Chillin: Mostly my blog is a way for me to follow my curiosities by studying interesting events, companies and investments from the past. I thought I’d experiment with writing about a live situation instead of doing that. This isn’t meant in any way to be a recommendation of what to buy but rather a way for me to record what I think, share some thoughts on investing and come back to it in 3 to 5 years and see how it played out.
March 3, 2023, 9:32 p.m.
What Is Buffett Up To?: There’s been a lot of speculation on the underlying reasons behind Buffett’s insanely aggressive continued purchases of OXY. SaaS-bois are out here doing FCF multiples on oil companies. Some investors are talking about how the speed of the EV and renewables transition is being overestimated and Buffett is just being a classic value investor. Then there’s ESG, labor shortage, capital cycles…
July 10, 2022, 8:51 a.m.
Profile of The Coca-Cola Company - 1997: The Coca-Cola Company capped off another very successful year in 1997 of 9% unit case volume growth and a 19% increase in EPS. Entering 1998, Coke had incredible 10 year CAGRs in revenue of 9.4% and EPS of 18.5%. The Coca-Cola Phenomenon: “Coke” was the second-best known word in the world after OK. There had never been a single product with such global appeal that could be found in remotest of villages in far flung corners of every continent. Mexico’s ver
June 30, 2022, 8:18 a.m.
Home Depot: Breaking Down the 2000-2005 US Housing Boom Experience: After some very strong YTD earnings from some of my favourite housing related companies , US housing was foremost in my mind and I got curious about what these stocks were like in the 2000-2005 US housing boom. These were the returns on some top notch housing companies from investing $1 into each one on 2001/03/01 (i.e. after FY2000 earnings and 2001 guidance #s were out) until the end of 2005:
Aug. 17, 2021, 3:32 a.m.
Post-Mortems, Part 1: With this blog, I'm trying to really sink my teeth into the whole "all I want to know is where I'm going to die so I never go there" idea promulgated by Munger. Investing in public equities has been such a favourable endeavor historically, that as long as you can cut down on mistakes and survive, you'll do extremely well.
Dec. 7, 2020, 10:27 p.m.
What Happened at GE?: GE’s stock peaked at $60 in 2000 and currently trades at 10%-15% of that value 20 years later. This is a study in the “tell me where I’m going to die so I never go there” category. As an investor who has pretty strictly tried to focus on “quality” companies, I wanted to learn how a business with seemingly pretty competitively advantaged industrial businesses managed to destroy so much shareholder wealth, so that I can avoid situations like it in the future.
Oct. 19, 2020, 1:23 a.m.
McDonald's - Crisis and Turnaround of 2002-2003: Ted Weschler’s record while running his fund (Peninsula Capital) for the 11 years from 2000 to 2011 is epic. He generated 26% CAGR, turning a $1M investment into ~$13M in just over a decade. When he got hired @ BRK, I pretty obsessively went through all of his old 13Fs and tried to reverse engineer his rationales for the investments he made at the time he made them. I read the old 10Ks and news articles of the firms he invested in to try to learn
July 19, 2020, 8:38 p.m.
NVR: A Great Company, But Don’t Ignore the Stock Comp: NVR is a high quality company that investors really like. Unlike most homebuilders, the company has no net debt. And despite being a homebuilder, the company has tremendous returns on capital due to its well known capital-light land option strategy and because mgmt runs a tight ship.
June 7, 2020, 10:19 p.m.
