Buying on that issue has almost matched the index from that investment but the first 4 years likely makes it almost certain all of those shares were sold by their original owners. Without multiple compression price is ~C$1400 and the cumulative return is well over 100%.

I have used the opportunity to add more as they keep making what for now seem like brilliant moves. Investors thought the hedges through 2016 were brilliant too allowing $FFH.TO to raise equity at 1.3x BV. I’m not sure what’s in the books now that investors will hate tomorrow.

The price action makes sense seeing how institutional flows are usually VWAP weighted so they don’t overpower price sensitive supply/demand i.e. active retail investors. I think it’s evidence the chase is on but it could could churn for months.

I thought when $FFH.TO hit a $1000 it could grab enough momentum investors to run higher. I didn’t think about how many shareholders would celebrate $1000 by taking profit. Volume really spiked but in the context of float and human behaviour it was predictable. I just missed it.

Trying to predict price near term is really tough so I don’t do it with any conviction. I attempt to dissect trading activity and come up with a narrative to explain the action as it may give clues so I can make slightly less unreliable predictions.

Gold investors can’t even afford to bowl

I forgot to post the consensus i.e. the official over/under

I guess this is one way to devalue the Dollar and $DXY currencies. I would think if this becomes reality, Gold and EM currencies would benefit. It’s part of the reason I own long term options like $MKO.V (gold) and $LVRO (BRL). Option-sized is probably the right sizing too.

The official over/under is ~US$31/share on average so Cormark is quite bullish by comparison. Fenwick is a great analyst so I’m glad to have his company.

Cormark increased its price target on $FFH.TO this morning from C$1150 to C$1400 based on 1x 24YE BV of ~US$1050. That’s average EPS of ~US$35 for each the next 7 quarters. I would take the over on that but low expectations are often helpful for stock market outperformance.

$FISH.V traded a lot on Friday and @AkibaLeisman was a decent sized buyer picking up 111k shares.

Another way to say this is that many professional and non professional investors think the market is efficient. It shouldn’t be surprising since that is what is taught in schools.

Huge for $LVRO if BRL keeps rallying. It’s effectively a bet on ag exports in Brazil continuing to rise as they help farmers increase productivity. Ideally, some growth investors find it and give it a low cost of capital so the roll up strategy is that much more accretive.

Not much in the way of buybacks from $FFH.TO in May while $FIH.U bought over 1% of the float back. I thought maybe the Ambridge proceeds received last May would be used for buybacks but maybe that capital is funding the $KW “preferred” investment.

Anyone want to run the numbers for $FFH.TO?

Probably good that he lost the title. Prem is the Canadian Prem Watsa

An unpopular opinion but I think this war is about ending US hegemony and until the USD weakens considerably against gold and other global currencies not in the DXY, it probably continues.

When I was a desk analyst ~20 years ago, the math would have been, this is accretive by at ~US$4/share and $FFH.TO is trading at about ~5x earnings so it should be up at least ~US$20/share. And we probably would get an order but I don’t think PMs trade like that anymore.

A bigger deal in the financials especially when considering relative market cap sizes.

The big bid on $FIH.U moved up to $13 from $12.75. Weird way to trade it but really begging any large seller to hit the bid.

YTD top contributors to S&P/TSX composite returns features $FFH.TO in 6th place. Every month, it’s going to hurt to be underweight.

Although Eric wrote the article earlier in the week on Mytilineos so I guess he knew Fairfax had some Greek exposure. Maybe there is a part 2 planned.🤞🏽

Constructive article about Greece on the front cover of this weekend’s Report on Business section in the Globe & Mail. Basically Canada’s Barron’s. I was surprised $FFH.TO wasn’t mentioned but maybe their US$125/sh+ in Greek equity (mostly Eurobank) are under the radar.

I’m not smart enough to opine on climate change but we know the climate does change so why not focus on adaptation (infrastructure) instead of sacrificing standard of living when we can’t know if we’ll be successful in stopping it even if we get to “carbon-neutral” or beyond.