From The Wall Street Journal. The dispersion would be even greater were we to include a handful of tech names. #markets #investors #investing #stocks #tech #oil @wsj

This chart, from @johnauthers’ note (always a good read), illustrates well something that, per earlier tweets, has worried me and many others — the migration of inflationary pressures from a few items; and then the goods sector as a whole, to services. It is why history has…

Courtesy of @lisaabramowicz1, and ahead of today's conclusion of the #FederalReserve's policy meeting, the current market-implied path for the #Fed's policy rate. Bottom line: Over the course of this year, #markets have gradually migrated to more of a higher-for-longer rate…

Good morning. The big policy event today is, of course, the conclusion of the #FederalReserve’s policy meeting, the statement and the press conference that follows. Based on the #Fed’s policy guidance, #markets expect the central bank to “skip”–this is, not continue with interest…

More bad news for the #UK #mortgage market: Spooked by today’s #inflation-related data (please see this morning’s post), the 2-year #UK yield surged higher again as #markets anticipate a more hawkish @BankOfEngland. The transmission mechanism from such yield moves to household…

From the @FT. #markets #biotech #ipo #investing

Per this Bloomberg intraday chart for the US 2-year yield, the initial relief rally has dissipated as markets dissected the #inflation data release. Having said that, I still expect the #Fed to follow through on its guidance to “skip” tomorrow which, as I detailed in the…

Interesting to see the range of reactions of economists/analysts to the US CPI #inflation data. The optimists point to the moderation in service inflation. The pessimists worry about the persistence of core inflation at 5% whether measured by 3- and 6-month moving averages or the…

US #CPI #inflation is ... In line with consensus expectations for core; and slightly better for headline. With such numbers, it would be very hard for the Fed not to validate the last policy guidance of a "skip"--that is, keep rates unchanged tomorrow and keep the door open…

While on "second round effects, this is from the @Guardian's Larry Elliott on today's #UK data and possible implications for the @BankOfEngland. #economy #econtwitter #inflation #wages

The @WSJ on today's main data event, US #CPI #inflation. This comes ahead of tomorrow's #Fed policy announcement. The main focus will be on core inflation, including the impact of the "second round" effects associated with the migration of inflation drivers from a few items, and…

Happy Birthday to our wonderful pup, Bosa! 12 amazing years. Thanks for all the love, happiness and fun. We love you.

Looking forward to reading @EdConwaySky’s new book. #economy #econtwitter #commodities #naturalresources #growth

This comes ahead of tomorrow’s release of US CPI inflation for May. #economy #inflation #markets #econtwitter

On this week’s Fed policy meeting. #economy #markets #centralbanks #federalreserve @ft #econtwitter

From the @FT "big read" by @colbyLsmith: "The #Fed’s waiting game: is the US #economy finally starting to crack? Consensus is breaking down about the pace at which #inflation will moderate and just how close the economy is to a cliff edge." @econtwitter

A reminder from The @WSJ of the unusual nature of the current #FederalReserve rate hiking cycle. As the #Fed started this cycle late due to its misreading of #inflation, the US #economy is being subjected to the most concentrated set of hikes in some four decades. #growth…

On this week’s Fed policy meeting. #economy #markets #centralbanks #federalreserve @ft #econtwitter #fed

The currency in #Turkey is 1% weaker this morning, currently trading at 23.65 per US dollar. The recent moves in the #Lira suggest that the authorities have resumed a managed depreciation but at a higher daily pace. The big policy question now, especially with the appointment of…