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Paul

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Financial Educator
Value Investor

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Summary

Sector Small Cap
Content Type Commentary
Website Twitter
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This is exactly the point towards outperforming the market. Quality at any price investors might not want to hear that, but ONLY price matters in investing. I can't stop repeating myself, but the only way to beat the market over the long-term is by buying cheap, cheap, cheap.…

Folke Hermansen
I had no idea the relationship between PE and returns was so strong
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June 14, 2023, 9:08 a.m.

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This is exactly the point towards outperforming the market. Quality at any price investors might not want to hear that, but ONLY price matters in investing. I can't stop repeating myself, but the only way to beat the market over the long-term is by buying cheap, cheap, cheap.…

Folke Hermansen
I had no idea the relationship between PE and returns was so strong
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June 14, 2023, 9:03 a.m.

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Retweeted post by @Andrew Kuhn
Andrew Kuhn
A great fireside chat with Joel Greenblatt was recently released. He believes that certain aspects of today's market echo the dot-com boom/bust era when Gotham experienced losses in 1998-1999 but then was up over 115% in 2000.
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June 12, 2023, 6:21 p.m.

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Replying to @Simon Handrahan | MOS Capital

@MoS_Investing @Dont_Dilute You forgot a third one: Risk management. Selling shares without having an opportunity available can be risk management. Holding into a stock that’s expensive is bad risk management.

Simon Handrahan | MOS Capital
@Dont_Dilute there’s a difference between selling for a better use of those funds and “taking profits” which implies the only reason for selling is that it has performed well. sell decisions should be based on what you think the future brings for that business vs all the other opportunities.

June 8, 2023, 6:06 a.m.

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If someone has some merchandise of Enron, Solarworld, Lehman or other „great historical businesses“.

Mathias
We need some help! The Kapitalmarkthygienemuseum ( is a funny idea of collecting memorabilia to "emotional short" companies. Unfortunately it is very time consuming to write down those stories. We thought to crowd-source some story-writing.

June 3, 2023, 8:26 a.m.

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Retweeted post by @Mathias
Mathias
We need some help! The Kapitalmarkthygienemuseum ( is a funny idea of collecting memorabilia to "emotional short" companies. Unfortunately it is very time consuming to write down those stories. We thought to crowd-source some story-writing.

June 3, 2023, 7:52 a.m.

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Replying to @Long Equity

@long_equity @Josue46809943 @hurdle_rate I've read through your book. This is how I formed my opinion. I don't want to judge and not offend you, but there's not much depth. Maybe you kept it high level on purpose. What do I know.

Long Equity
@Investmentideen @Josue46809943 @hurdle_rate I've never said I don't spend a single thought on valuation. My priority is first growth, then ROC and then valuation. I of course accept that prioritising growth and ROC over valuation leads to a more expensive fund.

June 2, 2023, 9 a.m.

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Replying to @Long Equity

@long_equity @Josue46809943 @hurdle_rate These two factors, quality and valuation, are mutually influential. Valuation is positively affected by quality, which is evident through enhanced growth rates, stable profit margins, consistent cash flows, and improved predictability. It starts with valuation and ends with…

Long Equity
@Investmentideen @Josue46809943 @hurdle_rate I've never said I don't spend a single thought on valuation. My priority is first growth, then ROC and then valuation. I of course accept that prioritising growth and ROC over valuation leads to a more expensive fund.

June 2, 2023, 8:53 a.m.

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Replying to @Long Equity

@long_equity @hurdle_rate They are responsible for <5% (<8% including materials).

Long Equity
@hurdle_rate @Investmentideen That's right. The MSCI Quality index contains sectors that I personally wouldn't invest in and don't see as being quality sectors. For example, I would never own an energy, utilities or real estate company, yet they are included in the index.

June 2, 2023, 8:39 a.m.

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Replying to @Long Equity

@long_equity @hurdle_rate As Tristan mentioned, their shares trade at an avg. 5% yield vs your 2.7%. MSCI world Quality had a 11% CAGR. It's ok If that's what you aim for. I am sceptical about those returns. I assume they would have been much lower without low interest rates from 2008 to 2020.

Long Equity
@Investmentideen @hurdle_rate Not any price. My view is that a long term portfolio of high quality businesses will do well, and that business quality should be prioritised over valuation.

June 2, 2023, 8:37 a.m.

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The activist @starequityfund now pushing for a full liquidation of $SVT. I guess, this has 100%+ upside if fully liquidated. Disclosure: I’ve no shares

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June 1, 2023, 9:36 p.m.

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Feel encouraged to like ❤️ or retweet 🔁 the original tweet if you want more of the Q&A Format. If there are any other topics you would like me to address or if you have any disagreements, please feel free to send me a private message (PM) or leave a comment below. Content is…

June 1, 2023, 4:20 p.m.

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Please feel encouraged to like ❤️ or retweet 🔁 the original tweet if you desire more of the Q&A Format. If there are any other topics you would like me to address or if you have any disagreements, please feel free to send me a private message (PM) or leave a comment below. The…

June 1, 2023, 4:19 p.m.

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Common mistakes in Working Capital estimation and it's importance in valuation Part 2/2 On your point regarding “excluding working capital” are you saying to subtract changes in working capital or to just not include it in the calculation of owner earnings at all? if the former,…

June 1, 2023, 4:14 p.m.

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Common mistakes in Working Capital estimation and it's importance in valuation Part 2/2 On your point regarding “excluding working capital” are you saying to subtract changes in working capital or to just not include it in the calculation of owner earnings at all? if the former,…

June 1, 2023, 4:13 p.m.

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If you like that Q&A format and want me to continue, feel free liking (or RT) the initial tweet. Feel free to ask more questions and challenge my tweets if you disagree. Content is driven by your questions & comments.

🌱 Paul, not a CFA
Growth vs. Maintenance (Working Capital) Part 2/2 On your point regarding “excluding working capital” are you saying to subtract changes in working capital or to just not include it in the calculation of owner earnings at all? if the former, how do you go about determining the…

June 1, 2023, 4:08 p.m.

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Growth vs. Maintenance (Working Capital) Part 2/2 On your point regarding “excluding working capital” are you saying to subtract changes in working capital or to just not include it in the calculation of owner earnings at all? if the former, how do you go about determining the…

June 1, 2023, 4:07 p.m.

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So, Red Oak challenged the bylaws, wants to separate the role of the CEO and the chairman and nominated two new board members. $JOB GEE GROUP

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May 31, 2023, 7:07 a.m.

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Previous Tweet

🌱 Paul, not a CFA
Removing Working Capital from FCF calculations Why should a whole business also be adjusted by any movements in working capital? Isn’t it useful to take into account movements in working capital to observe cash flow generating capacity? “Cashflow > Earnings”? Let me explain why…

May 31, 2023, 6:57 a.m.

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If you like that Q&A format and want me to continue, feel free to support and let me know by liking (or RT) the initial tweet. Feel free to ask more questions and challenge my tweets if you disagree. Content is driven by your questions & comments.

May 31, 2023, 6:57 a.m.

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Picture of Paul

Growth vs. Maintenance (Working Capital) Part 1/2 On your point regarding “excluding working capital” are you saying to subtract changes in working capital or to just not include it in the calculation of owner earnings at all? if the former, how do you go about determining the…

May 31, 2023, 6:49 a.m.

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This was part 1 out of 2. I'll elaborate further on that question in a future tweet. If you like that Q&A format, feel free to let me know by liking (or RT) the initial tweet. I'll continue as long as that receives enough traction. Further, feel free to ask more…

May 31, 2023, 4:55 a.m.

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Growth vs. Maintenance (Working Capital) On your point regarding “excluding working capital” are you saying to subtract changes in working capital or to just not include it in the calculation of owner earnings at all? if the former, how do you go about determining the…

Tweet image

May 31, 2023, 4:50 a.m.

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Retweeted post by @🌱 Paul, not a CFA
🌱 Paul, not a CFA
Removing Working Capital from FCF calculations Why should a whole business also be adjusted by any movements in working capital? Isn’t it useful to take into account movements in working capital to observe cash flow generating capacity? “Cashflow > Earnings”? Let me explain why…

May 30, 2023, 7:48 p.m.

No Paywall
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Replying to @Irnest Kaplan

@IrnestKaplan Thanks Irnest! Appreciate that you like it. I guess, it’s a very common mistake beginners make as many don’t understand free cash flow and working capital.

Irnest Kaplan
@Investmentideen Great write up Paul @Investmentideen I like your longer form tweets ! This reminds me of my thread a while back where I showed how some of the high growth SaaS companies were receiving a lot of cash upfront , so working cap was inflating their FCF

May 30, 2023, 7:43 p.m.

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