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Someone recently asked me which one is my favorite Deep Dive so far. It is Sherwin Williams.
I have just taken $SHW off the paywall (originally published in December 2022)
9. Visa ($V)
Visa is a quality business with a wide moat and great profitability margins. When you invest in Visa, you invest in a strong secular trend.
- FCF Margin: 61.0%
- ROIC: 28.2%
- FCF Yield: 3.7%
- Exp. FCF Growth (3 yr): 15.7%
- Decline # Shares since 2010: 43.4%
"we're a network. We provide a platform upon which different folks can come and compete and may the best idea win. It's not our job to pick winners and losers" $V
One of the best interviews I read.
Former Global Head at $GOOGL /GCP who worked there for 7 years:
- $GOOGL's edge on AI
- Talks about CEO of GCP: T.K - 60% of the time on customer-facing calls
- Transition from SMB clients to enterprises
- Thinks $MSFT Azure will be num. 1
@PythiaR A few points. Power portfolio, impossible to recreate. L'Oreal Luxe margin 23% (well above 20% after HQ), always goal given far higher skincare at $EL. Premium beauty +7-8% with oligopolistic Top 3 growing faster. Shipping zero into Asia duty free due to inventory.
2019 sales of $15b grow them 6% to 2024 (~midrange of $EL lt guide) and take off 8%-10% for FX. Add in $1b of Tom Ford revenue and $550m of Deciem revenue and you’re around $20b in revenue, 16% normalized op mgn, 25% tax gets you around $6.20 in earnings, still a 30x multiple.
@rebrandTBD it isn't a dollar store. hasn't been a dollar store.
price per unit has been a ripoff forever. that is not and has never been the point.
you have $12 left. 2 days to payday. you need XYZ. WMT is too far away, gas is $4/gal anyway.
DG it is!
Home Depot is one of the iconic American businesses.
@ReustleMatt and @IntrinsicInv explore the company in detail
One interesting stat: in 2008, there were 2,300 stores. Same # today. But during that period, the stock has 10x-ed.
Enjoy!
Home Depot is a great long-term compounder
In the past decade, it has grown Net Sales at a CAGR of 7.7% and EBIT at CAGR of 12.0%. Even including the pre-2008 housing bubble, the CAGRs were 4.3% and 5.9%
More from our FREE initiation article on $HD here
"We to date spend about 73% of our technology and operations spend on maintenance... we want to lower that to 60%. So we can take that additional 13% and allocate it into investment in growth, investment in R&D" $SPGI
Rob Knight's mic drop after 15+ years as CFO of Union Pacific: since 2004, OR -25ppts leading to ROIC +10ppts, in turn generating 19% annualized TSR vs. SPX +9%; "truly a remarkable achievement" $UNP
Fairly safe $unp assumptions over the next 5-7 years:
7-9% eps growth
2.7% dividend yield
Will trade in the 18-20x eps range once or twice if you’d like to sell
1. Meta reveals their custom AI chip
Meta revealed plans to create its custom chip, the Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA), specifically designed for running AI models.
Mita promises more computing power and efficiency than standard CPUs.
‘Many factors influence a company’s financial results, but the most important ingredient for Watsco’s success is our unique culture. Often underestimated, culture is a powerful driver of performance and results.’ Watsco 2022 Annual Report
4 years ago $DIS paid a $1.75 dividend and had operating margins of 25%.
Today $DIS has:
No dividend
Operating Margins of 7%.
LT Debt 3X
S/O up +300 Million
Net Income cut in half
Stock price -40% since then.
Bob Iger has a lot of work to do.
Ecolab $ECL CEO just now on the Q1 conference call:
"So we will be fighting a slowdown of the global economy. I don't know whether that's exactly going to go, obviously, but it's not going to accelerate that. I'm pretty sure about. So we will have to drive volume."
This idea of…
Retweeted post by @Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research)
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research)
Peter Keefe on $AMT: "I'll tell you the story of how values, integrity, and honesty made the difference, because you don't know until a company, person, or institution is under fire... We had ridden $AMT from the high teens to the mid-$40's, all the way back down to under $1."
Had a vision today of $AMZN at some point in the next 1-2 years with retail driving operating leverage and showing a bunch of EBIT at the same time that AWS reaccelerates and literally every hedge fund and quality LO on earth tripping over themselves to buy it.