SoFi Q4 Earnings Preview: Time to Take the Gloves Off

KBW's SoFi Analysis Is Historically Dead Wrong

SoFi: Shifting into Second Gear

A Deep Dive into SoFi's Loan Platform Business

SoFi Q3 Earnings Review - Onward and Upward

DDI Earnings Prediction: SoFi Q3 Earnings – It's All About the Momentum

Why This Time Really is Different for SoFi Stock

What Do Rate Cuts Do for SoFi?: The Fed just cut rates by 50 basis points and the median projection is another 25 bps in the next two meetings, for a full 1% cut before the end of the year.

Duolingo: The British Cycling Team of SaaS: The Aggregation of Marginal Gains

SoFi Q2 Earnings Review Part 2: That Is How You Control the Story: My two biggest questions going into earnings were:

SoFi Q2 Earnings Review Part 1: The Results: SoFi beat all analyst expectations across the board and their own guidance on their Q2 earnings, as is tradition.

Q2 Earnings Preview: It's Time for SoFi to Control the Story: I usually spend most of the time if my earnings previews diving deep into my predictions, why I think that way, and throwing up lots of data and graphics to explain my thoughts.

SoUndervalued: Part 2, Fintech multiples: If you haven’t read part 1, I suggest you start there. It gives some background on how I think about valuation, why I don’t think tangible book value is the right metric for SoFi, and results of a few different discounted cash flow models, I’m going to quickly list the guiding principles I have for valuation again here because they’ll be important for the discussion below:

SoUndervalued: Part 1, Bottom Up Valuation and Book Value: Valuation, like everything else in investing, is only useful with the proper nuance and context. There is no single number that tells the whole story for any company. That being said, I think it would be wise for me to start this article by talking generally about how I look at valuing investments. The guiding principles for me are as follows:

This is How SoFi Beats the Bears: One of my favorite scenes from the Dark Knight trilogy is where Coleman Reese, a Wayne Enterprises employee, confronts Lucius Fox (one of Batman’s right-hand men along with Alfred) after discovering that Bruce Wayne is Batman. He lays out clear evidence of what he has found before telling Lucius, “I want ten million dollars, a year, for the rest of my life”. Fox’s answer is brilliant.

SoFi: Going from 0 to 60 (cents of EPS): SoFi stock has been really weak even as the S&P 500 and other indexes see all-time highs. Sentiment in the investor community is absolutely near all-time lows. Sentiment follows price and the price action has not been good. I don’t really care about any of that because I see a business that has outperformed every competitor and is fundamentally getting stronger with each passing quarter. Hopefully this article can help people take a step back and see the

Final thoughts from SoFi Q1 Earnings: Just a few more tidbits that I found interesting or enlightening from the recent SoFi earnings report. Financial Services Revenue and Margins Cross sell has not been as strong as I’d hoped it would be. In fact, it is actually getting slightly worse. Total products per member since before they went public is shown below. One partial explanation is that they were forced to exit their crypto offerings, which certainly had a detrimental effect on the number of S

Additional Insights from SoFi Q1 Earnings: As I have continued to review the SoFi Q1 earnings, here are some of the more interesting things I’ve noticed that I thought it would be interesting to share. Stock-Based Compensation I’ve been in SoFi long enough that I was around when stock-based compensation (SBC) was one of the biggest bear cases against the company. In fact, the very first ever call I had with anyone inside of SoFi was with CFO Chris Lapointe about this very subject. Partially lost

Ok, What the Heck is Sofi Doing in 2024? (SoFi for Dummies): Written by Timothy Sweeney

SoFi Q1 2024 Earnings Review: A Good Quarter but a Few Questions Remain: I said this quarter was going to be the hardest one to predict so far. It was also, in my opinion, one of the more underwhelming quarters that SoFi has had, but that is only because they have set a very high standard. Last year’s earnings reports were excellent across the board, and Q2 and Q3 were especially exceptional. Q1 of 2024 was a good quarter, but there were several aspects of it that are kind of “meh”. I’ll go back

DDI Earnings Prediction: SoFi Q1 2024 Earnings: Earnings is a week away. It’s prediction time, let’s get to it. Members Last quarter saw 585k new members added, the second highest total ever. It appears that there was a step change in 2Q last year where 500k+ new members has become the new normal. The trend for the past two years has been that Q1 numbers are lower than Q4 numbers. Website traffic data is up, and the NBA partnership kicked off during Q1, which should add some unaided brand awaren

It's DDI's One Year Anniversary: My very first DDI article about how SoFi is seeking to build the AWS of Fintech was published one year ago today. To celebrate the anniversary, I wanted to show some statistics about the newsletter and how it and my Twitter/X account have grown over time.

SoFi Convertible Notes: the Good, the Bad, and the Stock Price Reaction: Recently, SoFi engaged in two separate transactions that they announced at the exact same time. Both of them were regarding senior convertible notes. This was a complicated transaction and there are both positives and negatives. I’ll do my best to lay out the facts of the transactions, and then give commentary on what is good and bad about each part. Also, the deal changed several times due stock price movement and other th

Understanding SoFi's Long-term Debt: I’m still working on my article about the convertible notes and debt buyback deal. In the meantime, I still want to push out useful analysis. Debt is another part of SoFi’s business that is often misunderstood. This article should demystify why SoFi appears to have such high debt.

SoFi's negative Free Cash Flow and why they use Bulls**t Earnings: The late Charlie Munger, one of the greatest investors of all time, famously said during the 2003 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, "Every time you [see] EBITDA just substitute the phrase bulls**t earnings". He expounded even further in 2020 saying, "Think of the basic intellectual dishonesty that comes when you start talking about adjusted EBITDA. You're almost announcing you're a flake."