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8.0
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Muskoka Capital

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$AND.TO CEO is the new owner of the Sens interesting! @FairwayResearch

Ottawa Senators
News Release: Senators Sports & Entertainment announces that Michael Andlauer has entered into an agreement to purchase the Ottawa Senators Hockey Club:
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June 13, 2023, 5:19 p.m.

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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia announced they will report 4th quarter earnings on May 2nd. Full year results + 2024 guide.

April 19, 2023, 3:21 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO $ATZ Expect an IR release next week announcing Q4 ER, probably scheduled for around May 11th. We will also get a full year guide for fiscal 2024 and an update on inventory.

April 14, 2023, 4:22 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Aritzia launched their Wilfred summer collection 2 days ago. $148 Pants, $188 dress almost fully sold through. They know exactly what their customer is looking for.

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April 14, 2023, 2:34 p.m.

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Aritzia actually used to carry Nike back in the day. I assume they phased this out as TNA competes directly. They don't have any footwear offerings yet, so carrying exclusive stuff like the New Balance 550's is a win. Majority of product will always be in-house brands.

April 4, 2023, 4:49 p.m.

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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Hearing from a friend Aritzia will be carrying some New Era caps in store (Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers etc.) Aritzia has the target market a lot of brands are in search of. Select strategic partnerships will bode well for them. New Balance, Adidas, etc.

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April 4, 2023, 4:41 p.m.

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$LULU is interesting. I could think of 10 reasons why growth should plateau and another 10 for why growth will keep ripping. No position, but fun story to watch play out as an $ATZ.TO shareholder.

March 28, 2023, 10:37 p.m.

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Replying to @Supreme Bagholder

@FbBagholder Videos from the hearing are all over TikTok, the entire community seems to be rallying behind him. One thing is for sure, the users love this app and will fight tooth and nail to keep it around.

Supreme Bagholder
Public perception of Shou is a lot more positive towards Shou than I first anticipated. I think we came out more confused after the hearing. But the general public doesn't care. They just want an alternative to Zuckerberg.

March 24, 2023, 11:23 p.m.

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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia is planning another US store. This time at Fashion Mall in Indianapolis.

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March 19, 2023, 2:52 p.m.

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$SPOT Has started rolling out the TikTok style feed for music discovery. This could be a game changer. Here is a sample of how it works. Second largest holding in my portfolio; up 55% YTD.

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March 17, 2023, 6:34 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO First look at the Aritzia Flagship store going up in Chicago. 46K Sqft on Magnificent Mile. Coming soon.

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March 15, 2023, 11:57 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Aritzia under $40. Like I thought, more opportunities are presenting themselves. Scooping some shares at a sub 4 billion market cap would be lovely.

Muskoka Capital
$ATZ.TO Increased my Aritzia position this morning. More opportunities may present themselves. No catalysts until Q4 earnings in May.

March 10, 2023, 6:22 p.m.

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Replying to @Stream by AlphaSense

@StreamRG @Jake___Barfield Is there any hard data on the 25% audience retention figure you put forth or are these just assumptions?

Stream by AlphaSense
"People hardly listen to linear radio anymore, yet it's producing $40B of ad revenue, almost 40 times more revenue than the podcasting industry, which is insane." Watch @Jake___Barfield of Asheville Capital discuss $SPOT and the questionable ROI of podcast deals in this week's…

March 10, 2023, 6:11 p.m.

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$MTN Vail Resorts earnings call recap - Lowered guidance due to poor weather conditions at Eastern resorts - Dividend increase of 8% - "Incredible momentum" at Whistler - Ancillary spend, advance commitment passes, gear rental all opportunities for future growth

March 9, 2023, 11:05 p.m.

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$ATZ $LULU As of todays close Aritzia is trading at about 2x 2022 sales. Lululemon is trading at about 4.8x 2022 sales.

March 8, 2023, 9:17 p.m.

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Having a US Dollar checking account at your Canadian bank is vital right now. $CAD $USD

March 8, 2023, 8:42 p.m.

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$SPOT Wants to consolidate things like music discovery, concerts, merch, socials. Spotify is integrating all of this for artists rather than having to drive fans from one platform to another. This is a fundamental shift in their business. Network effects could make this huge.

March 8, 2023, 7:09 p.m.

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$SPOT My second largest holding Spotify, introducing a ton of new features at the Stream On event. - Spotify Clips, TikTok like feature for short clips - New DJ feature powered by AI - Video for all podcasters - Concerts will be on home page / playlists

March 8, 2023, 7:01 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Increased my Aritzia position this morning. More opportunities may present themselves. No catalysts until Q4 earnings in May.

March 1, 2023, 3:29 p.m.

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$SNAP $META Interesting that $NFLX new hit documentary "Murdaugh Murders" was documented entirely by Snapchat videos. Company has many issues but can't deny the relevance with todays generation.

Feb. 28, 2023, 5:19 p.m.

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Replying to @Supreme Bagholder

@FbBagholder Saw that in Reddit too, not a fan of it either. Hopefully those designs are seasonal, although some stuff is selling through even with the giant logo.

Supreme Bagholder
@muskokainvestor The girlies are complaining a lot about the (R) addition to the logo.

Feb. 21, 2023, 6:45 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO All of the Fintwit Aritzia shareholders will be wearing these soon. I have to admit the Texas one is pretty sweet.

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Feb. 21, 2023, 5:34 p.m.

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$ABNB Great report by AirBnb, as I expected the increase in supply is driving revenue growth. While we hear anecdotal stories of hosts having lower demand, the higher supply is a net positive for the company.

Feb. 14, 2023, 9:24 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Aritzia search data tracking meaningfully higher in the US versus the previous 4th quarter. Fiscal Q ends Feb 28th.

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Feb. 9, 2023, 5:16 p.m.

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3/ Due to rapid growth and supply chain headwinds from 2022 nailing the correct amount of inventory has been a struggle for Aritzia. Easing of supply chain pressures + increased data on sales should lead them to be more efficient in the upcoming fiscal year.

Feb. 6, 2023, 5:45 p.m.

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2/ Note I am using popular items as management has commented that the inventory is highly skewed in client favourites. I believe the winter sale was ran longer than normal. Not due to demand but because of the warehouse stocking issues they talked about on the call.

Feb. 6, 2023, 5:43 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Aritzia seems to be working through the high inventory. Two of their best sellers — Mega Sweatpants currently only 2 of 28 colours available in a medium, rest on backorder or sold out. Original Super Puff has 27 of 42 colours sold out in a medium.

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Feb. 6, 2023, 5:37 p.m.

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The portfolio is just looking lovely today.

Feb. 1, 2023, 8:50 p.m.

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Retweeted post by @Fairway Research
Fairway Research
Happy to share my deep dive on Aritzia $ATZ.TO $ATZ. It goes into the history, brand, financial performance, management evaluation and intrinsic valuation. The full PDF report is available in the substack post. Happy reading!

Jan. 30, 2023, 10:42 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Whistler weekend.

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Jan. 29, 2023, 2:37 a.m.

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$ATZ.TO Aritzia announces another NCIB to buy back shares. The last NCIB Artizia did spanned over 1 year, amounting to 1.7 Million shares for a cash consideration of 69.2 Million.

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Jan. 18, 2023, 3:35 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Front page of Bloomberg.

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Jan. 13, 2023, 5:36 p.m.

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One more comment for those looking to average down, and scale into a position, we could easily see much lower prices. Q4 earnings will not be out until May. A shaky market, recession fears, etc. could drive this lower. Use caution! Long term thesis still very much intact.

Jan. 12, 2023, 3:04 p.m.

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The best investments are made when there is a disconnect between what you know and what the market is pricing in. Anyone who is familiar with Aritzia knows how large of an issue low inventory has been.

Jan. 12, 2023, 2:50 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Market is punishing Aritzia for high inventory levels. I pointed to this being a positive catalyst months ago. Can only treat it as an opportunity over the longterm as they prove they can sell through it in the next Q's.

Muskoka Capital
$ATZ $ATZ.TO A major catalyst for Aritzia in Q3/Q4 will be their inventory. Executive Chair Brian Hill said "they are doubling down on proven sellers" and that they were "grossly" under-inventoried last year and left a lot of sales on the table.

Jan. 12, 2023, 2:45 p.m.

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Did the Aritiza earning call go down for any of you guys?

Jan. 11, 2023, 10:23 p.m.

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Replying to @The Transcript

@TheTranscript_

The Transcript
Inventories up 188% 👀 $ATZ.TO

Jan. 11, 2023, 10:03 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Some comments on Aritzia's inventory - Inventory is heavily concentrated in client favourites, will moderate in Q4, in line with sales by Q2 2024 - Inventory includes on hand, in transit and in factory - Inventory has arrived "exceedingly early"

Muskoka Capital
$ATZ $ATZ.TO A major catalyst for Aritzia in Q3/Q4 will be their inventory. Executive Chair Brian Hill said "they are doubling down on proven sellers" and that they were "grossly" under-inventoried last year and left a lot of sales on the table.

Jan. 11, 2023, 10:03 p.m.

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Replying to @ValueNotDeadYet

@ValueNotDeadYet Lots of colour on the call regarding inventory.

ValueNotDeadYet
188% increase in inventories... that's normal $ATZ.TO

Jan. 11, 2023, 9:56 p.m.

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Replying to @Supreme Bagholder

@FbBagholder Ahh didn't get to the outlook yet. Definitely a concern hope to hear more on the call.

Supreme Bagholder
@muskokainvestor They revised guidance for this fiscal year to decrease 200-225 basis points. Imo it's still a great quarter, beat on every metric, except GM

Jan. 11, 2023, 9:20 p.m.

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Replying to @Supreme Bagholder

@FbBagholder Gotcha we'll have to see where we end up at the end of fiscal year they were above my estimate of 42.5% for gross profit. They guided for 100-150 BPS decrease for this fiscal year, hoping to see it normalize with Q4 where Todd said expedited freight should ramp off heavily.

Supreme Bagholder
@muskokainvestor "The 310 bps decrease in gross profit margin was primarily driven by ongoing inflationary pressures, additional warehousing costs related to inventory management and foreign currency headwinds"

Jan. 11, 2023, 9:15 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO My estimates which I spent hours on were very close. Real numbers below. Revenue - 625 Million Gross Profit - 270 Million SG&A - 163 Million Income From Operations - 95.3 Million Income Tax Expense - 27.5 Million Adjusted Net Income - 70.7 Million Adjusted EPS - 0.67

Muskoka Capital
$ATZ $ATZ.TO My estimates for Aritzia Q3 Earnings coming after the bell today. Revenue - 643 Million Adjusted EPS - 0.68 Detailed breakdown below.
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Jan. 11, 2023, 9:13 p.m.

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Replying to @Supreme Bagholder

@FbBagholder -300 BSP from where? It's up quarterly by 1.4%

Supreme Bagholder
So nice growth numbers at $ATZ, but i don't think the market will like -300bsp on GM

Jan. 11, 2023, 9:10 p.m.

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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Artizia sets another quarterly revenue record of 624.6 Million in the third quarter. 37.8% year over year growth. Revenue 624.6 Million, Adjusted EPS of 0.67, Adjusted EBIDTA 119.6 Million. Beating analysts expectations on all 3 metrics!

Jan. 11, 2023, 9:08 p.m.

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$ATZ $ATZ.TO My estimates for Aritzia Q3 Earnings coming after the bell today. Revenue - 643 Million Adjusted EPS - 0.68 Detailed breakdown below.

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Jan. 11, 2023, 3:59 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Basically, I am not at all concerned about the revenue figure as I am expecting a lot of retail store growth. Primarily due to the opening of Winnipeg, Stanford, Markham, Yorkdale, Portland, + holiday shopping. The numbers below the top line will be far more important.

Jan. 5, 2023, 7:12 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Here is another rough model with a lower rev number with slightly worse gross profit / SG&A numbers.

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Jan. 5, 2023, 7:08 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO Here is a rough model for what a big beat on revenue with the expected gross profit / SG&A numbers could look like.

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Jan. 5, 2023, 7:06 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO I am quite confident in a big beat on the revenue guidance Aritzia provided for Q3 which was 595 on the high side. Any positive surprise on gross profit / SG&A can lead to a beat on EPS but we know inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions are still apparent.

Jan. 5, 2023, 6:59 p.m.

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$ATZ.TO CFO Todd Ingledew said Q4 22 was the peak for expedited freight. We can expect this quarter to experience similar pressures easing into Q4 23. Based on the outlook Aritzia gave on gross profit I am expecting 42.5% gross profit with 27% SG&A.

Jan. 5, 2023, 6:57 p.m.

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Jan. 23, 2025, 1:58 a.m.

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Antler has strong Christmas in-store and online

Jan. 22, 2025, 8:08 a.m.

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‘Made in China’: Why Daniel Fletcher joined Chinese label Mithridate

Jan. 22, 2025, 5:30 a.m.

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Running’s Big Fashion Opportunity

Jan. 22, 2025, 5:30 a.m.

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Can Stone Island Scale Without Losing Its Spirit?

Jan. 22, 2025, 5:30 a.m.

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The Future of Online Resale Is Offline

Jan. 22, 2025, 5:30 a.m.

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My first job in fashion: Rick Owens

Jan. 22, 2025, 5:30 a.m.

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emtec Electronic strengthens its business in North America

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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Spanish company MEL Composites partners with ARESA Shipyards

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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No force or effect of OECD Global Tax Deal in US: White House

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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Trump promises tariffs, taxes on other countries in inaugural address

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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German brand Puma showcases iconic models at Paris Fashion Week

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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South India cotton yarn stable, labour shortage causes slow demand

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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President Donald Trump issues ‘America First Trade Policy’

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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India-EU strengthen trade ties in Brussels to meet global challenges

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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Swiss’ Richemont records sales of $6.51 bn in Q3 2024, up 10% YoY

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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EU, Malaysia relaunch negotiations for planned bilateral FTA

Jan. 22, 2025, 1:53 a.m.

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Louis Vuitton: Designing friendship

Jan. 21, 2025, 11:07 p.m.

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American Exchange Group acquires Urban Skin Rx

Jan. 21, 2025, 9:36 p.m.

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Ralph Lauren names Bob Ranftl as COO, Mercedes Abramo to lead North America

Jan. 21, 2025, 9:18 p.m.

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Skechers opens first-ever Skechers Performance store

Jan. 21, 2025, 9:15 p.m.

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The Debrief | The Evolving Art of Brand Collaborations

Jan. 21, 2025, 6:47 p.m.

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Kantar Group announces plans to sell Kantar Media

Jan. 21, 2025, 5:58 p.m.

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Adidas seals turnaround year with strong fourth-quarter sales

Jan. 21, 2025, 5:46 p.m.

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Adidas reports fourth-quarter sales and profitability gains

Jan. 21, 2025, 5:46 p.m.

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No day-one tariffs but Trump plans trade overhaul, official says

Jan. 21, 2025, 5:38 p.m.

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- Spanx launches denim sculpting collection with Lycra FitSense

Jan. 21, 2025, 5:29 p.m.

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