Turning the Page

Choose Your Battles

Payrolls Preview: Remain Calm

Beware January Reversals

2024 In Review: Quadrilemma

2025 Themes: The Bill Comes Due

The Trump Treasuries Trade

2025 Outlook: Targeting a Trifecta

A Whole of Government Approach

Three Arrows

Three Arrows

Our Dollar, Everyone's Problem

The Threat to Bureaucracy

Bund Dot Com

October Employment Preview

Eight (or Nine) Crazy Days

The Trump Trade

Return of the Bond Vigilantes

Return of the Bond Vigilantes: Resetting '25 Rate Cut Expectations, Political Calculus, Disinflation Deceleration, TCJA Research

Productivity Boom: Cyclical or Secular?: Peak Interventionism, Payroll Shocker, Productivity Boom, Reducing Intermediate Treasuries

Jobs Friday: On the Edge of Our Chair: Fed Reaction Function, Forget Openings, Demand and Churn Point to Rapidly Cooling Wage Growth, Bad is not as Bad for Stocks, at Least Until Earnings Begin

Global Stimulus Boom: Global Stimulus, China's Big Dig, Revisionism Revisited, GDI & Productivity, Putting Some Cash to Work Overseas

Long Policy Lags: Recalibration or Recession, Long and Variable Lags, Policy Efficacy, 3 E's Outlook Remains Negative

Under Promising: Pre-pandemic inflation trends on steroids, FOMC preview, No debating excessive spending, Party like it's 1995 but not you banks

Sustainable Disinversion: Equities want 50, Crumbling Labor Market Foundation, Sustainable Disinversion, Recalibration Reconciliation