I think its becoming painfully obvious that the CPI number produced by the BLS is overstating the current inflation run-rate because of OER & laggy data. Maybe JPow knows this...

Truflation at 2.54%!

Lower than expected PPI for May - leading indicator of future CPI? Dare we say "goldilocks"?

@wabuffoz has been squished. Y’all are the best for helping out

Anyone else notice that reverse repo volumes have been falling since the SVB failure?

lolz

I thought TGA refill was supposed to drain liquidity?

Core CPI x: OER came in at 4.1% - but is in decline too. Perhaps we see a 3-handle next month.

Maybe truflation is already on to it.

Needless to say - not a fan of OER as a good measure of anything related to housing.

May CPI (if one eliminates OER) came in at 2.7%. OER makes up over 25% of CPI & is running at 8% y-o-y.

$GTXAP - conversion of the preferred into $GTX common shares is complete this morning. This wraps up Garrett Motion's recapitalization/simplification of its balance sheet. In addition, accrued dividends to be paid in the form of cash & $GTX common stock

Last brick falls in the inflation story…rents going to fall for only second time since 2008.

Imposter alert! @wabuffoz is pretending to be me. Accept no substitutes! Please report & help me squish this bug!

S&P makes a new 52-week high.

I'll update this chart in June - but here is TTM deficit to GDP ratio using the TGA method. I estimate we are currently at 5.4% of GDP thru May. FWIW, I think 3-6% is "green" & a healthy level of deficit spending. Above or below that is problematic, IMHO.

I focus on deficit inflows/outflows into/out of TGA (except for debt issuance/redemption) b/c that's what counts in terms of the creation of net private sector financial assets. (i.e - the creation of reserves/deposits from net spending)

The as reported numbers include non-TGA adjustments. In Sept 22, there was an "expense" for student loan forgiveness (see "by other means") That wasn't an outflow from TGA. It was a "non-cash" writedown. Overstates deficit now, understated deficit when loans were issued.

With today's US Tsy monthly stmt, there might be reports that the deficit has exceeded $2.1t over the last year & is at almost 8% of GDP! The right way to look at it is using TGA method (ie - what actually is net spending from the TGA). It's actually $1.48t & 5.4% of GDP.

US deficit comes in at $240b for the month of May (its actually a bit bigger than that). Nonetheless....bullish! Hard to see a slowdown in the US economy with healthy fiscal stimulus of this magnitude as % of GDP.

@Mayhem4Markets @TraderadeTweets No adjustments for 30-year Tsy yields (proxy for discount rate) & lower recent Federal corporate tax rates? Dotcom: 6% 30-yr & 35% corp tax rate Today 4% & 21% What's a $1 pre-tax worth today vs in Dotcom?

@BobEUnlimited @SethCL Can't disagree Bob. I'm just not a fan of "velocity" measures. For example, since Fedwire is run with settlement balances to clear payments (ie, reserves) - here is a chart of the velocity of bank reserves. lol - its kind of GIGO chart, IMHO.

Huge if true... not sure if I believe it.

Endorse this take.

@Mayhem4Markets @BudFox_Trades I think folks overcomplicate macro especially as it relates to the monetary plumbing. It’s actually pretty simple if one focuses on basic concepts that carry almost all the freight.