europe: Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

Is this time different?: A roaring 20s will require a much stronger economic recovery from Covid than from the global financial crisis. What are the chances?

Global briefing: Higher for longer/ Fault lines/ Excess capacity/ ASEAN/ Global economic fragmentation : Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

Escalating US fiscal risks: The UK 'Truss shock' provides insight into the growing risks of the unsustainable US fiscal path causing a global financial shock

Global briefing: Fragmentation/ World trade/ Military spending/ UK Labour/ Israel: Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

Geopolitical shocks and shifts: Beyond managing exposures to geopolitical shocks, firms, investors, and governments need to position for structural geopolitical shifts

Global briefing: Nowhere to hide/ Japan normalisation/ US debt & politics/ Gold & regime change/ Dutch exit: Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

China shakes the world: The spillovers from China’s growth model will create stresses across the global economy, with economic and geopolitical implications

Global briefing: Antipodean inflation/ Fracturing global institutions/Trump update/ Dr Copper/ Emerging markets: Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

Productivity, inflation, & geopolitics: Structural drivers of higher inflation will be offset by strengthening productivity growth, but with significant variation across economies

Global briefing: Chinese deflation/ Ukraine/ India rising/ Growth strengthening/ Secular stagnation: Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

Geopolitics & macro policy : History shows that big power geopolitical rivalry shapes fiscal and monetary policy: expect more expansive macro policy

Global briefing: Growth acceleration?/ Chinese freefall/ Rumours of war/ Populism/ AUKUS: Insights on five global developments that matter this week.

Entering a post-Covid world: Four years on from the arrival of the pandemic, 2024 may be the first post-Covid year in which economies are operating in a (new) normal environment

Global briefing: Taiwan status quo/ Inflation & rates/ Rewiring global flows/ China’s headwinds/ Trump & Europe: Insights on five global developments that matter this week.