Idea Overviews - Tickers and Thoughts: As promised, it’s late June (very late) and I have a weekend to go through some tickers I’ve been sent as well as some I’ve personally come across. The goal if this article is to be a shorter little primer on things, both to spread awareness to potentially interested readers, as well as make myself take a look at more ideas.
July 1, 2024, 2:48 p.m.
Q2 Earnings Forecasts - This time with KPI's: Hi all, will keep it short and sweet. As previously mentioned the Q1 2024 earnings forecast with Clarity was quite successful, averaging a 3.5% difference from actual results vs 4.7% for sell side. After some website updates and the like, looking to try that experiment again for Q2, but with a slight twist.
June 25, 2024, 6:09 p.m.
$CDLX - Getting Technical with Chase and AmEx: Another article on Clarity soon post NVDA, travelling so likely end of the week. For now we can get a bit in the weeds with tech at CDLX and the game theory underpinning that thesis. I’ll likely also be on a podcast sometime soonish discussing CDLX. I think it’s attractive, misunderstood, blah blah heard it before. Stay tuned though!
May 24, 2024, 10:58 p.m.
$CDLX Q1 Results and The Question: If you’ve been following the CDLX story for >2 quarters this is the 2nd 40% drawdown you’ve seen, which while not particularly fun, isn’t particularly surprising. A natural consequence of investing into opaque small caps with leverage and no near term earnings is that the entirety of the value is in the future and it’s hard to tell the future even for insiders. We’re selling 30-45 day niche ad campaigns at subscale budgets, not providing mission critical goods
May 11, 2024, 4:42 a.m.
Quick $CVNA Warmup: Keeping it short and sweet since this story is rather boring now (in terms of business trajectory, not necessarily stock attractiveness). CVNA is a pretty simple story to understand. 2017-2021 were phenomenal with growth and economics headed in the right direction. 2022 saw mini economic crash relative to the covid stimulus highs mixed with some unfortunate timing with a large debt funded purchase. Rather easy to argue they got a bit gung-ho after winning on repeat for a few
May 1, 2024, 2:55 p.m.
$CDLX - Where we're at and hopefully going: Been a minute since a CDLX article and there are some worthwhile updates to cover. I’ve done so on Twitter to a decent extent documenting my thoughts, but I’ll condense it here and expand a touch as well. This won’t be super long for reasons we’ll get to shortly, but hope it helps. Cheers
April 23, 2024, 7:45 p.m.
$CVNA Pre-Earnings Outlook: Hi friends, we’ll keep this one short and focus on highlighting some important KPI’s and such ahead of CVNA earnings tomorrow. I remain generally bullish on the stock and it continues to be a top position ahead of earnings. Q4 Results: For Q4 there was nothing particularly special happening at CVNA. Q4 is seasonally the weakest quarter due to consumer spending focusing on Black Friday and Christmas as well as Halloween. The numerous holidays also depress sales, which
Feb. 21, 2024, 9:40 p.m.
$CVNA and the death of $VRM: It’s been rather slow lately on the news front despite the rather high volatility in stock prices. It seems like the market has collectively held their breath as we relentlessly debate where rates go in the near, medium, and long term. Given the default assumption for nearly a decade was simply “rates will be flat or lower” it’s curious how now it’s a topic of such contention. I mention this not in an effort to sound smart relative to other finance professionals, but
Feb. 7, 2024, 11:38 p.m.
Alpha, Excellence, and Video Games?: The title does indeed say video games. Figured I’d start the new year off right with some weirdness. Hopefully the article below is at least vaguely interesting and justifies very serious finance professionals reading an article referring to the activities their kids are likely enjoying currently while off from school. Anyways, on to the article with a brief subscription plug if you’re so inclined (premium entirely optional)
Jan. 6, 2024, 4:52 p.m.
