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Jared Sleeper

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Sector Tech
Content Type Commentary
Website Twitter
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Retweeted post by @ibby
ibby
It's super hard to segment your customers for marketing purposes, but can be *incredibly* useful when done properly. We go through a few examples here:

June 8, 2023, 9:46 p.m.

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Picture of Jared Sleeper

Man, a quarterly conference call webcast solution with a highly accurate, live transcript that populates under the webcast would be a killer app. Has to be achievable with off-the-shelf technology at this point, right?

June 8, 2023, 9:46 p.m.

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Anyone have a good explanation for the surge of hiring at $YEXT? Almost looks like a mistake in the LinkedIn data (non-affiliated profiles getting counted somehow) but I can't quit lock it down. Headcount on LinkedIn up 22% in the past few months (!!).

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June 1, 2023, 7 p.m.

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@ShortSightedCap @quinwoodlncap @Beutty @SkeleCap I think there's a natural role of "leading financial center" and most of the other traits of NYC are correlated, probably causally. Singapore, London, HK all have lots of similarities (though two of them manage to be much cleaner...)

May 31, 2023, 8:29 p.m.

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Replying to @Shortsighted Capital

@ShortSightedCap @quinwoodlncap @Beutty @SkeleCap Maybe! But I'm not sure that's the right thought experiment. You can do most financial careers in LA, Chicago, etc. Won't be at the epicenter, but that's not a big deal- and in each case the cost of living/quality of life can arguably be much higher.

Shortsighted Capital
@JaredSleeper @quinwoodlncap @Beutty @SkeleCap For me, I'd take [City X] in a lot of cases. But it almost doesn't matter. Like I'll probably move back to NY. But overwhelmingly for career reasons, as opposed to anything I especially like about NY itself.

May 31, 2023, 8:28 p.m.

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Replying to @Shortsighted Capital

@ShortSightedCap @quinwoodlncap @Beutty @SkeleCap The main point is that everyone has different utility curves, and I think for many NYC is a great place to be. Otherwise, it wouldn't be so expensive. :) Implicitly, this factors in the increase in serendipity proximity provides. Friends passing through, random invites, etc.

Shortsighted Capital
@quinwoodlncap @Beutty @JaredSleeper @SkeleCap Also depends whether you actually intend to take advantage of those assets in NYC. A lot of people don't. Or only do so infrequently they'd be better served by an occaisional trip. City can still make sense for them (human capital development). But it's not for the amenities

May 31, 2023, 7:52 p.m.

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Replying to @Quinwood Lane Capital

@quinwoodlncap @Beutty @ShortSightedCap @SkeleCap Probably just as interesting, but more tradeoffs on the other side. :)

Quinwood Lane Capital
@Beutty @JaredSleeper @ShortSightedCap @SkeleCap Another dividing line is kids. 1am comedy cellar surprises are less interesting once you have children

May 31, 2023, 7:41 p.m.

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Replying to @Shortsighted Capital

@ShortSightedCap @SkeleCap (!!) Density and centrality create: * Subcultures that don't exist at scale elsewhere * The best public transit in the US * Regular magical moments (e.g. 1am Comedy Cellar surprises) * Unending entertainment Not surprising at all that many prefer it to the alternatives.

Shortsighted Capital
@SkeleCap I would estimate >50% of the people in the greater NY area are only there because that's where work is. For most people, all the talk about "culture" and "diversity" is a way to rationalize the rather low standard of living.

May 31, 2023, 7:20 p.m.

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Maybe my favorite ChatGPT use case yet. A friend is flirting with a French man who said “let me be evasive” out of the blue, which confused her. To help, I asked GPT-4 what he might have meant. The response seems to absolutely nail the language nuance. Incredible.

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May 26, 2023, 8:14 p.m.

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It's amazing to me that immigration isn't framed in nationalistic terms. Birthrates are declining in all countries, globally. The fact that millions of people per year want to move here can be America's secret demographic weapon. It's ours to lose.

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May 17, 2023, 8:44 p.m.

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This chart demonstrates how far we have yet to go in teaching the basics of data visualization... yikes

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May 16, 2023, 6:27 p.m.

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Replying to @MrRatable

@MRatable Not necessarily if the new contract had different payment terms and so wasn't billed in Q1.

MrRatable
If Coinbase renegotiating was a $65m headwind for DDOG, then doesn’t it mean the contract was significantly bigger than $65m originally?

May 11, 2023, 8:30 p.m.

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Subway ridership in NYC as a % of the comparable pre-pandemic day. The next few months will be important but an uptrend still seems to be intact. BART ridership is regularly below 40% of the pre-pandemic baseline, for comparison.

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May 8, 2023, 7:44 p.m.

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Replying to @Elliot

@AlphaSeeker84 That's why I think it is best to think of SaaS companies on multiples of some sort of terminal margin. Then you can use revenue growth as the driver of the multiple without worrying about base effects. On their nums, trading ~31x CY25 and growing 30%+. Still ties out, imo

Elliot
@JaredSleeper That's fair but a part of that is inflection of operating leverage as FCF margin goes from 25% to 30%. According to their model they are exiting the year at ~33% topline growth and incremental op leverage will be harder to come by so 50x just doesn't leave much room for error

May 8, 2023, 5:33 p.m.

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Replying to @Elliot

@AlphaSeeker84 They model for 63% FCF growth CY25/CY24. Not saying the model is correct and one could nit pick it other ways, but that's not a crazy multiple at that growth rate.

Elliot
Best part of the $SNOW upgrade

May 8, 2023, 5:15 p.m.

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SaaS cos that have added headcount this year (ranked by growth): $SNOW $S $AI $DDOG $TOST $NET $WDAY $NOW $NEWR $ZS $OLO $FROG $ASAN $DBX $AMPL $PCTY $TENB $FIVN $CWAN $CRWD $CFLT $SHOP $SUMO $MNDY All others shrinking. Also, 7 of the names above stopped growing by March.

April 28, 2023, 5:52 p.m.

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Moving from low-touch, bottoms-up selling motions to top-down enterprise sales is hard and very prone to over-optimistic spreadsheet math. See: TWLO.

Arda
Moving slightly in the wrong direction

April 27, 2023, 9:48 p.m.

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Well, it's official. Total headcount for the Bessemer Cloud Index has rolled over and was down by 2500+ heads in March and by another 5000+ in April. Both probably underestimates. If anything close to this pace is maintained, SaaS headcount will be down Y/y by June.

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April 27, 2023, 9:46 p.m.

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$NOW work life balance on a clear uptrend since Slootman left. 👀

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April 18, 2023, 3:19 p.m.

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Replying to @MrRatable

@MRatable 🙏👌

MrRatable
The view that we’ve already priced in margin expansion in software is wrong. You’ll see companies start beating their margin targets by just as much as they used to beat topline targets if they need to

April 18, 2023, 2:32 p.m.

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The four commandments of naming a startup: 1. Benign SEO competition 2. Easy to spell after you hear it spoken 3. Memorable 4. Easy to pronounce when you see it written "Datadog" and "Shopify" are both 👌.

April 18, 2023, 11:15 a.m.

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Retweeted post by @Ethan Mollick
Ethan Mollick
The wisdom of the crowd works even if the crowd is totally drunk. This study got undergrads intoxicated & found that while drunk individuals make a lot more errors, the consensus of groups of drunk people was as accurate as that of groups of sober people.
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April 17, 2023, 8:02 p.m.

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I know a founder who was hounded by wealth managers after exiting. He ended up paying a guy 1% per year to "manage" an 8-figure portfolio of mutual funds charging 1-2% annual fees, each with a ~5% upfront fee that went to the "Wealth Manager" as a kickback. Legalized theft.

Gabriel Tamez
My girlfriend's dad is a doctor and has a good part of his retirement with a wealth manager in Florida. I looked at his holdings today: 17 different fixed income and equity mutual funds w/ avg. expense ratio of 1.7% Some w/ entry fees as high as 5% This shit drives me nuts.

April 17, 2023, 1:41 p.m.

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Picture of Jared Sleeper

4/ Confluent- Middleware generally seems like a winner, but one bottleneck to streaming data utility is the fundamental slowness of humans- for many use cases batch processing is enough for us. AI agents won't be so encumbered.

April 10, 2023, 1:50 p.m.

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Picture of Jared Sleeper

5/ ZoomInfo- A unique and hard-to-replicate dataset and we're all going to be getting very personalized/unique to us emails/phone calls, etc. in the near future. Hard to imagine ZoomInfo doesn't manage to benefit from being the system of record for contact data.

April 10, 2023, 1:50 p.m.

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